Rosy polls but few yard signs: How Joe Biden stumbled in Iowa

[denem]

Rosy polls but few yard signs: How Joe Biden stumbled in Iowa

DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - In the end, Joe Biden, who bills himself as the most electable candidate in the 2020 U.S. Democratic presidential field, could not convince nearly enough Iowans that he is the best person to take on President Donald Trump in November.

The former vice president came into Iowa’s first-in-the-nation nominating contest looking formidable, armed with high-profile endorsements and strong opinion poll numbers. His major rivals, U.S. Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, had been stranded in Washington for weeks for Trump’s impeachment trial.

But during all that time in Iowa, it was not easy to find Biden yard signs even in the final crucial weeks in the run-up to the caucuses, while signs for Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, who leads the field in Iowa with 71% of precincts reporting, were plentiful.

That disconnect between rosy poll numbers and the lack of enthusiasm on the ground is emblematic of the single biggest question that has dogged Biden’s campaign from the start: Can a 77-year-old white male moderate who spent more than 40 years in Washington excite Democrats increasingly eager for bold change? ...

Biden’s camp insists it will prevail in the long run, saying the result in Iowa - 90% white - would not suggest that Biden’s core supporters - particularly African-American voters - are poised to abandon him.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-biden/rosy-polls-but-few-yard-signs-how-joe-biden-stumbled-in-iowa-idUSKBN1ZZ0JS

[Tiggeroshii]

1. I promise you it wasnt the yard signs

....

[denem]

2. No it wasn't.

Biden looks old, sounds old, talks about the past and making deals with the GOP.

[zackymilly]

22. Biden's "vote for somebody else", poking, and walking away from questions turns me off to him. n/t

[BlueWI]

36. It wasn't just the yard signs

but the Clinton campaign also under invested in them and it was a clear mistake to do so.

The lesson is not to overthinking things on yard signs. It's a good investment to provide them for enthusiastic supporters who are proud to advertise their preference.

[democratisphere]

3. Iowa is irrelevant to the bigger picture yet to come.

No one should be patting themselves on the back for an uninspired low so-called caucus voter turnout.

[Thekaspervote]

4. This!!

[denem]

5. keep sayin it and saying it as much as you like

Mr Electable was not electable in Iowa. Them's the facts.

[democratisphere]

6. The Iowa Caucus was a flop, then a total fail.

A straight forward vote would have been more successful with a greater number of participants across a wider demographic.

[treestar]

20. It's one state

It's one state. Keep telling yourself over and over it's so much more important than the other 49 put together.

[bluewater]

25. It's one state and more important than mere polling results.

Will there be excuses if Joe loses to Pete in New Hampshire?

[treestar]

28. there will still be 49 states and 7 territories left

I don't know why those states won't count. Is there going to be any egg on anyone's face for calling the winner after 2 states?

[bluewater]

29. So Joe will win NH? Or at least beat Pete in NH?

That's the next state up.

[treestar]

30. so the first two still leave 48 to go

and some of them are a lot larger and have more delegates. So we will see. The process just started.

[bluewater]

31. So Joe will win Nevada? Will he at least beat Pete in Nevada?

That's the third state up.

If Joe does poorly in all 3 of those states, as he did already in Iowa, even his firewall in South Carolina could be in play.

Thinking that a candidate can under perform in three primaries and not be impacted by that just does not sound reasonable.

But, as you say, time will tell.

Good luck to you and your preferred candidate. I hope my own candidate does better than she did in Iowa too.

[treestar]

34. There would still be 46 to go

I'd wait until 25 had been done before claiming victory.

[bluewater]

35. Fair enough.

But these things tend to snow ball, so your candidate and my candidate better start winning more delegates to stay in the race.

Good luck to you and your candidate going forward.

[still_one]

10. Should I assume Those pushing this narrative agree with the discriminatory Iowa Caucus

which discriminates against those with mobility issues, and those who cannot spend hours in a caucus hall?

Should I assume those pushing this narrative agree with the badgering of caucus goers to change each other vote on the second vote?

Should I assume those that seem to want to use Iowa as a bellwether don’t really care about the concept of a secret ballot, and that eliminating certain demographics from participating in the caucus is a good thing?

[democratisphere]

12. Be certain.

[still_one]

14. I'll be glad when sUper Tuesday is over

[democratisphere]

15. I will be glad when the primaries are over and done with.

Hope like hell the Democrats come up with the right candidate!

[still_one]

16. +++

[BlueWI]

37. Nothing wrong with congratulations to a campaign

for a win that they earned.

I can do that and I am not even a Mayor Pete supporter. But I know a few folks in Iowa who appreciated his message.

Good on them. And go, Liz!!

[smoke107]

7. I don't think they wanted to spend the time, money and energy

in a caucus state ......

[wyldwolf]

8. Ask former presidents Paul and Sanders...

... how important yard signs are.

[denem]

17. Or Barak Obama about '08

[wyldwolf]

18. Causation doesn't equal correlation

If we're to compare candidates who had the most yards signs vs how often they've won, the results are decidedly against those who had the most yard signs.

Jonathan Krasno, political science professor at Binghamton University in New York who. along with other researchers, studied the effectiveness of campaign signs in a study published in 2016.

"Our initial hunch was we’d see higher (voter) turnout where there was lots of signs,” he said. “What we found is that we were wrong."

Strictly on the Democratic side:

Bill Bradley won the yard sign / bumper sticker primary in '00. (Lost primary)

Howard Dean won the yard sign / bumper sticker primary in '04. (Lost primary)

Barack Obama won the yard sign / bumper sticker primary in '08. (Won primary)

Bernie Sanders won the yard sign / bumper sticker primary in '16. (Lost primary)

Republican side:

Ron Paul won the yard sign / bumper sticker primary in '08 and '12.

Yard signs reveal the passion of the supporters, but don't often translate into wins.

[denem]

19. Were / are Sanders and Paul cult candidates? Yes.

Does Biden's poor showing in Iowa show people want an alternative to a rear view mirror Yes.

If Biden has not demonstrated 'electability' by Super Tuesday, will there be a rush for the doors? Absolutely.

My heart's with Warren, my money's on Mike.

[wyldwolf]

21. Yes. Was Bradley? Was Dean? Was Obama? Not so much

Does Biden's poor showing in Iowa show people want an alternative to a rear view mirror? No, it actually doesn't.

George McGovern placed third in '72. Won the nomination.
Jimmy Carter placed behind 'undecided' in '76. Won the nomination.
Michael Dukakis placed third in '88. Won the nomination.
Bill Clinton placed FOURTH, with only 2% in '92. Won the nomination.

Iowa is certainly no bellwether for the nomination. And since 2012, when the long knives came out for it based on it's disproportionate race and age makeup and participation, it's even less so.

As Al Sharpton said yesterday, "black voters in the south don't care what happens in Iowa."

All the yard signs in the world doesn't equate to votes.

[denem]

23. 1992 was effectively uncontested.

Rear View Mirror? The last Democratic president who failed to win the nomination first go was James Buchanan.

Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Gore, HRC all struck out.

[wyldwolf]

24. "1992 was effectively uncontested."

The last Democratic president who failed to win the nomination first go was James Buchanan.

And this has WHAT to do with yard signs?

[katmondoo]

27. I love Warren but I also like Mike

[denem]

33. Ditto.

Me too.

[bluewater]

32. Um... "Causation doesn't equal correlation" isn't that bass-ackward?

Sure, Correlation doesn't equal Causation, but Correlation does not preclude Causation either.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

26. This

Lol

[IluvPitties]

9. Great.

Now, let's see what happens down the road!

[WhiskeyGrinder]

11. The answer will come in primary states. Caucuses measure enthusiasm, and primaries measure turnout.

[brutus smith]

13. People don't want go along get along Joe.

It's time we focus on the congress and Senate. There is no compromising with these cult member repubs. When we keep the house and take back the Senate along with a Progressive Dem President, we need to go full bore ahead with Democratic principles and don't wait for repubs to come aboard. It ain't happening.

[Voltaire2]

38. Status quo repairman is not a winning theme.

As Warren said: go big or go home.