AT THIS HOUR - DELEGATE ESTIMATE

[Scurrilous]

Sorry, I can't stop laughing. This is what everyone is all worked up about?

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

1. But but the SURGE

Yea yawn

[I_M_Blue_2]

34. If Biden cannot beat an admitted socialist

within the Democratic primary, how can we believe he is strong enough to beat Trump and defend our Democracy

[Cha]

39. It's Iowa that is not Diverse and it has Caucuses..

Pete's ahead of the self described "socialist".

[I_M_Blue_2]

42. Good, Bloomberg can defeat Trump the others cannot

[Cha]

45. That's your opinion.

[NurseJackie]

47. Iowa Demographics (So very white.)

Iowa DemographicsIowa Demographics (So very white.) But not as white as Vermont or New Hampshire.

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population/

According to the most recent ACS, the racial composition of Iowa was:

White: 90.28%
Black or African American: 3.51%
Asian: 2.40%
Two or more races: 2.10%
Other race: 1.25%
Native American: 0.37%
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander: 0.10%

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/new-hampshire-population/
http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/vermont-population/

Interesting, no?

[Cha]

48. Ikr.. and it's really weird to have

to even point that out.

And, who do the caucuses represent? Certainly not everybody who votes in Iowa.. with the lower turnout.

Thanks for the graphic, Jackie!

[Scurrilous]

50. Along w/ NH - tiny white and oh so significant.

[NurseJackie]

52. It's not representative... but those that benefit never want to acknowledge it.

[Scurrilous]

43. Hmmmmmm

Since '72 only one Democrat has won an Iowa caucus and become President - Obama. Their track record is horrendous.

This seems sketchy.

Link to tweet

[Blue_true]

49. Iowa has tilted left on their vote for a long, long time.

It is no surprise that a person like Bernie would do well in Iowa.

People are talking up Super Tuesday, but the important democratic primaries this year will be the ones in Florida and Georgia. I believe they will put the eventual nominee on the path to that nomination. The reason is where they are positioned between the Super Tuesday and the upper east primaries (New York, Pennsylvania, Conneticutt, Rhode Island). The upper east primaries will likely seal the deal this year.

[George II]

2. Over the weekend I was estimating the delegates:

Sanders 11
Warren 11
Buttigieg 10
Biden 9

This isn't much different. Buttigieg +4, Sanders +1, Warren -3, Biden -3, Klobuchar +1

[Cha]

40. Wonder what the final delegate count will be?

[underpants]

3. Before Super Tuesday exactly 4% of delegates are up for grabs

Yep. A whopping 4%.

[texasfiddler]

4. Sanders has 6 more delegates than Biden?

Out of ~4000 delegates? Oh heavens!

[Scurrilous]

5. Time to eject.

[LongtimeAZDem]

9. HE'S DOOMED, I TELLS YA! DOOOOOOOOMED!

[George II]

19. hE sHoUlD dRoP oUt ImMeDiAtElY!!!!

[R B Garr]

29. LOL

[Scurrilous]

46. ...

[Pololv]

53. I see what you did there!

That poster is delusional.

[HarlanPepper]

6. Love that Pete stole Bernie's thunder.

[Scurrilous]

12. Me too. Bernie worked hard to get these first three.

I like this part. Bernie used this:

Unity Reform Commission

https://democrats.org/unity-reform-commission/

To do this:

According to a person with direct knowledge with the process which led to the rule changes, Iowa's "Frankenstein caucus" was the result of accommodations for Sanders supporters who wanted to maintain Iowa's and Nevada's first-in-the-nation caucuses, rather than end the practice of holding caucuses altogether, because caucuses were thought to favor Sanders. The use of the app was necessitated by rules put in place to make the caucuses more like primaries by releasing more data, including first-round preference totals.'

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bernie-sanders-iowa-caucus-winner-trump-democrats-a9317761.html

He used the Unity Reform Meetings to lobby for keeping the caucus format and skew Iowa and Nevada in his favor.

[R B Garr]

28. That sounds like rigging the system.

Trump also accuses others of what he is actually doing.

[Scurrilous]

37. Yes he rigged two out of three. The other favored him heavily.

He had a real murderers row going. Pete screwed that up.

The thing that kills me is the TV news talking points catapulters in here contending that those three are of dire importance...even though they're rigged,

We notice it's a trap but willingly go along with it because spin and narrative should dictate our behavior, not common sense.

I had a bad night...

[betsuni]

35. Also sounds like a thumb on the scale.

[Scurrilous]

38. Not the first time. Self serving.

Last edited Wed Feb 5, 2020, 06:11 PM - Edit history (1)

Collects two months of unemployment. Ran out of benefits, then campaigned for unlimited benefits...for all.

"Sanders, according to an article in 1974 in the Bennington Banner, was one of them. He was on unemployment for a few months in 1971. In subsequent Liberty Union campaigns he advocated for “the doing away with all time limitations for unemployment benefits.”

Under activities 1971 -1976 Involved in making Vermont Educational Television open to local filmmakers.

Under employment 1976 -1981 Wrote and produced educational filmstrips.

[LanternWaste]

7. Though I get the obsession with the first steps of a marathon...

we'd be idiots to use that as a valid indicator as to who has any real, measurable advantages, let alone who eventually wins or not.

Too many impatient hipsters who think Primary Season should be binge-watched over the course of one weekend.

[Scurrilous]

13. Nice. Really nice.

[bluewater]

16. "Too many impatient hipsters"

lol

Everyone here on DU is in their 70's.

I exaggerate for effect. That, as you are well aware, is a rhetorical device.



Sorry, but I amused myself.

[krissey]

8. Buttigieg won in a race Sanders should have taken in a landslide. That is the good news in this.

[HarlanPepper]

32. Absolutely

Bernie’s twitter supporters have been saying he would win Iowa by a large margin but that’s not going to happen.

[jayschool2013]

10. Way to go, Liz!

And Pete!
And Bernie!
And Amy!
And Joe!

[still_one]

51. Nice post! +++

[Squinch]

11. Right? It's less than 1% of the total! And these dopes spend MILLIONS on it.

[Scurrilous]

14. $63 million.

Pé Resists@4everNeverTrump

The Democratic candidates spent about $63 million in Iowa leading up to the caucuses.

170,000 people caucused.

That's $370 per caucus-goer.

[krissey]

27. Wow. lol. That is a lot of $27s. And then I am hearing he was going to use his win to

get more 27s and was not able to because he was consoling his supporters and staff. Bummer all the way around.

[MineralMan]

15. Exactly what I've been saying for a couple of weeks.

There aren't enough delegates there to make any difference at all. There never were. Iowa is irrelevant. Completely.

[thesquanderer]

17. The reason Iowa is not irrelevant is well described here...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-might-have-screwed-up-the-whole-nomination-process

[MineralMan]

20. Iowa will be forgotten on March 3. Completely.

I don't care what 538 says. It will be saying something else on March 4.

[thesquanderer]

21. Yes it will be forgotten on March 3. It's still relevant for reasons described at the link. n/t

[MineralMan]

23. Nope. Sorry.

[thesquanderer]

33. People do tend to believe numbers that support their candidates and dispute ones that don't. n/t

[Scurrilous]

18. You were right MineralMan

I'm a bit loopy right now from staying up too late arguing pretty much the same thing. Now pretty graphics to make the point.

[William769]

24. I don't get it.

[murielm99]

25. Hi, William!

It is good to see you again.

[William769]

26. You too!

[brooklynite]

30. Biden seems worked up about it...

Biden concedes Iowa was 'a gut punch'

First head rolls after Biden's weak Iowa finish

Biden’s Poor Showing in Iowa Shakes Establishment Support

[LongtimeAZDem]

31. Read the comments for the NPR tweet; good illustration of a particular demographic

[Scurrilous]

41. Yep. Bears this out (found on wiki article about civics education)

'In the 21st century, young people are less interested in direct political participation (i.e. being in a political party or even voting), but are motivated to use digital media (e.g. Twitter, Facebook)'

[Tiggeroshii]

36. I have a feeling Pete is gonna fall behind at 100%

And Joe is gonna regain 2nd.

[Retrograde]

44. because - IOWA!

And somehow the people who live in the middle of the continent are purer and more in tune with what the country needs than those elitist ones on the coasts. There are times when I think the fourth estate confuses Iowa caucus attendees with Punxsutawney Phil. Hmmm - another reason not to have caucuses/primaries so early.

[Scurrilous]

55. Punxsutawney Phil!! LOL

Perfect. The NY Times did that with the endorsements thing saying Warren had 'Midwestern grit' like personality traits have definable regional values.

I remember Daily Show going to Alaska during the Sarah 'small town values' Palin media love fest that followed her joining McCain's ticket and interviewing random people to try and assess the validity of the small towns have more values claim.

The interviewees were roundly clueless, stupid, and because Alaska, drunk.

[ehrnst]

54. There are those who are clapping reaaaalllllyyyy hard tho...