538 - The importance of an Iowa bounce

[thesquanderer]

Despite its demographic non-representativeness, and the quirks of the caucuses process, the amount of media coverage the state gets makes it far more valuable a prize than you’d assume from the fact that it only accounts for 41 of the Democrats’ 3,979 pledged delegates. More specifically, we estimate — based on testing how much the results in various states have historically changed the candidates’ position in national polls — that Iowa was the second most-important date on the calendar this year, trailing only Super Tuesday. It was worth the equivalent of almost 800 delegates, about 20 times its actual number.
...
there’s a good chance that the candidates who did well in Iowa get screwed, and the candidates who did poorly there get a mulligan...And in some ways that still discounts Iowa’s impact, because several of the campaigns — for better or worse — built their entire strategy around the state. Would Buttigieg have been a major player in the race without Iowa?...it’s not clear why Iowa was afforded so much importance in the first place, and Buttigieg possibly owed his entire presence in the campaign to this quirk in the nomination process. Nonetheless, these were the rules of the game, as every candidate understood them.
...
To be even more blunt: The Iowa Democratic Party’s colossal screw-up in reporting results will potentially have direct effects on the outcome of the nomination process. The failure to report results will almost certainly help Biden, assuming that indications that he performed poorly in Iowa are correct, as they won’t get nearly as much media coverage. And they’ll hurt whichever candidate wins the state — most likely Sanders or Buttigieg. (Although if Sanders winds up finishing in second place or lower, he also might not mind a reduction in the importance of Iowa, especially with one of his best states, New Hampshire, coming up next.)

Furthermore, Iowa is typically a state that winnows the field. But with every candidate either having performed well there, potentially having an excuse for a disappointing finish there, or somewhere in between, it might not do that. Delaying the winnowing process would tangibly increase the chance of a contested convention.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-might-have-screwed-up-the-whole-nomination-process/?ex_cid=2020-tracker

[LeftTurn3623]

1. havent you read from the Biden supporters that

Iowa means nothing?

[Bradshaw3]

6. Unless Biden wins it

Then it would be: game over, all others must drop out now.

[DarthDem]

2. Typical 538 Post

Lots of words; most of it is reasonable; some weirdness, e.g. "t was worth the equivalent of almost 800 delegates, about 20 times its actual number." LOL; okay, sure, guys.

I'll say this and try to be a bit more brief than they were, which is not my custom in other areas of life but hey: Given Iowa's disproportionate role in the presidential nomination process, I'm fine with anything that has the effect of reducing that role.

[texasfiddler]

3. Trump freakin loves this

[IronLionZion]

4. Damn it Iowa, ruining everything again!

First in the nation since always, one would think they would be ready for it.

I'll just be enjoying some until my symbolic June 2 vote for whoever is left. Or do some voter registration and phone banking to get high turnout for November.

One opportunity from this would be to spin Trump/GOP insults at Iowa in a way that gets them to vote Dem against Trump/GOP. Those corn farmers can't write software or similar...

[calguy]

5. I was born and raised in Iowa

Moved out of the state 50 years ago. We used to have a saying about our little home town,
"It's not the end of the world, but you can see it from here."

Actually I have fond memories of growing up in the state. Back then it was a solid blue state, can't figure out what happened since I moved away.

[IronLionZion]

8. Maybe too many liberals moved away and conservatives stayed behind

[Thekaspervote]

7. FYI: Bill Clinton lost IA & NH.. Ia is not nothing, just way too much emphasis on a

Small, rural, 91% white state

[Kentonio]

9. Clinton is a major outlier in that respect.

Iowa has been a major factor in most campaigns in recent decades.