2 winners tonight: the Republican Party and Joe Biden

[Garrett78]

Biden was probably going to finish 4th or even 5th, and the resulting narrative would have been devastating.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party must be positively giddy. The Democratic Party looks incompetent and conspiracy theories will lead to people not trusting the process.

[Dream Girl]

1. Makes you wonder

[scheming daemons]

2. Based on what do you think he was 4th or 5th?

[emmadoggy]

15. Anecdotal, but

based on what I saw at my precinct tonight and what I'm hearing from some others, I'm thinking people are going to be shocked at Biden's results. I also think that Klobuchar will do better than expected. But from what I'm hearing in my area is that Pete is doing very well.

My precinct ended up with 3 delegates for Pete, 3 for Klobuchar, 2 for Warren, and Sanders just barely achieved viability after the second alignment and got 1. Biden got none. There were only 4 people in the Biden camp at the first alignment - not viable. I think 3 of those 4 went to Klobuchar.

In a neighboring precinct, I'm told that Pete had nearly half of all the people in attendance at the first alignment.

Iowa City is the most liberal spot in Iowa, and I heard that one precinct down there was all about Sanders and Warren.

Again, just personal stories, but from some of the talk I'm hearing, I don't think Biden is going to be in the top 3.

[scheming daemons]

17. All of your anecdotes, from your own admission, are from the most liberal areas

In other, more rural areas, at least according to MSNBC.... Biden did well.

[emmadoggy]

19. No, sorry, I wasn't very clear.

Iowa City is the most liberal. I saw something online about that precinct. I am not from there. I am from a red county in the northeast corner of Iowa. In fact, our county chair even stated tonight that our county runs about 22% Democratic and 45% Republican. The other anecdotes I mentioned were from my county and the neighboring county (which is a bit more liberal than mine).

[Amishman]

24. There are well over 1000 sites

And with polls with different leaders, and everyone so close to 15%, each candidate will fail to make viability in many locations.

Remember election day 2004 when everyone was hyped up believing exit polls, line lengths, and other eye witness reports - certain that Bush was going down? The truth is in the big picture, which is obscured at this point. The only remotely useful information we have are the entrance polls, which suggest a very tight race.

We are Jon Snow - out in the cold knowing nothing

[sweetloukillbot]

55. Based on campaign statements

Buttigeig declared victory.
Sanders is contesting that declaration
Warren said she is running close with Pete and Bernie
Klobuchar said she's running close w/ Biden

To me that reads as follows:
Buttigeig
Sanders
Warren
Biden
Klobuchar

Nothing scientific, just sort of logic and decoding their statements.

[Garrett78]

59. What little info we were getting last night indicated he wasn't going to be top 3.

[BeyondGeography]

3. So Biden wins even when he tanks?

I don’t think so. Fifth place? If that’s the case, it’s more like Bloomberg becomes the new Biden in terms of electability.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

16. Well of course... it's Joe!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[BeyondGeography]

18. And if Monmouth still has an A rating after this

ratings are meaningless. They consistently showed him leading in a Iowa.

[denem]

30. DMR / Selzer had Biden 4th at 13%

Looks to have been about right.

[Magoo48]

32. Up is down, 5 is 1...

Where have we seen this kind of rhetoric recently?

[Garrett78]

38. Is the media talking about Biden failing to finish in the top 3? No. Because...

...we still don't have the results. And at this point hardly anyone will give a shit about the results. Biden, I'm sure, is quite pleased that the only narrative coming out of Iowa is that Iowa was a shitshow, that the results - if we ever get any - can't be trusted, and it's off to New Hampshire. No headlines today about Biden performing poorly. No headlines about Sanders or Buttigieg winning.

Biden and the Republican Party are both smiling from ear to ear.

[BeyondGeography]

45. Sure he is

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287473650

[Garrett78]

47. Which only goes to show how bad he is at this campaigning thing. See my post in that thread.

[OneMoreCupOfCoffee]

52. Nice job trying to tie together Joe Biden and the Republican Party.

Seeing right through that BS.

[Garrett78]

57. It's not about tying them together. It happens that both benefit from what took place.

The consensus outside of the DU bubble is that Biden benefits, that it hurts Buttigieg and Sanders, and Trump/Republicans are loving it.

[Baclava]

4. Van Jones said Biden dodged an anvil falling on his head like Wiley Coyote, holy shit

[W_HAMILTON]

5. Van Jones is a fucking idiot, though.

Seeing him on-air is what got me to personally change the channel from CNN to MSNBC the rest of the night.

[OnDoutside]

13. And a dangerous one at that.

[Baclava]

50. lol, i have 2 tee-vees with both of them going, sound off, just captioning

When it scrolled by i had to rewind and listen to it again, he said something about Joe stepping on a banana peel too

[emmaverybo]

6. Well, Van Jones would, wouldn't he?

[DarthDem]

8. Van Jones

Is he still campaigning openly on air for his school buddy Cory Booker? The guy he wouldn't shut up about as the best candidate and had to drop out after garnering about 1% support?

Oh. Well in that case I'll skip his opinion.

[tishaLA]

20. I always think of Van as aa fanboy of

Tulsi, Yang, and the junior senator from VT.

[DarthDem]

48. Sounds About Right

But he did know Booker personally, I believe, before Booker was elected to the Senate or even Newark mayor.

Van seems like a smart guy and a nice person as well but his political instincts could use some refinement.

[W_HAMILTON]

53. It's even worse -- I just seem him as a grifter.

First latching onto Obama, then Trump/Kushner, now that crew of divisive Democrats -- he just seems like an opportunist willing to bend his morals to suit whoever he can use to get more air time to advertise himself.

[Wabbajack_]

7. If BIden is 4th

That will still be devastating, tomorrow.

BLOOMBERG and Dump are the "winners" of this debacle.

[emmaverybo]

10. I think Biden is in for the longer haul. He doesn't do devastation that easily and neither do

his many supporters across the nation and endorsers.

[Wabbajack_]

11. Good

It's one small very White state after all and frankly I don't care who they choose. We need a national primary!!!!!

But I'm saying if he does badly in Iowa, I don't think it makes a difference if the news is delayed 12 hours or not, I just don't understand that reasoning.

[Kentonio]

21. Be careful what you wish for

With a single national primary, we almost certainly wouldn’t have had President Obama.

[Wabbajack_]

36. Maybe

I voted Obama over Clinton but if that's the price of having everyone's vote count EQUALLY then so be it.

Come to think of it, had Clinton won in '08 he would probably be President right now after 2 terms as VP.......

[Kentonio]

37. '08 was pretty brutal, I think the chances of Clinton making him her VP after that were very slim

You notice Obama didn’t pick her for the VP slot.

[Wabbajack_]

68. It made no sense for him to pick her as VP

It would have made all the sense in the world for her to choose him though. Frankly I can't imagine she wouldn't have offered it.

Reagan chose Bush after a nasty race. And he did give her the prime cabinet post, she might have actually preferred that as it allowed her to achieve things on her own and leave in the 2nd term to focus on running and the option of distancing herself from the administration if necessary.

[Amishman]

25. And Biden has to be the favorite if we get a contested convention

As long as he is in reach at all. Endorsements, general election appeal, and stature within the party.

[lapfog_1]

12. no.... even 5th doesn't matter

Iowa never mattered to anyone but Bernie, Amy, and Pete.

Joe will do much better in South Carolina. Warren will do much better in New Hampshire.

This whole process is just going to continue to be confused.

Pay no attention to people trying to make you lose faith in your favorite candidate.

[sunnybrook]

33. Thank You!

I needed that!

[Garrett78]

40. Of course caucuses should be banned. Of course we shouldn't start with 2 of the whitest states.

But narrative matters. Headlines about Biden finishing 4th or 5th, as opposed to headlines all about the shitshow, would have been very damaging. Next thing you know, he's finishing a distant 3rd or 4th in New Hampshire. Then a poor showing in Nevada. Then people in South Carolina start to abandon ship. Everyone is reminded of how poorly Biden's past attempts have gone. It's a snowball effect.

[OneMoreCupOfCoffee]

54. You wish.

Ain't gonna happen.

[Garrett78]

58. That's the point. The Iowa fiasco is why it "ain't gonna happen."

Actually, it could still happen, but the shitshow helps spare Biden to a large extent. Instead of a primetime announcement on election night, we've had nothing but reports about the screwups. Now we're finally getting results, but it's not clear how many will actually care about or trust the results.

[OneMoreCupOfCoffee]

60. Sounds like advanced excuse making for when Biden bounces back.

[Garrett78]

63. Actually, it's glaringly obvious. It's the consensus outside the DU bubble.

Biden benefits, while some wind is taken out of the Buttigieg and Sanders sails.

DU has a habit of denying what is obvious to everyone else.

[OneMoreCupOfCoffee]

66. Nah. Pete will be fine. Bernie looks like he's finished.

Biden has huge wins to come.

America doesn't look like Iowa and New Hampshire. Sorry.

[Garrett78]

67. You're not actually addressing the point I'm making.

As for the demographics of IA and NH, see post #40 again. I already addressed that issue.

[uponit7771]

65. That's giving way too much value to Iowa, Sanders did the same thing in 16 IMHO

[uponit7771]

64. THANK YOU !!! Also, isn't Pete a neighbor candidate?! I'm leaning more and more towards Biden

[rwheeler31]

9. The media has been bashing Biden all week they will just step it up now.

This whole process looked like a disaster even before the counting screw up. Why would anyone want to go, and who decided if you are with a viable candidate you cannot change your mind.

[FloridaBlues]

28. I noticed that to especially the past weekend

[UniteFightBack]

35. That's pretty much all they do is Bash Biden. It's very sad. nt

[Quixote1818]

14. After New Hampshire no one will remember this fiasco. nt

[Garrett78]

41. That all the talk is about the fiasco is the point. Narrative matters...a lot. See post #40.

[bdamomma]

22. You mean

the party of tRump, do not give these jerks the satisfaction that they trying to divide us, no repeats of 2016 again.

We have to remain focused.

[radius777]

23. Iowa and caucuses are the biggest losers.

In 2012 the Repubs had a similar debacle.

We need to get rid of these tiny homogeneous states having so much influence in presidential politics.

The caucus system is a disgrace - de facto voter suppression and chaos all rolled into one.

[apcalc]

26. Caucusing is a mess now and always had been.

There are no RELIABLE conclusions to draw from it.

None.

Let’s move on to primaries.

[FloridaBlues]

29. Have to agree with you.

[Garrett78]

44. See post #40.

[FloridaBlues]

27. Not sure if anyone will take Iowa results seriously after this mess

[bearsfootball516]

31. There's a good point to that.

Joe’s strategy has been to tread water until SC and Super Tuesday when he can run up big totals in the delegate-rich south.

Last night’s debacle means that if Bernie wins and Joe does poorly, Bernie doesn’t get all the great PR and “BERNIE WINS BIG” headlines because the news will have already moved onto the SOTU, followed by the impeachment vote on Wednesday, followed by the New Hampshire debates.

[Garrett78]

43. Yeah, anyone denying that this helps Biden is delusional. See post #40.

[rockfordfile]

34. What the republicans didn't win anything. It just shows that they are desperate.

[totodeinhere]

39. I don't know about that. We already have Trump's campaign manager

saying last night that if they can't even run a caucus how can they be expected to run this country.

[Garrett78]

42. Yep, and anything that undermines faith in the process benefits Trump and the GOP.

[Zolorp]

46. 3 winners

You left out Bloomberg who won by not participating in the mess.

[ArtTownsend]

49. Three: Bloomberg, Sanders, and Trump.

[still_one]

51. The caucus system is a sham, and discriminates against those with mobility issues, and those

who cannot spend several hours in a caucus hall

[Garrett78]

61. For sure, but until something changes...see post #40.

[still_one]

62. Thanks

[33taw]

56. I would like to see official results.

I think Bloomberg is looking the best. If Bernie comes in first, it will be questioned. But this is Iowa, is it really that big?