Percentage of Iowa young voters increased by 33% according to entrance polls

[Tom Rinaldo]

Last edited Wed Feb 5, 2020, 10:18 AM - Edit history (1)

On election night I followed closely on MSNBC as Steve Kornacki gave periodic reports on the Iowa entrance polls. As he explained, those returns were coming in in waves. The first wave showed that those under 30 made up 18% of the Iowa caucus goers, I believe a 1% increase over 2016 caucus goers. Meanwhile participation from those over 65 was high, significantly higher than in 2016. But those numbers changed. By the time Kornacki was reporting the fourth wave of entrance poll returns those below the age of 30 made up 24% of those attending the Iowa caucuses. Meanwhile the percentage of those over 65 attending had dipped to slightly below those attending in 2016. While overall those over 65 remained a larger group than those below 30 (I believe making up 29% of those attending compared to 24% for those below 30) the trend line was unmistakable. Older attendance was flat or falling, youth attendance was rising.

I have looked online for detailed breakdowns of the entrance polling data but have come up empty. What I can find are some news analysis stories reporting specifically on one or another data point only. One report seemed to pull only from the first wave or entrance poll results, which is misleading in light of the further updates that came in later. If anyone can find the final raw data I would love to see it.

Live on cable, with nothing else to talk about since no returns were coming in, Steve Kornacki commented a lot on the age break downs and the significance of them. But subsequently I have not seen this looked at in depth by the news media. The next morning, on Morning Joe, Kornacki had collapsed the age groups from I believe five subsets into just two; those below 50 and those above 50. Subsets so large mask the differences in participation rates between young and old Iowa voters in 2020 compared to 2016.

But from this data it seems to me that the reason why Iowa caucus attendance was flat in 2020 compared to 2016 was not because younger voters failed to mobilize at an increasing rate. It is because older voters were not moved to participate in larger numbers. This refutes the implication that some in the media are spreading that the new voters that Sanders is counting on for victory are failing to materialize. Instead it implies that the tried and true voters that Democrats like Biden are counting on for victory are not responding with any more enthusiasm than they previously showed in 2016.

[beastie boy]

1. Projecting trends in Iowa to national trends is premature at best.

"This refutes the implication that some in the media are spreading that the new voters that Sanders is counting on for victory are failing to materialize."

No, it makes following the trend worthwhile to consider, but it refutes nothing, at least not at this point. It is also worthwhile to consider who this trend will benefit most when all is said and done.

[denem]

2. And Bernie did worse than 2016.

Not all the new voters were sold on him, and/or some of the older ones turned off.

[Tom Rinaldo]

3. Yes, he did "worse" in a six person race in 2020 than he did in a two person race in 2016

I am counting Pete, Bernie, Liz, Joe, Amy, and Yang as Iowa contenders in 2020 (and that leaves out Steyer and of course Bloomberg). There were only two real contenders in 2016, Bernie and Hillary.

Iowa of all places demonstrates that people "win" by picking up votes from those whose first choice isn't viable but who do not want to fall in line with a front runner. In 2016 Sanders inherited virtually all of the voters who did not want to support Hillary, and that included voters who had hoped Warren would have run herself. Well this time Warrren did run herself. As in every race once the field starts to narrow, candidates "win" with a combination of true believers plus those who find that candidate the most acceptable choice of the limited choices still available to them. The same will be true this year when the race narrows down to two or three choices.

And I realize that by no means all young voters are currently backing Sanders. Yang supporters trend young and Liz and Pete draw from all age groups. Biden however does poorly among young voters. I just thought it worth noting that contrary to the impression many seemingly have been left with, young voters outperformed old voters in attendance at the Iowa caucuses compared to the 2016 contest.

[Demsrule86]

5. I saw young voters for Buttigieg and Warren...and even a few for Biden...so the assumption that

Sanders got all the young voters is not necessarily true.

[Tom Rinaldo]

7. I never make or made the assumption that Sanders got "all" the young voters. n/t

[Demsrule86]

4. There were less new voters overall...16 level turnout so...Sanders is not expanding the electorate.

I think Biden is the nominee...but if he falters, I will vote for Bloomberg who can beat Trump...I don't think Sanders can beat Trump.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. It's not that straight forward

Here is some relevant commentary:

"On Monday night, just more than 1 in 3 were participating in their first-ever caucus. Could that be because they got involved in 2008 or 2016 and just stayed involved? Maybe! But it also could be a sign that the supposed energy coursing through the electorate to remove Trump isn’t all it’s cracked up to be."
https://abc17news.com/news/politics/national-politics/2020/02/04/5-big-takeaways-from-the-iowa-entrance-poll/

If the percentage of young voters participating grew, it clearly points to a drop off in the participation of older voters or else the overall numbers would not have remained flat.

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. So female young supporters of Sanders are invisible to you?

Nice. Not to mention the general slur on all young voters. I think this qualifies as divisive politics.

[ripcord]

9. I have gone back to college at 58

I can tell you that at least on our campus Bernie is hot and I wouldn't be that surprised if this were true at many California universities. With the very successful push to register students and California moving up its primarily this could be a major factor leading to a Sanders nomination.

[Fresh_Start]

11. unfortunately, i take that as a failure of the education system

that the students aren't doing the research to make an informed choice