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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:32 PM

 

Yes, Iowa matters. No, Bloomberg is not a contender.

Caucuses are disenfranchising and should be banned. And we shouldn't start with 2 of the whitest states in the US. But those saying Iowa doesn't matter are being ridiculous. Generally speaking, Iowa and New Hampshire both have a big impact on the narrative. And narrative matters...it matters a lot. That said, last night's fiasco certainly dampens the impact Iowa will have this time around. And, with any luck, every remaining caucus state will go to a primary and we won't start with Iowa ever again. Not holding my breath, though.

Regarding all the Bloomberg posts, WTF! I don't care how much he spends, he will not end up with the most delegates. Not even close. Even if the nominee is neither Biden nor Sanders, I'm confident it won't be Mike fucking Bloomberg. Good grief.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply Yes, Iowa matters. No, Bloomberg is not a contender. (Original post)
Garrett78 Feb 2020 OP
still_one Feb 2020 #1
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #5
still_one Feb 2020 #7
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #16
left-of-center2012 Feb 2020 #2
stopbush Feb 2020 #4
Zolorp Feb 2020 #13
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #6
still_one Feb 2020 #8
Zolorp Feb 2020 #14
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #20
Zolorp Feb 2020 #21
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #22
Zolorp Feb 2020 #23
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #24
Zolorp Feb 2020 #26
Bradshaw3 Feb 2020 #30
Zolorp Feb 2020 #31
stopbush Feb 2020 #15
Kurt V. Feb 2020 #3
still_one Feb 2020 #9
Kurt V. Feb 2020 #10
still_one Feb 2020 #12
Kurt V. Feb 2020 #18
still_one Feb 2020 #32
Blue_true Feb 2020 #35
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #11
Kurt V. Feb 2020 #17
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #34
Laelth Feb 2020 #19
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #25
calguy Feb 2020 #27
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #28
Blue_true Feb 2020 #36
Laelth Feb 2020 #37
Vivienne235729 Feb 2020 #29
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #33
pecosbob Feb 2020 #38

Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:34 PM

1. It only matters until the next primary superceeds it

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to still_one (Reply #1)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:39 PM

5. Iowa and New Hampshire always have an outsized influence on the following contests.

 

That's why it's not uncommon to see candidates drop out after Iowa.

Last night's fiasco, though, changes things somewhat. There's a big difference between getting undisputed results during primetime on election night and what we're experiencing this year. This is an absolute shitshow. The Iowa Democratic Party is a laughingstock.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #5)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:44 PM

7. It will be forgotten after Super Tuesday, and I believe that the top 5 candidates will see it

 

through Super Tuesday this time.

It will be after Super Tuesday when I think we will see candidates dropping out.

However, agree with you response 110%


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to still_one (Reply #7)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:00 PM

16. The fiasco will be forgotten, but my point is that the narrative that comes out of IA and NH...

 

...always makes a big difference. To say Iowa doesn't matter, as many posts have claimed, is absurd and not historically accurate.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:37 PM

2. Bloomberg will be the one left standing ...

 

Bloomberg will be the one left standing to pick the pieces,
after the other candidates finish their 'circular firing squad'.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to left-of-center2012 (Reply #2)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:39 PM

4. Yep. With Sanders ascending and Joe faltering, Bloomberg becomes the obvious moderate

 

choice.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to stopbush (Reply #4)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:58 PM

13. If Biden doesn't do at least third next week, I'll be flipping over to Bloomberg after SC.

 

Gotta give him a chance in his firewall, though.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to left-of-center2012 (Reply #2)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:41 PM

6. Tell me how Bloomberg wins a majority of delegates. That isn't going to happen.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #6)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:44 PM

8. +++

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #6)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:59 PM

14. Dropping about $200 million on Super Tuesday

 

Should wrap things up nicely. Super Tuesday is an air game, not a ground game, and only Bloomberg has the cash to pull that off.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Zolorp (Reply #14)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:06 PM

20. Money doesn't equate to votes/delegates. This Bloomberg talk is nuts.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #20)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:08 PM

21. Yes, money does equate to votes, and votes equates to delegates.

 

Saying otherwise is nuts in the 21st century.

Did you see my thread about the homophobe who voted mayor Pete then found out he is gay? Much of the electorate get 100% of their voter information from commercials on TV and swaying that percentage is all it takes.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Zolorp (Reply #21)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:13 PM

22. Read one of the many studies that have demonstrated that you're wrong.

 

Sure, money matters. But the correlation between spending and winning delegates isn't as strong as you think.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #22)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:14 PM

23. Oh yeah? Link those studies

 

Waiting....
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Zolorp (Reply #23)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:29 PM

24. Fine, I'll do the legwork. Here's one:

 

http://theconversation.com/money-in-elections-doesnt-mean-what-you-think-it-does-104452 (scroll down a ways)

And the Freakonomics authors famously wrote about this issue.

Also, there's a big difference between raising a lot of money via donations and spending one's own money. If someone has raised a lot money via small donations, it's safe to say that person has a lot of support. But simply being a billionaire says no such thing. Sure, buying ads helps, and there being millions of ignorant people helps. But Bloomberg winning the Democratic Party nomination ain't happening.

It's all about delegate math. Show me how Bloomberg hypothetically and realistically ends up with a majority of delegates. Where do you see him winning or at least walking away with a large number of delegates on Super Tuesday?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #24)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:55 PM

26. Irrelevent

 

That is about money spent by Democrats compared to Republicans. Apples and oranges, this is about primaries.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Zolorp (Reply #26)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 09:34 PM

30. You asked for a study and got it; then blew off his questions

 

Don't ask for proof if you are only going to reciprocate with unsubstaniated opinion.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Bradshaw3 (Reply #30)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 09:35 PM

31. I'm still waiting for proof

 

HE did not submit a peer reviewed study.

His link has no bearing on spending money in primaries and caucuses.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #6)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:00 PM

15. He needs to do very well on Super Tuesday.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:39 PM

3. the bigger issue isn't caucuses or not at all. the issue is this primary system we have is

 

Antiquated. The whole thing.
1. shorten it to two weeks
2. set a declare by date.
3. Results in 2 days after each.

but institutional failure seems to be the standard in the 21st century.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Kurt V. (Reply #3)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:45 PM

9. Two weeks is too short.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to still_one (Reply #9)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:49 PM

10. why?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Kurt V. (Reply #10)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:57 PM

12. Because they need to be vetted at least for 3 months in my opinion

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to still_one (Reply #12)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:02 PM

18. They've been vetted since summer tho.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Kurt V. (Reply #18)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 09:36 PM

32. I understand our point Kurt, but i think putting the candidates in full campaign

 

mode in the primaries demonstrates their endurance and ability to hold up in a GE

Two weeks is too short for that in my view.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to still_one (Reply #32)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 11:28 PM

35. I agree. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Kurt V. (Reply #3)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 07:56 PM

11. There are all sorts of ways to do things differently, but caucuses need to go.

 

Many people are unable or unwilling to take part in a time-consuming, public spectacle.

I've advocated for starting with 2 or 3 states that reflect our electorate demographically, such as Illinois and Arizona. Then, have a Super Tuesday with 8-10 states a few weeks later. And then have all the rest of the states vote a month after that. Candidates need time to campaign in all the states, and those with less funding and less name recognition deserve a chance to compete.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #11)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:01 PM

17. i like this also. the point is we need an overhaul.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Kurt V. (Reply #17)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 11:06 PM

34. We do. Many of us have been singing that song for a long, long time. Don't hold your breath.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:03 PM

19. Please. Anyone with $50+ billion that he or she is willing to spend is a contender. n/t

 

-Laelth
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Laelth (Reply #19)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:43 PM

25. Buying ads isn't enough. Money doesn't equate to votes/delegates.

 

Show me, with delegate math, a realistic path to the nomination for Bloomberg. Where is he going to win?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #25)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:59 PM

27. Ask me that question after Super Tuesday

 

Until then none of us really know anything despite what think we might know.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to calguy (Reply #27)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 09:05 PM

28. LOL, after Super Tuesday. That defeats the purpose.

 

All these "Bloomberg can win" people should be able to demonstrate a path to the nomination using delegate math. Where is he going to win on Super Tuesday?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #25)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 11:31 PM

36. Bloomberg is starting to get crowds on stops.

 

I believe that he is being the most strategic by far. The only other than comes close is Buttegieg.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #25)

Wed Feb 5, 2020, 12:40 PM

37. I agree that his money alone is not enough, but he was the Mayor of New York.

 

He's currently gaining in the polls, and the convention is a ways off yet. Anything can happen (especially if you have a fortune that you're willing to spend to make it happen).

We shall see what we see.

-Laelth
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 09:19 PM

29. Funny you should say that bc Iowa just proved that it doesn't matter THAT much...

 

...thus proving Bloomberg's point. I'm not voting for Bberg at this point but to say he is not a contender is sheer folly. If anything, I think it's the opposite. He's got a whole lot more millions to blow through yet and everything he has done has been spot on.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Vivienne235729 (Reply #29)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 11:05 PM

33. Clearly, as I already said, Iowa's impact this year has been dampened. In general, though...

 

...it's foolish and historically inaccurate to say Iowa doesn't matter (and even this year it's not meaningless). IA and NH always have an outsized influence on the narrative. And, usually, a candidate drops out after Iowa--that wouldn't happen if it didn't mean anything. In 2016 it was O'Malley. In 2008 it was Biden and Dodd. In 2004 it was Gephardt. And so on.

There's a reason why, outside of the DU bubble, the consensus is that Biden benefits from the mess that is Iowa (while the wind is somewhat taken out of the Buttigieg and Sanders sails). A prime time, undisputed announcement of the results with Biden finishing a distant 4th would have been far more damaging than what we're seeing with the absolute shitshow put on by the Iowa Democratic Party. It's 24 hours later, we only have partial results, what results we do have will be questioned (right or wrong), and nobody walks away with great momentum. As a result, Biden's odds of finishing 2nd in New Hampshire are greater than they would be otherwise. He may end up 3rd or 4th anyway, but the Iowa chaos boosts his chances. 2nd in NH and 1st or 2nd in NV will help him maintain frontrunner status. Not because IA, NH and NV produce a ton of delegates, but because - again - the media narrative matters...a lot!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Wed Feb 5, 2020, 02:15 PM

38. Saying it here and now...I won't vote for Bloomberg

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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