Sanders supporters: can you give me a solid argument as to how Bernie wins the GE?

[brooklynite]

Bottom line: we have to win the Clinton States (including more Purple MN, NH and CO) and win back PA, MI and WI. The arguments I've heard, which I don't find plausible, are:

-- Clinton was a Centrist, Clinton lost, therefore any Centrist will lose

-- We need to attract Independents, Sanders is an Independent, therefore Sanders will win.

Both are overly simplistic and don't reflect what people think of the candidates personally, and what Independents actually want in a candidate.

The other answer I hear is: "Sanders beats Trump in head-to-head polling". I discount this because we're not actually in a head to head race and, as others have pointed out Sanders hasn't been subject to the oppo attack that will definitely come ("self-described socialist"; "pro-Soviet Union/Cuba", "wants to take away your health care", " "higher taxes", etc.)

Last, there's "Sanders will attract new young voters waiting for a 'real progressive'". It didn't happen in the 2016 Primary, it didn't happen in the 2018 mid-term, and, with Sanders polling at half his previous support, I'm not seeing it happen now.

So what's a solid answer to explain how Sanders can rebuild the Democratic coalition and attract the centrist Independents and moderate Republicans we need to win?

[Thekaspervote]

1. I would like to see that as well... in the numbers only..no opinion/speculation

[mikeysnot]

2. maybe you could start with why you think

mayor Pete can do that. He is the mayor of a small IN city...

We would prefer you promote your candidate instead of tossing stones on others.

[brooklynite]

6. All right, try this...

He advocates center-left policies that will improve healthcare, the economy and the environment without scaring off voters we need to get elected to implement them.

He has military service in Afghanistan which provides perspective on military and foreign policy issues the President will face.

He comes from Indiana, so he has an understanding of the working class rust-belt voter.

He has a compelling speaking style which presents the generational contrast to Trump.

He's shown an ability to raise both small dollar and large dollar donations, so he'll have the resources needed for the GE.

His campaign has shown both a polished ground operation and rapid response skill.

His performance in Iowa shows an ability to draw votes from both rural and urban districts and from young and old voters.

We would prefer you promote your candidate instead of tossing stones on others.

I didn't know you were speaking for everyone else, but I'll keep raising critical points that I think should be discussed.

[Piratedog]

59. Iowa is no way representative of the US and particularly the battleground states

I like Pete and what you listed is true. But it is not going to matter to The middle 20%.

[I_M_Blue_2]

35. This is only a request for reasons, not an attack

[UniteFightBack]

48. It's a valid question...I see you chose not to answer it. This ain't no stone, shit it's barely a

sand grain.

[Mike 03]

3. Arizonan Democrats would like the answer to this question too

And Senate candidate Captain Mark Kelly is all ears, because if we don't regain the Senate, what's the point?

[texasfiddler]

4. I want to see Sanders beating Trump in:

Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina. I don’t give a fuck about national polls

[Jirel]

19. National polls are pointless.

I agree mostly with you. I don't see Sanders winning Florida or Arizona. But I don't see Biden or Buttigieg or Klobuchar doing it either.

[honest.abe]

5. It's wishful thinking on their part.

They think once Bernie gets out there in general election mode people will just fall in love with him like they did.

[nolabear]

7. But it's a good and honest question. Let's not distract from it.

I’d like to know. I cannot imagine the vast center of America, the families, middle-to-older people who remember the long political arc of the last 20+ years, blue collar workers with that patriotic pride in a country they know, people who know Obama trusted Joe with the presidency, all those people voting for Bernie. He can be portrayed as suspicious, other, not the America we know, as dangerous to centrists as 45 is.

I really want to know how he appeals to them because young and democratic socialist people are not going to win the day if even half the rest stay home. And I haven’t seen him try.

[ibegurpard]

8. Here's how

people who don't like him are going to have to swallow that and find something about him they can get behind and then talk it up to everyone they can so that we can keep our system of self-governance. Which is what is at stake here. And supporters of anyone are going to have to be willing to do the same for whoever ends up being the nominee.

[NurseJackie]

9. He's an "Independent in name only... for record-keeping only.

He's an "Independent in name only... for record-keeping only. A mere formality that means nothing other than being able to fill-in a checkbox. And you know, there's a myth that Sanders "votes with the Democrats 99% of the time" ... that's totally false. It's closer to 80% (if you round-up).

Anyway, all I'm saying is that everyone knows that he's a Socialist. He says so himself. Why pretend otherwise? I think reasonable adults can just go ahead and speak plainly about what his political beliefs are and what his philosophy is. He's clearly no Democrat.

[Cha]

38. TY!

[Quixote1818]

10. I don't know for sure but these are some of the arguments I have heard

1. All his stances are popular when taken individually
2. Currently he polls just as strong against Trump as the other Dems and better than many of them
3. You would be surprised how many folks who don't usually vote will come out if they think their student debt will be relieved saving them thousands. That goes for free college too and those who are desperate for inexpensive healthcare.
4. Republicans have been screaming wolf about Obama being a socialist for years so the term simply doesn't have much weight anymore.
5. He brings in those who don't trust the Gov. like Joe Rogan.
6. Moderate Dems and Republicans who hate Trump will still vote for Sanders because they will know most of what he is saying will get watered down by congress and the Senate.
7. Often the people don't really know what they want until it is presented to them. You might be surprised at how energized folks might be for some of these things once they really listen and start considering them.
8. He has tried to show respect to Trump voters by saying they are not all racist and many are just looking for a better life. So he hasn't completely alienated them and he might be able to pull those who voted for Obama and then Trump back to the Dems.
9. His message about income inequality resonates with a huge amount of folks and is easy for people to understand.

[Jirel]

20. Well, I was going to make a bunch of those points...

... but you just did it for me.

10. Despite his Socialist label, his policies and statements are actually popular among quite a few MAGAts, particularly those who are poor and struggling. Never discount the right-wing Bernie Bro vote. I personally know a number of really horrible Dump supporters who adore Bernie, and would've picked him over Trump. The message and style of disruption do appeal to a fairly large group of the cultists.

[Quixote1818]

30. Yep. nt

[msongs]

11. he crashed and burned in Iowa, his favorite demographic. and yes he may win slightly

there but the kid from nowhere proved that goliath can be laid down

[Cuthbert Allgood]

13. That's a unique spin on him being almost statistically tied for the lead.

Biden crashed and burned. We know that.

[Jirel]

21. This.

There are 3 frontrunners at this point. The top 2 are pretty much tied.

[Quixote1818]

14. Did you miss the NYT article showing that much of his rise in the polls is because of minorities?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/us/politics/latest-democratic-polls.html

[melman]

16. "his favorite demographic"

Link to tweet

&feature=emb_title

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Quixote1818]

40. Wow. nt

[DanTex]

12. Sure. Some basic arguments:

1) In a heavily divided country, where even most independents are actually leaners, the swing vote is small, and turnout is key. Giving Dems bold policies to vote for will drive base turnout.

2) Independents look a lot more like Joe Rogan than they do Washington Post columnists. Polling shows that the "economic conservative/social liberal" view that WP columnists assign to independent voters is actually rare outside of the media and think tanks and big donors.

3) "Establishment politicians" are unpopular, and despite protestations to the contrary, Bernie is clearly not an "establishment politician." Bernie can't be attacked as a triangulating politician connected to Wall Street and lobbyists and all that.

4) It actually does matter that Clinton lost, because all the centrist pundits, as well as people like Chuck Schumer predicting that suburban moderates would put Clinton over the top, were proven catastrophically wrong. It's not just that they thought Clinton would win, they also thought Trump had no chance. If there's ever a time to radically re-evaluate the conventional wisdom, it's after the Trump election.

5) Bernie actually did bring huge numbers of voters to the 2016 primary. He just didn't bring enough to beat Clinton. But, again, none of the centrist pundits thought he would ever get over 10%. Everyone thought he was another Kucinich. The centrist pundits again underestimated his appeal dramatically.

6) As far as actual policies, Bernie's poll well. Economically left policies generally, taxing the rich heavily to pay for more social benefits is highly popular, and not just with Dems. On the other hand, free trade agreements, whether justifiably or not, are highly unpopular, particularly in the states HRC lost. The Iraq War vote is also unpopular.


Lots of other people have made this case. Some of them are in journals that are probably further left than you are used to. But not all (e.g. Matthew Yglesias), and, again, I'd remind you that all the centrist pundits that you feel more comfortable with were completely mistaken about 2016.

[Jirel]

22. More great points.

The most important of these is that we DO have to radically re-evaluate conventional wisdom after the Dump election, but also after Bush's 2 elections. The "safe" and "electable" choice is neither "safe" nor "electable."

[gulliver]

56. Sanders can't really say he has policies if they are not paid for and founded on a reliable plan.

So he comes to the table with no policies.

Can he get away with it? Maybe.

[MoonlitKnight]

15. Florida

Hold the Hillary states and win Florida-boom. Electoral win.

2018 had a Florida governor candidate almost win by backing the same “leftist “ policies. Yes, we lost but we also passed an amendment restoring former felon voting rights. Adding over a million predominantly democratic voters.

Aside from that, Bernie will take some of those Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania voters that went with Trump last time.

I think Warren would do even better. I think Pete could reshuffle the map and win. Biden gets us another nail biter and possible EC loss for the third time this century.

[thesquanderer]

17. Start with: I think that any state that preferred HRC over Trump will also prefer BS over Trump.

Some voters in those states may like Hillary more than Bernie, others may like Bernie more than Hillary, but either way, enough of them don't like Trump that they even chose a candidate who was underwater in favorables (that is, to get as close as she did, she actually had to get many votes from people who didn't particularly like her in those states). So I think all those states likewise go to Bernie. If anything, the demographics favor Bernie more this time, because 4 years later, we have a new influx of voters who were too young to be eligible go vote last time, and the youth vote heavily favors Sanders.

So to me, the big variable as to whether or not Bernie can beat Trump is whether he can sufficiently out-perform Hillary to be able to beat Trump in at least three of these states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Florida. I think he has enough working class appeal to win that chunk of what Hillary couldn't in at least three of those states.

[JudyM]

25. He won Michigan.

And then in November, according to Wikipedia:

Trump's victory in Michigan was attributed to overwhelming and underestimated support from white working-class voters, a demographic group that had previously tended to vote for the Democratic candidate

So he probably has MI sewn up.

Plus he has been polling much better this time around with POC as he’s become better known.

[brooklynite]

26. I absolutely disagree...

I think if Sanders is the nominee, Colorado (Clinton +5), Minnesota (Clinton +1.5) and New Hampshire (Clinton +0.3) are at risk

[thesquanderer]

27. re: "Colorado (Clinton +5), Minnesota (Clinton +1.5) and New Hampshire (Clinton +0.3) are at risk"

I know polls only tell you so much, but FWIW, polls have Sanders beating Trump by 10 points in Colorado, 9 points in Minnesota, and 5 points in NH (RCP average). Even if those leads drop substantially, they still likely beat what Clinton got. He's got lots of room to go down and still win the states.

[Autumn]

47. Bernie carried Colorado in the 2016 primary. And he will win it again.

[Spider Jerusalem]

18. How does a Democratic candidate with 2% support from African-American voters win the GE?

In a recent poll 40% of African-American respondents said they wouldn't vote or would vote for someone else if Buttigieg is the Democratic nominee. So how does he win, as a Democrat?

[Doremus]

23. The list of centrist losers is way longer than Clinton

When's the last time a Progressive lost? Honest question.

By the way, if you want Independents, Sanders has 'em. I think the only candidate with more is Yang.

[Drunken Irishman]

46. Honest question: when was the last time a progressive won?

If we're putting Kerry, Gore and Clinton as centrists, then I'd put Obama there too because he was likely more closer aligned with them than he is with Sanders.

[Doremus]

50. I agree with you.

All the names you've listed are moderates.

[UniteFightBack]

49. Check the 2018 midterms if you want to see progressives losing. nt

[Doremus]

51. That wasn't the question

but thanks for playing.

[UniteFightBack]

53. It actually was the question " When's the last time a Progressive lost? Honest question."

I won.

[booley]

24. well for one thing trump cant use his 2016 playbook.

The attacks used against Clinton won't work.

Sanders has no ties to Wall Street. He isn't seen as corrupt or self-dealing. He didnt vote for the Iraq war. He isnt part of the Democratic party machine. His message has been the same for 40years so it difficult to accuse him of pandering.

So Trump can't use the same attacks he would use on a Centrist Democrat.

Another problem is and i think we overlook this too much.... Trump benefitted from sounding progressive. Trump demagogued on bigotry true. Bit he also promised he would get universal health care, that he cared about the forgotten Americans, that he would deport the "Badddies. He was lying, of course. But that's how a good conman works. A good conman understands what people need and then uses that against them.

Again, Trump can't' do that with Sanders because again Sanders has been pushing for these things for 4yo years. He isn't a fake-progressive and can credibly call trump out for all the broken promises. And then all those people who didn't' vote, all those people who switched from Obama to Trump realize they have a reason to vote for Bernie. You can say "no one new is coming out" and I don't know what you mean because of so many of Sanders supporters are people who previously were not involved in politics. How is that not new people? In any case, no other candidate seems able to attract them.

Sanders hasn't been subject to the oppo attack that will definitely come (

I am seriously wondering what you think the Democratic establishment and their surrogates have been doing for the last year. In fact the last 4 years. Plus if GOP oppo on a candidate was such a strong reason not to be the nominee, then Hillary Clinton should have been disqualified years ago. I recall her using the fact that she was so polarizing because of attacks (both valid and farcical) that this counted as "vetted"

But anyway...

Your primary point if I am understanding it correctly is how would Sanders unite the party.

The simple answer is he will do so the same as every Democratic nominee has ever done.

Most will fall in line because he is the Democratic nominee and they want to win."He can Win" was the entirety of the reason for Biden's poll numbers.

Of course, just like with a quarter of Clinton supporters in 2008, a certain segment of Democrats will stay home or even vote for the republican. That seems to be the norm. Many here might have forgotten the PUMAs (Party Unity My Ass). But just like in 2008, that won't matter if other voters are brought in. The polls say Sanders can do that. Every time someone here complains that Sanders voters may not support anyone else, they are admitting sanders can get voters other candidates can't.

Every nominee is a risk. Obama was a risk. Sanders is a risk.
But historically, the safe candidate has lost again and again Sanders is likley to win for the reason Obama did in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Sanders can get lots of people to trust he will change things.

[Prosper]

28. FDR was elected President 4 times. Some similarities ???

[Fiendish Thingy]

29. Sanders would likely inspire record youth vote turnout

Last edited Wed Feb 5, 2020, 06:28 PM - Edit history (1)

Whereas Biden would likely result in low youth turnout.

If the youth turnout in significant numbers, WE WILL WIN.

[corbettkroehler]

39. I Couldn't Agree More

Here's a helpful set of facts from the 2016 primary...

More Young People Voted For Sanders Than Clinton And Trump Combined – By A Lot

Washington Post
June 20, 2016

[Full Article]

[k2qb3]

31. He could credibly break with the party on one or more of their most costly positions.

That's not what y'all want to hear, I'm sure, but it's true.

There are a couple of planks Democrats have been pouring political capital into for decades without any positive result he could take off the table and just say aren't priorities so he could have a chance to get his actual agenda advanced.

Will he? probably not. I've thought it was really obvious for decades now what the party has sacrificed its entire agenda for but it keeps doubling down on the same stupid so here we are.

I know a lot of independents that like Bernie.

Frankly, almost everyone I know in my red state likes Bernie better than they liked Hillary, so there's that.

[denem]

32. OK, I'll bite.

[Tom Rinaldo]

33. It rests on several observations

The first is that increasingly; in Europe, in Mexico and elsewhere, but also here at home, voters are shedding a strong identification with specific ideologies and are instead casting about looking for something "different"; some kind of break from the established status quo. Obviously that is not true of every voter, but it is a trend. It helps explain how established centrist parties in Europe are continuing to lose sway after sitting in power for decades. Even when a mainline party manages to retain power, often that is because mavericks within it have taken over the political apparatus. From one year to the next, sometimes the electorate seemingly veers left, sometimes it seemingly veers right. Often the same individual voters will support a rightest approach in one election and then a leftist one in the next, or vice versa. Increasingly voters now choose on the basis of the charisma, or even the anti-charisma of a candidate, not the details of his or her political agenda.

You ask how Sanders "can rebuild the Democratic coalition and attract the centrist Independents and moderate Republicans we need to win?" There are clear assumptions implicit in your question, starting with your assumption about whose votes Sanders will need to attract in order to win. As to those "centrist Independents and moderate Republicans" you ask about, yes it is likely that some Democratic candidate other than Sanders might overall do better with those voters. Let's call these people "committed" centrists and moderates, not simply voters up for grabs and perfectly capable of liking Obama one year and Trump the next. I respect those voters, but there are less of them than many people think.

Someone with the convictions of a Mitt Romney has a very shrinking pool of so called moderate Republicans who still identify with him. For many "committed centrists", probably most of them, this election boils down now to a referendum on Trump. If they have not fallen into his cult by now it is unlikely they will become true Trumpers in the next 10 months. These types tend to think that the economy is indeed strong, their continued discomfort with Trump tends not to be about basic policies, it's more about basic humanity. For most of them this election will be more about restoring constitutional democracy, as well as common decency, to America than it will be about the policy priorities of the Democratic candidate. It will be about removing Trump from office first and foremost, and the only person capable of actually doing that will be the man or woman running with the Democratic Party nomination, be that Sanders or Biden, Warren or Buttigieg. So I think Bernie Sanders will still get a very healthy share of those votes even if he does not automatically win their ongoing loyalty once the election is over.

But I conceded to you some slippage from that pool of voters, relative to another Democratic Party candidate, so how does Sanders make that up? For one thing, he picks up about a million Green Party votes. Why do I say a million? Jill Stein got almost 400,000 votes running in 2012, and just over 1.4 million running in 2016. With Sanders as our nominee I think Green Party support goes back to its core 2012 level and Sanders gets the difference. For another thing, whether or not you believe that Sanders can mobilize massive amounts of young voters to come out for him as the Democratic nominee, he will increase the percentage of young voters actually voting Democratic in 2020. It defies logic to think otherwise. Any voting group turns out in higher numbers when their enthusiasm for a candidate runs high relative to their normal baseline. Blacks voted in higher numbers for Barack Obama than they did for Hillary Clinton, even though Black voters for the most part genuinely liked Hillary Clinton. And there is indeed the possibility that, should the once almost unthinkable happen and Bernie Sanders actually wins the nomination, that young voters will see this as their inter-generational defining moment and turn out to vote in numbers much higher than expected, as peer pressure builds on peer pressure to be part of a growing movement for change.

But that's not the main place where Sanders can pick up "new" votes. He picks up votes from people who don't trust those who they see as benefiting from the status quo in America. He picks up change voters, including some who had doubts about Donald Trump but were willing to do something radical to overturn a game board that they saw as rigged against them. Sanders keeps the solidly Democratic electorate because they understand that Trump must be defeated, even those who don't particularly care for Bernie Sanders get that. On election night it is a binary choice. Four more years of Trump or elect the Democratic candidate whoever that may be. Where Sanders has an advantage is in picking up votes from those who are not already firmly in the democratic camp.

You know the phrase "That's just Trump being Trump"? There will be a similar phrase for Bernie. Everyone assumed that as soon as people heard all of the dirt about Trump they could not possibly vote for Trump. They were wrong. Trump got away with dissing vets, with "hiring illegals" on his golf courses, with breaking election laws, with "grabbing pussy", with walking in on Teen Miss America contestants unannounced while they were undressed, etc. etc. etc. Red baiting won't sink Bernie Sanders because too many people believe that he at least is honestly willing to fight for them against all of the big interests. Attacks from mainstream Democrats only add to Bernie's creds for legitimacy as someone outside of entrenched circles of power. And it doesn't matter whether or not I agree with those voters on who is or who is not actually corrupt, what matters when it comes time to vote is what they believe. Sanders can pick up some rust state voters that other candidates would struggle to reach, and that by itself could be the whole ball game.

[bluesxtreme]

34. My Opinion

Obviously this is opinion based but when we voted Obama it was based largely on "yes we can".

Then with Clinton it was "status quo" and we missed out on how much change was desired from the far right majority of the people who wanted religiosity/tax breaks/etc. Trump represented the anti-status quo and was an outsider.

There's plenty of this playing out in our current primary with Warren saying we are not the party of no, yet many pine for the "normalcy and nostalgia" of pre-trump. The reality is the bar is already moved and what we see as going back to "normalcy" is not as desirable. I feel this is one of the major reasons Biden didn't do as well in Iowa.

Sanders and Warren still represent something we all truly desire: meaningful change. Not just going back to the way it was, but think about all that ails us, health care, making enough for a true standard of living, climate change. Even Klobachar and Buttegiug at least offer some compelling change.

Obama was bold and challenged status quo, which is why it always surprises me that everyone poo poos "progressives as too far left". Nothing wrong with idealism or championing issues. If you can't push forward bold ideas then what is the point of running other than to say: I won't do anything crazy in office. Ok, that doesn't change anything for the ones who are really suffering. And frankly i'm lucky enough to not have to worry about many things and I do feel I should pay my fair share of taxes. But I have to consider what my children will face in the future.

So that's why I think someone who pushes for bold change is going to fight for something bigger than just incremental changes.

[brooklynite]

36. "we" are not all the voters...

If you can't push forward bold ideas then what is the point of running

Winning so you actually can get something accomplished.

[corbettkroehler]

37. Easily Done

The 2016 post mortem laid it out precisely.

More Young People Voted For Sanders Than Clinton And Trump Combined – By A Lot

Washington Post
June 20, 2016

[Full Article]

[TwilightZone]

45. Based on Iowa, he's lost half the support he had in 2016.

2016 means nothing in the context of the current cycle. It's a whole new cycle, and Iowa's low turnout and only slightly-higher turnout in young voters debunks the myth that Sanders is going to draw waves of new, young voters in 2020.

[corbettkroehler]

60. A Plum Misinterpretation, Per Usual

Berners are encouraged by the fact that Sanders 2020 outpulled Obama's 2008 Iowa numbers with young voters and we feel even better about how this bodes for the rest of the primary and on into the general!

Link to tweet

[Prosper]

41. Trump proposed healthcare for all no exclusions.

This and other promises very similar to Bernie’s. All Bernie has to do is point out the similarities. What is Trump going to do. Say he was lying about what he promised.

Healthcare:
“We’re going to have insurance for everybody,” Trump said in an interview with The Washington Post. “There was a philosophy in some circles that if you can’t pay for it, you don’t get it. That’s not going to happen with us.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/trump-obamacare-promises-236021

Student loans:
“We would cap repayment for an affordable portion of the borrower’s income, 12.5 percent, we’d cap it. That gives you a lot to play with and a lot to do,” Trump said at a rally in Columbus, Ohio, on Thursday. “And if borrowers work hard and make their full payments for 15 years, we’ll let them get on with their lives. They just go ahead and they get on with their lives.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/news/grade-point/wp/2016/10/13/trump-just-laid-out-a-pretty-radical-student-debt-plan/%3foutputType=amp

All Bernie has to do is list every promise Trump made and point out how similar they are. If he wants to criticize Brrmie’s plans as socialist, then Bernie cites the same promises Trump made that are similar to his own. Publish Trump’s and Brrnie’s.

And on and on.

[Lexblues]

42. Bernie will destroy our Congressional candidates...we might lose the House

I look forward to our candidates in red/purple states having to say whether they will vote for the socialist nominee or not. Also, they will be asked if they are socialist too. It'll be exhausting.

And even if Bernie attracts new voters to vote for him, there's no guarantee they will vote for other Democrats. Most of his voters are just Bernie voters, and no one else. We could get wiped out.

[SidDithers]

43. CaUsE hE's ThE bEsT!!1!...nt

Sid

[Gravitycollapse]

44. Read this...

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

[guillaumeb]

52. At this point, any argument over electability is speculation,

often based on what the person speaking sees as the key to electability.

In my view, more important is mobilization, voter outreach,and eventual unity around the candidate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. We can not win without

We can not win without at least a tie in the suburbs. Dems wins by crushing it in the cities, fighting to a tie in the suburbs, and mitigating their losses in rural areas. Everything else is commentary

[RandySF]

55. AZ, FL, NC and TX come off the table right away.

Cal Cunningham, Mark Kelly, Theresa Greenfield and Sara Gideon lose their Senate races. We lose the House and get swamped in the state legislatures and lose 2 governorships.

[jg10003]

57. Challange accepted.

1] He appeals to the same anti-establishment frustrations that trump does. That is why in 2016 many trump supporters said they would vote for Sanders, even though they had opposite positions on most issues.

2] trump exploited people’s frustrations by inflaming their fears, anxieties, and prejudices. Sanders addresses people’s frustrations by giving them hope.

3] Sanders cannot be swift-boated like HRC or Biden. In his long career there has never been a hint of scandal. His honesty and integrity is acknowledged by all.

4] Focus - Nothing distracts Bernie from his message. Trump is a master of distracting the press and public with trivialities and making the election about his opponent. But Bernie is to focused on his message, and to smart to fall into any trap set for him. No matter what juvenile insults, lies, and accusations trump makes, Sanders will always stick to his message. If Sanders is the nominee I imagine the political conversation will go something like this:

Reporter: Senator, Trump has said you are a crazy old man. Your response?
Bernie: Medical care is a right not a privilege.
Reporter: Senator, Trump called your wife a “fatty”. What do you say to him?
Bernie: It is time for the top 1 percent to pay their fair share of taxes.
Reporter: Trump claims that your great-grandfather killed Abraham Lincoln.
Bernie: Public college should be tuition free.

5] He has been explaining his brand of socialism for 50 years and is very good at it. We all know that whoever is the nominee, the republicans will say he or she is a socialist. If Biden, Warren, or Buttigige is the nominee they will have to constantly explain why they are not a socialist. This puts them in a defensive position, which is never a good thing. If Sanders is the nominee he will say “yes I am a socialist and this is what I believe...”. And since Sanders has been explaining democratic socialism for 50 years, this puts him in the very position he wants.

6] The cold war has been over for 30 years. An entire generation has grown up without equating democratic socialism with communism and repressive authoritarian regimes.

7] People don’t vote for technocrats like HRC, Gore, and Dukakis. They vote for a person who they believe understands them. Bernie connects with people. People feel that Bernie understands them and wants to help. He gives the impression of a gruff but kind-hearted grandpa who only wants what is best for you.

[Cicada]

58. Voters know crazy stuff won't pass the senate, good stuff might

42 million who owe student loans will see it go away by presidential decree on day 1. Some Trump voters have student loans. They might flip. Most beneficiaries of the Affordable Care Act live in Republican congressional districts. Sanders can explain Trump is killing it. Some must live on limited social security alone. Sanders may get an increase. Again some a Trump voters may flip. Medicare for all will never pass so no need to fear that. Most Republicans favor increasing tax on the rich. Many Trump voters agree the rich are ripping us off. A lot of the alienated Trumpers will agree with many things Sanders says.