Biden Slump in Iowa May Signal Bigger Campaign Woes

[left-of-center2012]

Joe Biden has staked his campaign on the argument that he is best positioned to ride anti-Trump sentiment to a victory in the general election. But his poor showing in the Iowa caucus raises questions about that strategy and whether he has the campaign structure to drive momentum into later states.

With about two-thirds of the precincts reporting, Barack Obama’s vice president was sitting in fourth place, behind 38-year-old Pete Buttigieg, self-described democratic socialist Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, another progressive senator.

Moderate Democrats looking for someone to unseat President Donald Trump may be scared off by Biden’s inability to stop Sanders in early states and turn to the fresh-faced Buttigieg, who has painted himself as a centrist alternative from the heartland.

Another moderate Democrat may benefit from Biden’s apparent Iowa stumble. Michael Bloomberg’s campaign announced on Tuesday that it was doubling its advertising budget and increasing its national staff to more than 2,000 to capitalize on the chaos in Des Moines. Bloomberg has been working toward a decent showing in Super Tuesday states that vote on March 3, including California, Michigan and Texas.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/biden-slump-in-iowa-may-signal-bigger-campaign-woes?srnd=premium

[LongtimeAZDem]

1. HE'S DOOMED, I TELLS YA! DOOOOOOOOMED!

Here we go again.

[at140]

2. Biden is not doomed, if he finsihes strong in NH...eom

[LongtimeAZDem]

4. I know; we go through this regularly. I thought the sarcasm was obvious.

[bluewater]

11. The difference this time we have actual Election Results, not just polls.

Joe did very poorly in a real election in Iowa. He's coming in 4th as of the current results released. There is no way to sugarcoat that. That's a more important data point than polling.

His performance in NH will also be much more important than any current polling.

He could very well turn things around, or he can continue to lose actual primaries.

Time will tell.

[denem]

16. 'the polls are what the polls are'

[bluewater]

19. the election results are what the election results are

The poll-addicted masses must move forward into the brave new world of actual elections.

[FreeState]

8. If history holds he must win NH

No Democrat in my life time has won without winning IA and/or NH.

[DarthDem]

10. So You're 28 or Younger

Bill Clinton, 1992. Also very popular with African-Americans, incidentally.

[at140]

14. Bill Clinton in 1992 had more political skills and charm than

Bloomberg has money. Bill was exceptionally talented politician during his presidency years.
May be he still is, just don't see him doing much politics anymore.

[former9thward]

23. Iowa was not seriously contested in 1992.

Iowa voted for their home state senator, Tom Harkin, with 77% of the vote. Uncommitted got 12%. None of the other candidates really campaigned in the state.

[DarthDem]

33. Yes, and . . .

. . . this year the caucus was a fustercluck with five viable candidates and Bloomberg lurking, and three of the five candidates have no history of African-American support. Accordingly, this year's Iowa event is distinguishable from the norm - whatever that may be - too.

And I'm not so sure Biden contested the state as seriously as you imply. Of course he needed to look interested, but his focus is rightly elsewhere. He knows he can weather the goofy media narrative, which has actually already started to blow over.

[FreeState]

31. Bill Clinton didn't win Iowa

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/02/02/iowa-history-losers-trump-clinton/

You know who had a terrible Iowa caucuses night? The 42nd president of the United States, Bill Clinton. As the governor of Arkansas, Clinton had been seen as a viable candidate, but he came in fourth with a measly 2.8 percent, according to the Des Moines Register. Iowa’s native son, Sen. Tom Harkin, won the state’s Democratic caucuses handily, but Clinton wasn’t finished yet.

[DarthDem]

32. I Know

That was my point.

[Garrett78]

34. Iowa was nullified that year by there being an Iowan in the race. What propelled Clinton forward...

...was his very strong showing in New Hampshire and the "comeback kid" narrative that followed. And that's what Biden needs. His campaign clearly realizes that, even if many on DU deny the importance of next week's primary. Outside of the DU bubble, people recognize that a poor showing in New Hampshire could be devastating.

[PatSeg]

5. Oh no!!!

Who will I support now???

[LakeArenal]

3. He never staked his campaign on Iowa

[cwydro]

17. He spent a lot of money there.

[LakeArenal]

21. It was never going to go Biden.

Everyone spent a lot.

[CurtEastPoint]

6. OH FOR FUCK'S SAKE........ give this shit a rest. Your source is BLOOMBERG? D'oh!

[Cha]

29. lol.. I noticed that.. they all smell

blood in water.

[groundloop]

7. An article in Bloomberg nonetheless.... I call bullshit

Iowa is pretty much meaningless. I apologize to our DU members from Iowa, but it has no business being the kick-off event in the Democratic primary season.

[LanternWaste]

9. No one thought Biden would walk away with the blue-ribbon

IA was Bernie's to walk away with. Bernie's the only guy who dropped the ball.

But editorials can prophecize anything they need to get more readers and subscribers-- even if, like this one, it fails to provide objective numbers to support its position.

[bluewater]

13. Lowering expectations AFTER the fact? Seems so.

There were several polls showing Joe in the lead in Iowa.

For example:

New Iowa Poll Shows Tight Race, With Joe Biden Jumping Ahead

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/us/politics/joe-biden-iowa-democratic-poll.html

Suffolk University/USA Today Poll Shows Biden Leading in Iowa

https://www.suffolk.edu/news-features/news/2020/01/27/16/49/suffolk-university-usa-today-poll-shows-biden-leading-in-iowa

[Cha]

30. Exactly.

[R B Garr]

12. Someone on MSNBC just said Iowa and New Hampshire are 3%

of the total to win, so there’s that.

[at140]

15. Typically those who don't do well borh in IA & NH

the money begins to dry out. And Biden is not a Billionaire like Bloomberg.
SO it is important that Biden finish strong on election day (not just polls).

[R B Garr]

20. There are so many candidates, though, so probably

different standards.

[LakeArenal]

22. Then his supporters will send more

Thanks for reminding me.

[at140]

24. Good, but supporters can't match 1/10th of what Bloomberg can spend

from his pocket money.

Bloomberg can spend $5,000,000,000 = $50 from 100 million contributors.
We have about total 65 million democratic voters. And they are split among half a dozen candidates.
You do the math.

[LakeArenal]

26. Yeah well that goes against everything I believe.

Money shouldn’t mean power.

[at140]

27. Until all campaigns are funded by taxpayers via IRS,

rich Billionaires have a huge advantage, and corruption in DC will continue.
But I don't hear much talk about that by the candidates.
Why do you think the area surrounding DC is the richest in the country?

[BlueIdaho]

18. Bloomberg? No bias there I'm sure...

So let’s look at where the race stands after Super Tuesday. That will be a far better indicator than one fucked up caucus...

[at140]

25. That is quite correct...

Super Tuesday will reveal the ultimate nominee.

[Garrett78]

35. Maybe, maybe not.

It's possible that the race will still be up in the air after Super Tuesday. In 2016, it was over after Super Tuesday. That may not be the case this time around.

Anyway, what happens in NH, NV and SC will have a lot to say about what happens on Super Tuesday.

[Vogon_Glory]

28. Journo Blah-Blah

I suppose they have to say something to fill up bandwidth and empty air time.

Joe Biden may have done poorly in Iowa, but the Hawkeye State is hardly representative of the Democratic electorate as a whole (For that matter, neither is New Hampshire). It looks like it’ll be a while yet before we discover which candidates are our voters’ favorite.

[at140]

36. Then how come president Obama did so well in Iowa during primary?

I think Iowa is all about ground game and organization. Mayor Pete outdid all others in Iowa in that regard.