Brand new Emerson College Polling New Hampshire poll puts Sanders ahead by 19

[Polybius]

The second of a continuous eight day 7 News/ Emerson College Polling tracking poll of New Hampshire Democratic Voters finds Senator Bernie Sanders with a commanding lead in the Granite State at 32% support. Former VP Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren are next with 13%, following them is Senator Amy Klobuchar and Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 12%. No other candidate reached double digits. Data was collected February 1-3, 2020, mixed mode, n=500, margin of error +/- 4.3%.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-hampshire-2020-tracking-poll-night-2-sanders-lead-extends-further

[BeyondGeography]

1. The same Emerson that consistently overstated Bernie's advantage in Iowa?

They and Monmouth (which always had Biden in the lead) should lose their A ratings on Iowa alone.

[Kentonio]

2. We have Iowa results now?

[BeyondGeography]

3. We know Bernie didn't win by seven followed by Biden in second place

[Kentonio]

4. Until we get the results, we don't know anything

Although it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it was totally wrong. Apart from Amy Selzer most Iowa polling is usually all over the place given the caucus structure.

[rpannier]

5. That is always an issue

Who do you support? Candidate A
There seldom is the follow up of "What happens if A doesn't get 15%"
It's hard to know where those people go

[Kentonio]

6. Yeah and even if they do ask for second choice

They don’t (and probably can’t) take into account the horse wrangling when candidates are just under viability and sometimes even just the effect of people spending an hour or two actually discussing issues with their neighbors.

Honestly, despite all the chaos and unpredictability I do love the concept at least of people getting together locally and talking things through before they vote. I just wish there was a way to make it accessible to all.

[rpannier]

7. In addition, what if their 2nd choice also fails to make 15%

[Kentonio]

8. Exactly. To be fair I think we worry too much about polling sometimes.

It's perfectly natural to want to know ahead of time whether our prefered candidate is doing well, but I think sometimes we get too hung up on it (me as much as anyone).

[Loki Liesmith]

9. Pollling a caucus is pointless

[BeyondGeography]

10. At least DMR seems to have gotten the order pretty much right

Monmouth couldn’t have been wider of the mark.

[Polybius]

11. They may be right on this one though

We'll find out in one week.