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[Name removed]

[Polybius]

1. Biden

If he finishes 4th, he may drop out.

[LongtimeAZDem]

5. ...

[Thekaspervote]

6. Sure

[Sloumeau]

17. In 1992, Bill Clinton got only 2.81% of the vote in Iowa.

He went on to win the Primary, and the Presidency. How did he do it? He was strong in the South, and strong with African Americans. Biden does not have to win either Iowa or New Hampshire. He just needs to win where the African Americans are strong.

[denem]

33. 1992 was not contested.

[Sloumeau]

36. I am not sure what your point is. :)

As far as I know...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_nominating_convention]

The last major party convention whose outcome was in doubt was the 1976 Republican National Convention, when former California Governor Ronald Reagan nearly won the nomination away from the incumbent President, Gerald Ford.

So, what exactly is your point?

[denem]

39. The Iowa Caucuses were not contested in 1992.

The candidates did not campaign against Harkin in Iowa.

[Sloumeau]

44. And somehow Bill Clinton still won the nomination, without winning the Iowa Caucus.

This means it is possible to win the nomination without winning Iowa--whether a person contests it or not.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

32. Lol

Sure

[Scurrilous]

2. Is this CNN? Then it would be Democrats.

Last edited Mon Feb 3, 2020, 07:35 PM - Edit history (1)

[underpants]

3. LOL

[Sloumeau]

12. I believe that Scurrilous is making a joke about how often CNN bashes Democrats. :) nt

[blm]

41. 😄

[TheCowsCameHome]

4. Rush Limbaugh

[trueblue2007]

9. Ruch Limpballs

[Sloumeau]

8. Technically, every candidate has a lot to lose and a lot to gain. :) nt

[krissey]

10. Sanders if he doesn't knock it out of the park.

[Mike 03]

14. Wouldn't it be any candidate accruing less than 15%?

Their delegates go to another candidate.

That could be a misunderstanding, but it's what I read earlier.

[scheming daemons]

15. Anything short of a convincing win for Sanders will be bad for him

His expectations have gone through the roof.

If he were to come in 2nd, it would be a disaster.


If he were to barely come in 1st, it would be troublesome for him.

[krissey]

20. I agree.

[emmaverybo]

23. Agree with everything you said.

[bigbrother05]

16. Mayor Pete, out of top 2 or 3 could be fatal

With his organization and the time spent in Iowa, he can't afford to be seen as an also ran.

Others can run a close 4th (Amy, Elizabeth, etc.) and make the case that they are in the hunt.

After tonight, we should have a 5 person field plus Bloomberg. Yang and Steyer are ideological candidates less affected by the numbers.

[Amishman]

28. Yup, Mayor Pete has tried to make Iowa his focus

A weak showing is probably the end, as he doesn't have a fallback.

[Sienna86]

18. Trump. nt

[redqueen]

19. The top 5.

Should any of them significantly underperform, that could weaken their support going forward.

[phleshdef]

22. Anyone that doesn't get delegates.

[George II]

24. I know someone who has something to lose tonight.

[msongs]

25. donald trump

[katmondoo]

26. Sanders

[Kentonio]

27. Both Bernie and Joe have a lot to lose as the frontrunners

But to be honest Liz, Pete and Amy probably have the most to lose. Unless they put in a respectable performance it could be the end of the road.

[musicblind]

30. Exactly.

I think either of those two candidates can survive all the way down to a lukewarm third place, but if either of them gets fourth or gets a devastatingly low third place... that's gonna be rough.

[Kentonio]

35. To be honest I think Joe could survive 3rd ok but Bernie probably not.

If he can’t get at least 2nd in Iowa then I don’t see this being his year at all, as sad as that would make me.

[musicblind]

29. Out of that list, Yang and Klobuchar.

But, it all depends on where they place.

If Biden places a distant fourth... ouch.

If Sanders places a distant fourth... ouch.

If Warren places a strong second... wow.

If Buttigieg places a strong second... wow.


If any of those places a "lukewarm third" ... eh. I think they can survive that.

[FloridaBlues]

34. Warren because of Nevada and SC coming up. Polling lower for her.

[PBC_Democrat]

37. In order of most to lose: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Yang

Biden - has the highest expectation level. Anything less than a solid second will cripple his already-weak fundraising.

Sanders - is drawing the biggest attendance at rallies. He needs to prove that he can turn that into real votes. Needs a first, second, or strong third.

Warren - slipping in the polls lately. Needs to demonstrate that her support is solid. A fourth or lower and she's out.

Buttigieg - poised to over-achieve. One of the two that survive a fourth place finish. Seems to have a solid base with a lot of upward potential.

Yang - Can survive a fourth place finish. A few people dropping will make his message louder and generate more attention. I see him as the break-thru possibility if he has a good showing.

Just my two cents.

[helpisontheway]

38. Biden and Buttigieg..Biden needs top 3. Buttigieg needs to win because

these voters should his type of voter. African Americans don’t support him. If he can’t win here where can he win?

[Blue_true]

40. Sanders by far.

If the result end with not much of a difference, he only gets bragging rights before facing a slug of states that are not favorable to him.

[themaguffin]

42. This

[brooklynite]

43. Klobuchar

She’s polling lowest of the top tier candidates and may not be viable.