Pete Buttigieg's Iowa delegate play

[brooklynite]

Politico

STORM LAKE, Iowa — Over the past three weeks, Pete Buttigieg swept through midsize Iowa cities in Obama-Trump counties, a go-everywhere attempt to deliver on his closing message of bringing in Democrats, independents and former Republicans and promote the idea of electability.

But the travel schedule was also calibrated to the Iowa caucuses’ specific, esoteric rules — and Buttigieg’s best chance of making a big splash on Monday. In an Electoral College-like twist, the Iowa caucuses’ delegate system gives some extra weight to less-populated areas, and a candidate who hits the viability threshold — at least 15 percent support — to win state delegates in most of those areas could rack up an outsize advantage Monday night.

It’s particularly important for Buttigieg to outperform in Iowa because of a weakness in other primary and caucus states coming up after mid-February. And Storm Lake Times editor Art Cullen, who has endorsed Elizabeth Warren, noted that the “marginal votes in rural precincts add up quickly.”

For other candidates, warned Iowa Democratic strategist Jeff Link, “there’s a real penalty in not being viable in those smaller precincts, especially when the race is so tight.”

In January, Buttigieg crisscrossed the largely rural counties western Iowa, stopping in Harlan, Algona, Arnolds Park, drawing hundred-person crowds. In contrast, Amy Klobuchar and Bernie Sanders reserved their stops to the biggest cities, like Council Bluffs and Sioux City, though Klobuchar did notch a visit to each of Iowa’s 99 counties by late December. Warren, meanwhile, has spent little time in western Iowa in recent months.

[comradebillyboy]

1. Huge win for Pete. He did a great job in Iowa.

[amuse bouche]

2. I like Pete. Intelligence and a shot of young blood and ideas

[R B Garr]

3. So much for the Sanders' surge. Five years campaigning

for President and beaten by a “centrist”.

[Wellstone ruled]

4. Pete followed the 1992 model of

Tom Harkin. You work the County Seat Towns and talk to the Newspaper Guy and Gals in those towns. First newspaper read in those areas are the Local papers.

[jg10003]

5. Tom Harkin was was Iowa's favorite son.

He was in Congress for 40 years and was the most powerful man in the state. In 1992 the other candidates didn't even bother to compete in Iowa.

[Wellstone ruled]

6. Darn,did look that way to me,

was their canvasing for Harkin at the time. It was not a phone in by a long shot.

[Blue_true]

7. Look like some candidates made the same mistake that Hillary made

in Florida in the 16 General. Small counties and cities cumulatively add up to a good bit of votes, even if one loses them, reducing an opponent's margin of victory in them likely results in a statewide victory for the democrat that use such a strategy.

[brooklynite]

8. A reminder of a story Elissa Slotkin (MI-8) told me

She has a largely rural district, and was planning to go campaign inn the heavily Republican communities. Someone asked her why she would bother, since her predecessor had lost those districts by 90%. She replied that her goals was to lose them by 70%. Every vote helps.