My take on the Iowa Caucuses...

[Drunken Irishman]

1) Biden is in dire need of something to prolong his campaign. The Iowa results weren't the worst case scenario for Biden (I'd say that would've been a sizable Sanders win) but it was not anywhere near the best-case. Yes, Biden likely was aided by the lack of actual reporting last night, and since the SOTU bleeds into tomorrow's coverage, with Trump's acquittal vote then sucking up all the energy, he again benefits from an overall lack of reporting. But he needs something positive soon or his campaign is over. I say this as one of the most vocal Biden supporters on this site. And that something can't wait until Nevada or South Carolina because these primaries do not act in a vacuum.

I don't think Biden needs to win New Hampshire but he needs to be competitive or he runs the risk of hemorrhaging support between New Hampshire and South Carolina.

The South Carolina Primary is Feb. 29th. If Biden loses New Hampshire badly, which is a week from this past Tuesday, he'll have nearly two weeks of trying to stave off an implosion - and I think Nevada would only add to it. Again, I don't think Biden needs to win New Hampshire. But he needs a strong showing or I think his campaign is all but done. Right now, if the RCP polls hold, I think Biden can sustain a loss if he loses 27-18 to Sanders there (with other candidates getting the rest). But if the margin turns out to be similar to the Emerson poll, where Biden trails Bernie and Mayor Pete 32-17-13, I'm not sure how he bounces back because by the time South Carolina rolls around, he may not have the fundraising and endorsement support to win there.

2) Bernie's inability to claim an outright win in Iowa hurts. Bernie got what he needed from Biden, a complete fizzle, but he didn't get what he needed against Mayor Pete. Pete's apparent victory there is not devastating for Bernie but it does leave a few questions regarding his campaign. I think Bernie is better positioned right now than Biden to win the nomination but I also think Bernie left open the door to losing the nomination by not winning a resounding victory in Iowa. If New Hampshire trends closer over the next week, which Biden needs, we could find a scenario where, after the first four states, the race is still not decided, with Pete getting Iowa, Sanders getting a narrow or close win in New Hampshire, with maybe Sanders or Biden winning in Nevada and Biden winning South Carolina. Then it's on to Super Tuesday for a pretty important showdown.

It's kind of ironic because both Biden and Bernie got help in round about ways - Bernie by Biden struggling a bit more than expected and Biden getting help from Sanders not outright winning the caucus. And yet, both may be on shakier grounds today than they were 24 hours ago.

3) It's time to take Mayor Pete seriously. It's also time for him to prove he can win the support of POC. Pete may very well do well in New Hampshire, but Nevada and South Carolina, along with Super Tuesday, is going to really prove his ability to build the coalition of voters needed to not only win the nomination but also win the presidency. Maybe Pete's wins in Iowa, and a strong showing in New Hampshire, sway a lot of these voters. But despite Pete always doing well in Iowa polls (at least, the last few months), he has not done nearly as well in Nevada. The two most recent polls there give Mayor Pete 6% and 8% overall. Those are not numbers of a front-runner. In South Carolina, it's 7% and 4%. He has to do better to stay in this over the long haul. I think he put people on notice, though, and I'm interested to see where he goes from here - specifically in these two states.

4) Warren is the biggest enigma in this. Her polling better than Biden is a win - but the polls for her in New Hampshire are just awful. The last three polls have put her 10% and 11% overall in support - fourth in all three. In fact, two polls have her tied with Klobuchar. Warren had problems even before Iowa and her distant third-place showing in a state that, not too long ago, she looked poised to win, is just as concerning as Biden's flameout. Both can't afford a dismal finish in New Hampshire.

5) Where Bernie has an advantage is the lack of alternatives to Biden. On its face, Mayor Pete seems to be the one but if he struggles in Nevada and South Carolina, and then enters Super Tuesday with less overall momentum, he could find his viability vanish quite quickly. Mayor Pete does have some fundraising success, which will allow him to play for a bit longer, but the Democrats aren't working with an infinite amount of time here. If Biden performs poorly in New Hampshire, and loses Nevada, but either ekes out a win in South Carolina, or comes in second, with Mayor Pete still stuck at less than ten-percent in both Nevada and SC, by that point, Bernie might just solidify himself as a front-runner and become the presumptive nominee by the end of Super Tuesday. Not a prediction - just a possible scenario. Because of this schedule, I also don't see Bloomberg gaining quite the traction needed.

Now Warren can reenter the picture as the Bernie Alternative if she climbs back into contention in New Hampshire and overtakes Biden there, maybe finishing a close third, where she can claim comeback status. But right now, I don't know how likely that is.

Iowa answered some questions but left us with a lot more.

Basically, if you're the four candidates I mentioned above, I think this is their pathway to the nomination:

Mayor Pete: Biden flames out in New Hampshire and it's clear that he's Bernie's biggest challenge, which means, almost certainly, that the more moderate voters will coalesce around his nomination. If Pete can finish second to Sanders, while Biden is a distant third or fourth, there's an opening and I wouldn't be surprised if his numbers improved in Nevada and South Carolina fairly rapidly. If, however, Biden bounces back, even if he loses New Hampshire narrowly, or keeps it marginally respectable, things will get interesting between these two groups.

Bernie: A resounding victory in New Hampshire + Biden slipping in Nevada and South Carolina. while Mayor Pete still struggles to convince POC to support his campaign. If Biden collapses in New Hampshire, and Mayor Pete can't improve his numbers in Nevada and South Carolina, I've got to think the race is over.

Biden: Much more competitive in New Hampshire than Iowa, which will buy him some time to get to the more diverse states that give him an opportunity to turn things around. Make no mistake about it: Joe Biden's campaign is not dead. It's not even on life support. However, it may be if he gets blown out in New Hampshire. But a close defeat? He can start the turn around right before South Carolina. That's what turned things around for Obama - who lost New Hampshire in a stunner in 2008 and then Nevada like a week later, before a blowout win in South Carolina changed the narrative heading into Super Tuesday. But Biden can't afford a dispiriting, question inducing loss again in NH. If he comes in fourth again, it's game over. Third might be game over, too, unless it's a bunched up group of candidates. But Biden needs to be shooting for a strong second-place showing, where he can declare it's a two-person race heading into Nevada and he can start attracting those who don't support Sanders.

Warren: I don't think Warren needs to win New Hampshire. But she's basically in the same boat as Biden. A second place finish would be huge for her. I think if she finishes second to Sanders here, she instantly becomes the Bernie Alternative and has a realistic shot at going the whole way. But the problem is, I don't know if I see Warren winning New Hampshire, or even finishing second. Unlike Biden, who had strong polling numbers in NH before the caucus, Warren was floundering there as of late and I don't really think her Iowa performance is going to help her any, especially if Mayor Pete solidifies himself third there - or passes Biden for second (or shit, wins the primary).

At the end of the day, I couldn't tell you which scenario is the most likely. I do feel, though, beyond a stunning comeback, that Warren's scenario is the least likely. I actually think Warren was the most damaged by Iowa's results because, while she still finished ahead of Biden, I don't think she did anything in the caucus to change the trajectory of her campaign in New Hampshire and even Nevada or South Carolina. And in both states, she trails Biden by +10 (Nevada) and 20 (SC). The only reason I think Warren is the most damaged by Iowa's results, and not Biden (and no joke, I think he was damaged) is that Biden's trajectory was still much stronger heading into the caucus than Warren's. Now that might change and maybe Warren campaigns like hell and pulls a Clinton Stunner (both in '92 and '08) but I don't know if I buy it.

So, we head into New Hampshire, which will be even more important than Iowa and hopefully better run. But for Warren and Biden, it's do-or-die because I don't foresee either candidate coming back from a lopsided loss.

[denem]

1. Agreed.

[krissey]

2. A white, rural, young Iowa caucus wasn't Biden's demographics. Or Warrens.

It was Sanders and Buttigieg. The two on the top. I figure Sanders is the biggest loser with his showing. He had to have a landslide of this demographics, but it looks like Buttigieg will even pull out the win.

Biden should have done better though than what he did. That has to be disappointing. We will have to see.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. I agree - but perception is reality in politics.

And the perception right now is that Biden and Warren weren't as competitive in Iowa as many thought both campaigns would be a month ago. That's going to be a perception they'll have to change heading into New Hampshire, because if either get trounced there, even if you speculate about the demographics not favoring the candidate (and NH is just as white, and even more rural, than Iowa), the narrative is going to be set that Biden and Warren are done.

But if Biden and Warren can bounce back and show respectably in NH? The narrative changes completely.

[krissey]

5. I think Warren held on with what happened with her numbers the last month.

I would like to see her number rise some in what is left with Iowa. But I think this is worst for Sanders momentum. A white rural caucus should have been all Sanders, and it isn't.

[Thekaspervote]

8. Yes!! That's why there was such spin by the sanders camp and his supporters before caucus

[Kentonio]

81. Not really.

Some of his vote is certainly white and rural, but it’s worth remembering that white and rural also quite often equal more conservative. Bernie’s base is the young, not the rural.

[comradebillyboy]

92. What you say is true. But a loss never looks good or improves

a candidates standing.

[ibegurpard]

4. I for one

appreciate the rational and logical breakdown you've presented instead of a bunch of rah-rah spin on behalf of one campaign or another.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Biden needs to get to those states.

Two blowout losses in Iowa and New Hampshire would be very difficult for Biden to bounce back from, especially if that lack of success kneecaps his support in Nevada and South Carolina.

I agree Biden is in good shape if he can retain his support heading into those primaries. But polls shift rapidly in the wake of momentum.

Case in point: 2008.

Prior to the 2008 Iowa Caucus (held on Jan. 3rd), Clinton led Obama by an average of one-point in South Carolina.

Just days after winning the Iowa Caucus, Obama led by 20 and eventually won the state by nearly 30 points just a little over three weeks after winning Iowa.

The race changed rapidly. I hate ot say it, but Biden's lead isn't a lock in South Carolina. If he gets blown out in New Hampshire, and then loses Nevada, there's a very good possibility he'll lose South Carolina, too.

Now you're right that the map favors Biden if he can survive to that point. If he loses New Hampshire competitively, and then wins Nevada, or comes in a close second, and then trounces Bernie in South Carolina, it's game on.

But if he crawls into South Carolina with two lopsided losses and maybe even three with Nevada? Sorry, I don't see him winning.

[krissey]

11. That is the issue with Biden. Two huge losses is going to present reminders of other runs of his.

He is running off being the best to beat Trump. It is not going to look much like that. Hillary pulled out Iowa, a tough state for her. So she did not go into super Tuesday, weakened. I agree. Warren could be the one that gets the advantage with that.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Hillary also was aided by it being a two-person race from start-to-finish...

I think the only way Warren gets that advantage is if she can be competitive in New Hampshire, too.

[krissey]

15. Right, and right. I agree about Warren having a surprising show in New Hampshire.

[Garrett78]

24. Exactly. A poor showing in NH and NV would remind everyone that Biden's previous attempts...

...to win the nomination ended very quickly. Next thing you know, he's barely winning SC.

IA and NH don't matter because of the number of delegates, or because they reflect our electorate. They matter because of the narrative they produce. That's why we typically see candidates drop out after IA and after NH.

I hate caucuses, and I think it's absurd that we start with 2 of the whitest states in the US, but those dismissing IA and NH as inconsequential have not paid attention to history.

[krissey]

25. Right. People still have time to scatter and find another to put their vote behind.

I do not know how solid Biden's support is especially if he does not appear to be the easy one to beat Trump, anymore. The simple fact he has had that behind him from the start is what has gained him a lot of support. That is the support I can see Biden losing. Not the fact that voters are enthused with Biden, but the fact they thought he would have an easy run.

[Scurrilous]

28. The narrative, ROFL.

What was the narrative when Bernie was mathematically eliminated and still went on. Oh yes. 'It's a good thing'. LOL Google it. That's what they said. @#$% the narrative. And Iowa and NH are inconsequential. It's a race to 1990. Not 100.

[Drunken Irishman]

31. You sound like the supporter of every losing campaign ever.

It's a marathon, not a sprint...blah, blah, blah.

Sooner or later Biden is going to have to step up and win. Look up the last time a candidate won the nomination after losing the first three major contests.

[Scurrilous]

38. LOL

Gotta go. Sell it to the others.

[Drunken Irishman]

42. Nothing to sell. If Biden gets blown out in three straight races, he's done.

[Garrett78]

45. Trump finished a close 2nd in IA and won NH easily. Not the example you want to be using.

Disliking the impact the media narrative has doesn't change the fact that the media narrative has a big impact. Nor does it change the fact that only 1 candidate has won the nomination after losing both IA and NH, and it was a very strong showing in NH and the resulting narrative that propelled that candidate forward (not to mention IA was pretty much nullified that year due to there being an Iowan in the race).

History simply doesn't support your position. Again, not liking that history doesn't make it go away.

[Drunken Irishman]

47. Biden needs to show in NH.

That's all I'm saying. He can't finish a distant fourth. If he does, I don't believe he can overcome the negative press he'd recieve to win the nomination.

Their importance is real, tho, even if artificially inflated by the media. The reality is that had Trump lost NH in 2016, he's probably not president right now. But that win turned things around. Conversely, had Obama won NH in 2008, I guarantee you that primary is over by Super Tuesday but Hillary's winning gave her new life and she (almost) went the distance. Moreover, had Bernie lost NH, I think 2016 wraps up way sooner.

The problem is that we're talking about a potential blowout loss. If Biden polls at 11% behind Bernie and Mayor Pete, his climb to the nomination is going to be steep.

If he makes it close? Then game on.

With all that said, it's not like I want this. But it's how I see it and I pray Biden's team realizes the importance of NH.

[Garrett78]

34. You can deny history all you want, but that doesn't make it go away.

Only 1 candidate has won the nomination after losing both IA and NH, and that candidate was propelled forward by a strong finish in NH and the resulting "comeback kid" narrative. That also happened in a year when IA was essentially nullified by there being an Iowan in the race.

If you don't think the media narrative makes a big difference, you're kidding yourself.

Your comment about Sanders continuing after he was eliminated is completely irrelevant.

[radius777]

55. Despite history, I think for Biden NV and SC

are more a test of his viability, since Biden's 'firewall' is PoC, like Hillary's was.

In 2016 Hillary basically tied in IA and lost NH badly - but then came back and won NV and SC.

NH is Sanders' home turf basically. Agree that IA was a bad loss for Biden and his national polls are dropping, and if he loses NH badly it would further the narrative that he's done.

But, then if he has a surprisingly strong finish in NV - the narratives will turn around and he'll be the comeback kid going into SC with a head of steam. So I guess NV is the make or break contest for Biden.

[treestar]

67. SC voter changes mind because of NV

How dumb would that be?

[Thekaspervote]

27. Thx Scurrilous!

I keep saying this but no one wants to look at the hard numbers...just spin it for their prefered candidate!

Current 538 prediction
Of 57 states and territories that will vote sanders wins 15, one of which it appears he has lost and Biden takes 42. Now tell me how any candidate is going to pull the legs out from under that!

99+% of the country isn’t going to make their minds up by what happened in IA or N.H. the pundits are spinning it for sure, and the demise of Biden’s campaign has been a feature thread here and else where..


Looks who’s still standing

[Scurrilous]

33. You're welcome. See you tomorrow.

i

[Drunken Irishman]

32. If Biden has abandoned NH, he will get routed and won't be the nominee.

You can bookmark this post btw

[Garrett78]

41. Biden's campaign has done little in NH, but I suspect the Iowa result has them rethinking.

I'm sure Biden will be spending a lot of time in NH over the next week. His campaign knows what many within the DU bubble deny, which is that a poor showing in both IA and NH would be very, very bad news for Biden.

[Drunken Irishman]

43. Yes. Biden needs a competitive primary. If he doesn't get it, he's gone.

Tbh Biden's campaign is trending toward Rudy Giuliani status right now. In 2008, he led nationally for most the primary but then a dismal showing in Iowa, and a no show in NH, changed the narrative entirely. Giuliani then made Florida his firewall but after embarrassing losses, his support plummeted there and he lost.

I hope Biden doesn't make the same mistake and pass on NH to focus his firewall on SC or he'll see the same outcome as Rudy in 2008.

[treestar]

58. There are 57 contests

You're thinking the first two can decide it for a candidate. And they aren't even representative of the population.

[Drunken Irishman]

59. It doesn't matter if they're representative...

No Democratic candidate in the modern history of campaigning has lost badly in Iowa and New Hampshire and been able to power on through those 57 contests.

Not once. If Biden gets blown out in NH, he won't be the nominee.

[treestar]

61. That doesn't mean it always has to happen that way

There is plenty of time to make up for it.

[Drunken Irishman]

63. It doesn't. But history never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.

Biden's team needs to know this.

[emmaverybo]

36. No joke. No malarkey. THIS.

[Scurrilous]

39. ...

[treestar]

57. +1 the overhype of a state because it goes first

is silly. Especially when it is demographically unrepresentative.

[Scurrilous]

74. It is so stupid and insulting.

They're first because they strive to be always first. I saw how mush money is spent in Iowa. It's good for the economy. They'll cling to that position forever. But just because they need the cash doesn't mean 170,000 people in Iowa are more important than states that follow. It's a stupid argument. The media spins stuff like that but they're idiots selling ad time. And the demographics are a crime for anyone arguing that point'. Look at what you are saying,' Oy.

[treestar]

86. It's a media creation too

the candidates spending so much time there is because if they didn't the media would go on and on about it. We have to quit letting the talking heads convince of things that help them make money and have no other discernible purpose.

[Scurrilous]

91. Elvis shot at his TV a lot.

The media is out of control. I don't want to say anymore because I could be here all day. But they're a big part of the problem.

[still_one]

49. Problem is too many candidates running. Another problem which very few in the MSM

talk about is the discrimination of the caucus

If people believe that Biden is out because of Iowa, I would ask them do they believe in a system that discriminates against those with mobility issues and those who cannot spend hours in a caucus hall, along with the fact that people badgering each other to vote for their candidate during the process is representative of the country and the way voting should be?

2008 didn’t have as many candidates taking votes away from each other

In addition, Sanders and Warren represent similar voting demographics. Biden, Mayor Pete, and Klobacer all represent their similar. similar voting demographics

Percentage wise there are more votes in the Biden, Klobacher, Mayor Pete block than in the Sanders, Warren block

While the flawed process of the caucus needs to be taken with a large grain of salt, I think the message from Iowa is if you go too far to the left, the moderates prevail, and the Kolbacher, Biden, Mayor Pete seem to confirm that.

While still too early, I think that observation should be a warning to us that if we go too far to the left we jeopardize our chances in the GE

It will depend on which candidates are standing before Super Tuesday

The question is will one or more of the candidates of the Biden, Mayor Pete, Klobuchar groupbow out before Super Tuesday.

I don’t believe that is likely with the Sander Warren block

Potentially we are headed fro a very divided convention, with no clear winner, and that would be very bad

[Drunken Irishman]

62. I'm not saying Biden is out.

But if Biden only gets 13% in New Hampshire and is a distant third? He's done.

No Democratic candidate has gotten waxed in Iowa and NH and come back to win the nomination.

Clinton won Iowa, and lost badly in NH in 2016, but at least she won Iowa.

Obama won Iowa in 2008 and narrowly lost to Hillary in NH.

Kerry won both Iowa and NH, which solidified his front-runner status, in 2004.

Bill Clinton, and every other Dem, was non-competitive in Iowa due to Tom Harkin running, but Clinton finished a strong second and called himself the Comeback Kid after most everyone had written him off - but had Clinton not clawed back in NH for a finish where he needed 26% in a crowded field, he would have not won the nomination. NH defined him as a serious contender.

In 1988, Gephardt won Iowa but Dukakis won NH by 17 points - then the nomination.

In 1984, Mondale won Iowa with nearly 30% of the support and lost NH.

In 1976, Carter won the most delegates of any actual candidate out of Iowa and then New Hampshire.

Bill Clinton is the only candidate since the primary calendar was overhauled for the Democrats who's not actually won either of the first two - but his showing in NH made him the de facto winner.

If Biden is crushed in NH, like he was in Iowa, it's game over.

[still_one]

72. These are unique times Irish. Not only are there too many candidates, many of those candidates

are duplicating each other

Super Tuesday will determine the viability of Biden in my opinion

[Drunken Irishman]

75. I agree Biden is in it through Super Tuesday regardless

But his polls are going to start slagging and his support is going to become more shaky. He needs a good showing in NH or those who are only supporting him because they think he can beat Trump + is the best alternative to unseating Bernie will get cold feet and look at other candidates.

With so many candidates, you've got to have the momentum to stick out. If this was a Sanders-Biden race, I absolutely agree with you. But it's not. It's a Sanders-Biden-Warren-Mayor Pete-Bloomberg race and that means there's more options for those skittish candidates.

A blowout loss in NH, where he finishes 15+ points behind Sanders, and even behind Mayor Pete, as the polls are suggesting right now, will not bode well for Super Tuesday.

[still_one]

83. I am not optomistic about his showing in NH, especially based on the polls you just cited.

Another problem Biden will have in NH is he up against three New Englanders. Sanders, Warren, and Deval Patrick.

The Biden campaign has not pulled punches from the start. They did not feel they would do well in Iowa or NH. However, if he doesn't do well in Nevada, I think that will be very bad for his viability

The stakes are also very high for Klobuchar in NH. If she does well in NH, and was somehow able to get into at least third place, I think that would be a major boost to her campaign, and keep her alive through Super Tuesday.

[Thekaspervote]

17. Thx for that great breakdown of the real numbers.

At 538 if you scroll thru the page “who will win the nomination,” out of 57 states and territories that will vote the prediction is sanders 15, and it looks like he just lost one...and 42 go to Biden.

NH is also an expected win for sanders. I don’t think it’s probable that voters will change their prefered vote over NH or IA. Especially now with one going to pete and more than likely the other to sanders. Seriously, if you look at the numbers laid out here, if IA had been first then FL or any other state then NH..

Just MHO, sanders gambled and spent big on a resounding win in IA thinking the momentum would carry him going forward. That’s been his campaign stump from the beginning. That is gone.

[Drunken Irishman]

37. 538's numbers have not updated to include Iowa's results.

With an update of Iowa's results, you're going to see Biden's numbers change dramatically. Based on the scenario Silver mapped out today, 538 gives Biden just a 21% chance of winning a majority, with Bernie having the best chance at 36%.

He broke down three scenarios and this appears to be the scenario we're seeing (Mayor Pete winning Iowa).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/buttigieg-and-or-sanders-are-going-to-win-iowa-what-happens-next/?ex_cid=2020-tracker

[Thekaspervote]

7. Here's some more numbers to ponder

Link to tweet

?s=21

Link to tweet

?s=21

Biden still leads nationally. Fox News poll out Sunday shows him beating trump head to head by 9 pts

[dualboy24]

46. That post by Zachary Asher is not very logical

The contest in 2016 was for all intense between Hillary and Bernie, there was Margin O'Malley but he had virtually no support. The caucus this time had multiple big names to split the popular votes.

We still don't have the final pledged count yet either, so not sure who has the majority, or tie.

[Garrett78]

48. You're being too kind. Asher's tweet makes him come off as a moron.

His extrapolation is beyond absurd. It's hard to believe a fully functioning adult could post such a thing.

[Garrett78]

10. That pretty much sums up my take, as well.

I wouldn't say Warren was damaged, per se, but she wasn't helped. The damage done to Biden was lessened by the fiasco. Instead of a prime time announcement of an undisputed result, showing Biden in a distant 4th, the dominant narrative over the last 24 hours has been about the lack of results and about whether the results (when they do come in) can be trusted. Because of that, Biden's chances of finishing 2nd in NH are greater than if the Iowa caucus had gone smoothly. A failure to finish in the top 2 in either NH or NV would be devastating, and could still happen, but he has to be pleased that the IA caucus was a mess. And some of the wind was taken out of the Buttigieg and Sanders sails.

[krissey]

14. I agree that the fiasco helped Biden.

[emmaverybo]

12. Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren will not get the AA support they need. With or without NH, Joe

has great prospects in many more states than his competition and is still predicted to win more delegates. He has been endorsed by 15 CBC members to his competitors’ 1. Once Biden gets to S.C. he will keep gaining momentum, potentially very difficult to overcome.

Yes, in the meantime unless Obama comes out and endorses him, media and supporters of other candidates and maybe some of his own fair weather friends will count him as dead. That won’t make it so.

[Garrett78]

16. People in SC will abandon ship if Biden does poorly in NH and NV. Narrative matters.

If Biden finishes no better than 3rd in either NH or NV, there will be a lot of talk about his support collapsing. And that talk will grow legs and walk. Even if Biden were to still win SC, it could be much closer than expected, and then Super Tuesday could go very poorly for him.

Biden needs to do well in New Hampshire.

[Thekaspervote]

19. No... the AA community will not be swayed by 2 small, 90+ white rural states

They are savvy and smarter than that. In fact they are incensed by all the hype of the media “anointing” a nominee without their voice!!

FYI: Bill Clinton lost both IA & NH

[Garrett78]

21. B. Clinton is the only candidate to win the nomination after losing both IA and NH.

And B. Clinton doing well in NH was key to that happening. So, you've actually helped make my case. The "comeback kid" narrative that followed Clinton's surprisingly strong finish in NH propelled him forward.

H. Clinton was expected to win SC and to win the nomination with ease in 2008. When Obama demonstrated viability (and then some) in Iowa, that's when the outlook changed.

It's absurd that we have caucuses. It's absurd that we start with 2 of the whitest states in the US. No argument there. But the fact remains that IA and NH always have an outsized influence--not because they have a lot of delegates or because they reflect our electorate, but because of the narrative they produce. Narrative matters...a lot.

Lastly, let's not ignore the Latino vote.

[LanternWaste]

68. Your faith-based prophecy seems lacking in evidence and objective data to support it

But I s'pose that's why they're called faith-based and prophecies rather than researched analysis.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. Biden isn't immune to black support softening...

It's the nature of the beast. If they feel he's floundering, I think it's very possible they pull back a bit.

If Biden struggles, losing Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, he may win South Carolina but if it's a narrow victory, it might not matter.

It'd definitely give him a boost heading into Super Tuesday but by that point, nearly a month from now, he could be low on funds and trailing nationally.

[Thekaspervote]

20. He just announced his biggest monthly campaign donations since he entered the race

Money isn’t going to be a problem

As far as his support in the AA community softening I really think you are under estimating his support there.

Who do you think they will move to? They might have moved to Harris, Booker or Beto.

[emmaverybo]

29. Definitely not to Buttigieg or Sanders. Warren might have more success. But not one of them

is going to have the connection with AA reliable voters, older, and leaders that Biden does. He will
never take that for granted.

Biden has enough political savvy and experience to have known what he was in for, how good his chances would be, and he is patient. He won’t crumble. He is keeping his eye on the prize and can weather setback without getting discouraged.

[Drunken Irishman]

40. Biden isn't getting a majority of black support.

So, it's not anywhere near Obama or even Clinton levels from four years ago. What that tells me is that a good amount support Biden right now but it's not universal like with Hillary in 2016. If Biden even loses only 10% of his black support, and he struggles with whites, he'll probably still win South Carolina but it will be by a far narrower margin than most expect right now and I'm not sure a narrow win in South Carolina will make up for potentially three bad losses.

Bill Clinton is the only candidate in modern history to lose his first three primary contests and win the nomination. But that was largely due to his comeback loss in NH. Har Clinton lost NH like some polls are predicting with Biden, he wouldn't have won the nomination. Instead, he came in a strong second place over Tsongas, who many people expected to win the state going away.

Now if Biden does that, then he's back in it. But if he finishes a distant third? I think he's done.

[Scurrilous]

56. I'm off. Enjoy.

Last edited Wed Feb 5, 2020, 03:10 PM - Edit history (7)

This is not a deep dive. Just stuff I picked up real quick. Tons more out there. All basically saying the same. You think Biden is walking away from the base. He just has to muddle through to primary four in S. Carolina where his biggest supporters await. After that, Super Tuesday and the March 10. All in his favor. The base will right things.

Biden 4th last night? Bernie 5th in Missouri & OK, 4th in Minnesota, and 3rd in Mass. & Tenn.

Through March 10 numbers - not going to change because of muddled returns from 170,000 people in Iowa.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287476885#post6

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

☔BlackPeopleAreHuman♿@SparrowOnTheEye
·
11hReplying to @Bakari_Sellers

Why ppl think IA or New Hampshire matters in the 2020? There has been a shift. Non whites have barely voted!!!

HailStateForever@PamChas2

Black people are not going to vote for anyone other than Biden in SC at the same rate. They are not focused on two white states, that exclude them. When Biden gets to my state, we will vote for him as well. Buttigieg and Klobuchar won’t gain his support, nor will they last.

BidenFront(Text Join to 30330)@Biden_Front
·
LOL
Yeah that 53 % african american support will just wake up tomorrow and say, damn that almost all white state thinks something else than we do, we better do what they say-said no African American EVER

Henry"No Malarkey"Djoutsa@D_jeneration
Breaking News@JoeBiden

is still my favorite
Still the favorite.
Still the most qualified.
Still backed by the democratic winning coalition.(POC) African Americans
Still the best to take on trump,beat him and restore the soul of the nation.

Pé Resists@4everNeverTrump

The Democratic candidates spent about $63 million in Iowa leading up to the caucuses.

170,000 people caucused.

That's $370 per caucus-goer.


170,000 people? I live in Miami-Dade County. Population -2,744,878 These 170,000 decide nothing for me.


Poll: Biden continues to dominate among black voters - (December)

'Joe Biden continues to hold a wide lead in the Democratic primary among African Americans, according to a new poll that also shows black voters believe the former vice president would do the best job on most of the issues important to them.

In the crowded Democratic field, Biden has 44 percent support — 29 percentage points higher than Sen, Bernie Sanders, who comes in second among African American likely primary voters, according to the survey for the BlackPAC political action committee."

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/13/poll-biden-continues-to-dominate-among-black-voters-084285

Bernie will not pick up black voters. He is a patronizing clown who thinks black voters are stupid and will vote for him because of photo. Photo? Yeah, photo. The most widely seen photo of a misdemeanor arrest ever!

Link to tweet

#berniesoblack

replying to @EaleyGregory
I can’t wait to celebrate him during black history month starting tomorrow. #berniesoblack

Replying to
@imma_mood
Well at least we know it wasn’t racially motivated. This is Bernie chained to a black female activist protesting against segregation.#GoogleBernie #BernieSanders2020 #BernieSoBlack


eattheboomers@walkinintheyard
·Sep 8, 2019
I would love for someone to ask him why he chose to move to the whitest state in the country. I've spent lots of time in Vermont its nice pretty but its about as diverse as the crowd at a Dave Matthews band concert or a Sanders rally in South Carolina


Tynisa the Cynical Gen X Witch Walker@Kalarigamerchic
· Jul 26, 2019
Since #Berniessoblack was our response to his civil rights stunts. Im now starting #BerniesEveryWoman


Bernie is not liked and won't pick up any votes here. Biden is. Almost as much as the rest combined. They won't be swayed by TV news spin. No narrative is going to make them change their mind. So don't go there. Its a dumb place.

Poll: Biden leads handily in African American support (Jan)
'
"Former vice president Joe Biden is maintaining high levels of support among African American voters less than one month before the first contest of the 2020 election season.

According to a Washington Post-Ipsos national poll released Saturday, 48 percent of Democratic-leaning black voters back Biden as their choice for president, citing his time as former President Barack Obama’s vice president among reasons for their support."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/11/joe-biden-african-american-voters-poll-097524

The polled South.

Alabama - Biden +21%

Florida - Biden 18.7%

Georgia - Biden +16.6%

Mississippi - Biden +26%

Missouri - Biden +25%

N. Carolina - Biden +11.7%

S. Carolina - Biden +17.4%

Tennessee - Biden +15%

Texas - Biden +17.4%

Virginia - Biden +12%

Look at those numbers. Bernie doesn't have margins like that. They're not changing because Iowa. No one in the South cares what they do up there. But that is devastating for Bernie. That will kill him when Biden picks up those states, When do they kick in? Starting with the 4th primary. Oh, shit. What to do? Lets get Biden out before the 4th by goosing the first three. NH is Bernies. Next door. White. 1.1% black. Rural. He beat Hillary by about 21 there in 2016. OK what about the other two. We'll keep them caucused. Bernie does well in caucuses. MUST CAUCUS. He did:

'According to a person with direct knowledge with the process which led to the rule changes, Iowa's "Frankenstein caucus" was the result of accommodations for Sanders supporters who wanted to maintain Iowa's and Nevada's first-in-the-nation caucuses, rather than end the practice of holding caucuses altogether, because caucuses were thought to favor Sanders. The use of the app was necessitated by rules put in place to make the caucuses more like primaries by releasing more data, including first-round preference totals.'

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bernie-sanders-iowa-caucus-winner-trump-democrats-a9317761.html

First primary- (Iowa) Rural 3.4% Black. Accommodated for Bernie w/ caucus.

Second primary - (NH) Rural 1.1% Black. Next door neighbor won by 21% in 2016 in the bag.

Third primary - (Nevada) 8.76% Black. Not bad. Biden currently ahead. But Accommodated for Bernie w/ caucus

I don't know about you, but it looks like Bernie is trying to make things more favorable for himself, He's been at it for a while too. He has advantages in all three. He wants this shit over before S. Carolina. Biden must drop out nonsense is exactly what he wants. He does not want Biden in the race after primary/caucus # 3. Fuck dropping out.

1972 - George McGovern didn't win until the 4th primary but still got nomination. Muskie was winner of 1 and 3 and lost.

1884 - Mondale won 1 and 5, Gary Hart 2,3, and 4. Mondale gets nomination.

1988 - Dukakis 1 and 3. Gephardt - 2 and 3. Dukakis wins.

1992 - Clinton no wins until 6. Gets nomination.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Drunken Irishman]

60. Biden doesn't have a majority of black support.

Everything you posted reinforces this point. It's not a universal voting block.

In the 2016 SC primary, Hillary Clinton won 86% of the black support. Biden isn't going to come close to that number. The fact that a majority of blacks are undecided, or support another candidate, means that Biden can potentially lose enough support where he fails to get the dominant wins in the states he would to stay viable.

You can laugh all you want but if Biden gets blown out in NH, and loses in Nevada, I am not convinced he'll win SC by a large enough margin for anyone to care. All it takes is for his black support to shift even marginally, and so will his lead.

He's at 41% of black support in SC. If that drops to 31%, his 21% lead now possibly dips into single digits, especially if he loses more support among white voters.

Look, you guys can continue to bury your head in the sand but I pray Biden's campaign is not doing the same thing or he's done.

[LanternWaste]

70. Odd that as you argue numbers, you're the only one failing to provide any to support your premise

Burying your head in the sand, indeed.

[krissey]

93. Good post.

I especially agree in the middle of the post and Sanders sending out that picture. So pisses me off. Along with him calling himself a feminist.

[Scurrilous]

95. Yes. That too.

I like this part. Bernie used this:

Unity Reform Commission

https://democrats.org/unity-reform-commission/

To do this:

According to a person with direct knowledge with the process which led to the rule changes, Iowa's "Frankenstein caucus" was the result of accommodations for Sanders supporters who wanted to maintain Iowa's and Nevada's first-in-the-nation caucuses, rather than end the practice of holding caucuses altogether, because caucuses were thought to favor Sanders. The use of the app was necessitated by rules put in place to make the caucuses more like primaries by releasing more data, including first-round preference totals.'

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bernie-sanders-iowa-caucus-winner-trump-democrats-a9317761.html

He used the Unity Reform Meetings to lobby for keeping the caucus format and skew Iowa and Nevada in his favor.

Bernie is such a [redacted].

[krissey]

96. I didn't know why Sanders was a part of that. But, thanks for the explanation.

So, keep a system in that is unfair to so many voters that cannot participate for his own self interest. Says a hell of a lot and so predictable. Wow.

[emmaverybo]

22. No, he isn't. But the problem for the others is that they will be in an uphill battle to gain it.

Even if his AA support softens, Buttigieg and Sanders, in particular, will be hard pressed to break through because there’s hard feelings for them and not a great deal of warmth. They have both been very late to wake up and have alienated many folks.

Maybe Warren can pick up in her support. She has been working at it.

I think your picture overall is much bleaker for Biden than the reality. But time will tell.

Today, Biden still leads the nationals. And his forecast for states from S.C. on at 538 just super. Biden has made his mistakes, but he’s had strong relationships with AA communities and leaders across the nation for decades.

He didn’t just notice AA voters during his run. His eight year partnership with America’s first black president, professional and personal, his unwavering loyalty, has translated into a trust that goes beyond mere pragmatism. Iowa and NH’s significance in this day and age is on the wane. This is a marathon anyway and not a dash. Biden is not going anywhere and neither is his wide appeal.

[Thekaspervote]

30. Great breakdown! The AA community is very tight knit, they tend to vote as a block

It’s always been that way.

With voices like Clyburn, Lewis, Waters, AA mayors, state senators and congress people endorsing Biden or coming to his defense, it won’t be a nut the others will be able to crack. Warren maybe a little, but the other candidates a big resounding no.. as the polls consistently have shown

[DarthDem]

53. Stacey Abrams Too

To add to your list of African-American Biden supporters.

What I think may be getting missed here is that this isn't a de facto two-person race like many others to which it's being incorrectly analogized. Also, this is a fairly unusual gulf in AA voters' support. Typically it's not this large.

Yes, mediots will spew about Biden because they need to set that narrative that they love so much, and of course they want a race, whispers of a brokered convention and such for ratings . But I think this situation defies that narrative-setting effort. Remember, punditry was ready to bury Biden's campaign after just about every debate, even going so far as relentlessly promoting entrants like Booker. Biden weathered that media storm. I suspect he'll weather this one as well.

[Pachamama]

50. Interesting take...but what about Bloomberg?

I agree on much of what you said, however you left out Bloomberg and I think that is a mistake.

What are your thoughts on Bloomberg?

[still_one]

51. Bloomberg will only be a factor in my view if we get to the convention with no candidate having

the required delegates to win, and even then his only power I believe will be which candidate he endorses

[Blue_true]

82. I disagree.

Bernie's one hope is to have either Buttigieg or Biden hang in the race if they are losing. If they drop out, he faces Bloomberg on a primary state terrain that is highly favorable to Bloomberg.

[still_one]

84. The only way Biden will drop out is if Super Tuesday is dismal. I think the same applies to

Buttigieg.

In other words, Super Tuesday will be critical. Biden or Buttigieg will stay in through Super Tuesday.

I find it interesting that Bloomberg choose not to engage in Iowa or NH, which demonstrates he does not hold much weighting on those states. I think his assessment is right in that regard.

Bloomberg could be a wild card, but that will also depend what happens in Super Tuesday

[Blue_true]

87. IA and NH account for around 7-8% of convention delegates. Florida along accounts for like 13-14%.

Bloomberg has the luxury of focusing his efforts where they have the biggest impact.

[Mike Nelson]

52. Pretty much agree, and also...

... I think there is a debate and it will get more attention, now. There could be an impression left... it could mean a lot... Biden needs to be good, steady, and be the no-drama non-Trump. He seems to lose his focus sometimes, and it's not "stuttering". Bernie had his best perf after the heart attack. He seemed more calm and healthy. Calmly deliver the Progressive messages. It's not a football stadium! Warren is consistent - move it up a notch with something inspirational. Remind viewers she's female - go for the Hillary voters. Pete needs to retain the "winner" and "front runner" aura he got in Iowa and stick with the Obama-like unity messages. Pete should continue to speak to Black voters and relate problems/solutions to their lives.

[still_one]

54. Sanders will probably win N.H. with Biden second, followed by Mayor Pete third

If that happens, it is still anyone’s game until Super Tuesday

I think Biden will take Nevada, but it will be close

[Drunken Irishman]

64. I agree. But if Biden slips to third in NH, it's hard for me to see him winning the nomination.

[still_one]

71. Regardless, Biden is in this through Super Tuesday, and I think it is a mistake for people to write

Biden off because of these early states, ignoring Super Tuesday

No matter what some think of Bloomberg, he doesn't hold much weight for these early primaries, and we will see if that assessment has merit based on Super Tuesday

I think the "must win" for Biden is Nevada.

[Drunken Irishman]

77. Writing Biden off now is a mistake...

If Biden comes in with 11% support in New Hampshire, behind Mayor Pete, and well behind Bernie, then it's time to start accepting that maybe he's in a very difficult position.

I agree that Nevada is extremely important for Biden but he's never been 100% solid there and Bernie has a strong caucus game. If Biden's coming off two very underwhelming showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, I don't see him doing particularly well in Nevada.

This is why it's silly to write off Iowa and New Hampshire. It's fine if you don't believe they should represent the party's first two states, or that, in your mind, the race isn't over after only two contests. I agree that, on its face, that seems insane. BUT history has shown us these races create the perception. Obama won in 2008 because he won in Iowa. It proved to many doubters he had the ground game, support and energy to win - and because of it, there was a major shift in support toward his campaign. Hillary was able to take the 2008 campaign to the distance because she managed to pull out a shocking win in New Hampshire. If Obama had lost Iowa, even with it being 92% white, and many saying he just needed to get to the more diverse-rich states, he's likely not the nominee in 2008. Had Hillary lost New Hampshire, after losing Iowa the way she did, she likely is out after Super Tuesday and isn't anywhere near as successful as she turned out to be.

In 1992, no Democrat contested Iowa because Tom Harkin was running for president and it was his home state. New Hampshire was the first real contest and, after the all the affair talk, and being written off, and no one thinking Clinton had a chance, he came back and finished a strong second to Tsongas in NH. That completely changed the narrative about his campaign. Instantly, essentially overnight, he was dubbed the comeback kid.

Clinton doesn't win the nomination if he finished a distant third or fourth in NH, prospects facing Biden right now.

Biden needs a strong finish in NH. He doesn't need to win the state but if he can be within six or even seven points of Sanders, I think the narrative can shift and he'll have much more success heading into Nevada.

But if this Emerson poll is how results shake out, and Biden loses 32-17-13 to Sanders and Mayor Pete, I don't see how he bounces back beyond a Bernie implosion.

[Peacetrain]

65. We read the polls and tea leaves and thought Biden would be 2nd or 3rd

So I am not too stressed out .. I have never seen him winning NH.. so yep it is South Carolina and Super Tuesday. People are just all over the place. All the other candidates get a lot of love. Bernie has his dedicated people.. there is no doubt about that and I do not discount them.... Very interesting campaign this year.. and people besides Joe are about to be vetted in a big way.. Joe is tough.. and can keep going I am not so sure about some of the others. I think Bernie will have a very hard time. Elizabeth and Amy can stand up to it. And Pete is going to get blasted also, but I think he can handle it. Andrew and Tom are not going to have to worry about that.. not their time. and Bloomberg, well he has the money I guess to blast back like none of the others can right now, because of that money. But NH if Joe comes in 2nd in NH, there will be gnashing of teeth and ripping of garments..

[Drunken Irishman]

66. No one thought Biden would be a distant third - let alone a distant fourth.

It was a bad showing. Had he finished third with things bunched up at the top, as it was initially thought, he'd be far better positioned.

Something like:

Mayor Pete: 26
Bernie: 24
Biden: 21

But barely getting to 15%, and maybe worse? That was a bad showing. He will need to do better in NH or he's in trouble.

Does he need to win it? Absolutely not - does he need to not finish third or worse? Absolutely.

[Peacetrain]

69. You are not getting an argument from me on that one..

I could tell you that he was starting to hit his stride the last couple of weeks, and getting good turnouts.. and that is true, so it really had me feeling better.. what can you do.. you go with what the polls tell you and hope that they are right.

The one thing I can tell you for certain is Joe is still standing after taking so much incoming not only from his fellow candidates but from a cabal of right wingers and Russian trolls dedicated to taking him down,.. even to the point of attacking his last living son and threatening to destroy the whole family.. they are still standing..

I am not so sure of some of the others who are leading can take that heat.

I am not stepping back from my support for him.. he is the one that can lead the way.

Trump is so much stronger than most in here want to accept.

[Beringia]

73. I don't understand how Buttigieg did so well. It seems it came out of nowhere.

[Drunken Irishman]

78. Not really. Pete has always done well in Iowa...

He slagged after the Warren spat but there were polls from last year that showed him leading the state.

[Beringia]

89. Thanks

[redstatebluegirl]

76. This MUST be the last time we lead off with Iowa and New Hampshire.

We should have at least 4 states, diverse states as the first primary.

[Blue_true]

79. All those words and you dedicated maybe ten to the biggest wildcard in the race.

If Biden falls flat in New Hampshire, Mike Bloomberg looms massive on Super Tuesday. He may even pick up significant writein votes in South Carolina. Bloomberg is going to score well on Super Tuesday, all the states except California on Super Tuesday set up well for him, he can use Texas to offset any advantage Bernie has in California, then come a big run of states that are absolutely hostile to Bernie, Florida a couple weeks after Super Tuesday, Georgia, later New York with Bloomberg playing with a home field advantage, Pennsylvania and Conneticutt, where Bloomberg should dominate Bernie. Honestly, I see zero possibility that Bernie can get such a lead that Bloomberg can't wipe it out in states that wil be highly favorable to him and gain a big advantage heading into New York and eastcoast states that are highly favorable to Bloomberg.

[Drunken Irishman]

80. I dedicated the least amount to the thing I least know about...

Because no one knows how Bloomberg can force this race to shake out since there's a dearth of polling with Bloomberg's name attached.

We know that Bloomberg isn't going to be campaigning in New Hampshire, so, this is a state he won't win.

We know Bloomberg is barely on the radar in Nevada right now, with only one poll showing him registering (at 2%).

We know Bloomberg is also barely registering in South Carolina, with only one poll showing him at 2%.

In California, Bloomberg's best showing is in the NPR poll where he's at 4%, behind even Andrew Yang.

Bloomberg does his best in Texas, where he's polling at 9% in one poll.

But that's all we know. Bloomberg can't just do well in these states - Bloomberg has to win a few of 'em and right now, he isn't. So, that's why I am not going to devote more than a passing glance at his position because, frankly, there's just not enough evidence to suggest what kind of wildcard he would be.

My guess is that he becomes a wildcard in a brokered convention but if it gets to that point, the Democrats are boned.

[Blue_true]

85. If Biden stumbles, Bloomberg's numbers skyrocket.

I don't see many Biden supporters going to a candidate like Bernie unless it is a General race, they will grab for the moderate with the best shot, that in my view in Bloomberg.

Iowa and New Hampshire account for less than 8% of delegates, that is likely why Bloomberg ignored them in favor of states like Florida and Georgia, which combined account for 15-20% of delegates.

Bloomberg is running a smart race by ignoring the other candidates in his field and pounding Trump, that is getting him a lot of looks for left-center to center democrats.

[Drunken Irishman]

88. It depends on the scenario...

If Mayor Pete surges to a close second in NH, and does well enough in Nevada, I absolutely could see Biden's supporters moving over to him.

[krissey]

94. I can easily see that if Buttigieg did well in those states. Also though,

if Warren did well for whatever reason. There is no reason to see that at this point. Something would have to shake out for her to get a better showing. These people have been coming and going in the polls, so I do see there is a chance. But if so, I can see Biden people going Warren. I do not put her in the same block as Sanders and I can see the base going for her.

I think Harris got out too early.

[Kentonio]

90. Fascinating race so far.

There’s so many elements that could swing the final result, as you say. My main ones are..

Can Biden hold on until SC and will his base there hold if he’s coming off a run of bad results? Personally I think he’ll still win it comfortably with his extremely strong relationship with the AA community, but if Pete is persuading donors/voters elsewhere to switch based on the earlier results then it could create a drain on Joe’s chances on Super Tuesday. Absolutely the worst possible scenario for them both would be going into that day with the moderate base splitting equally between them.

Can Buttigieg win over POC? I think that question defines the rest of his race. If Biden falls badly before SC, will AA voters switch to Pete because he’s the new moderate frontrunners or move to a candidate they prefer? Equally if Biden doesn’t collapse, can Pete avoid an absolute humiliation there?

How long will Liz Warren stay in the race? Although her support is a long, long way away from being an automatic switch to Sanders, he would still probably expect the biggest boost, which could be critical in those Super Tuesday states.

Can Bernie turn out AA voters? If it’s like 2016 again then he will probably fail again. Polling seems to show a marked improvement, but it’s the one area he has to get right and do well. He won’t win SC, but if he’s competitive then I think it’s his race.

Then again tomorrow something could happen that shakes everything up and changes all the variables. We live in interesting times!