Nate Cohn analysis of Iowa turnout

[brooklynite]

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[W_HAMILTON]

1. What happens on the internet is not always reflective of reality.

Don't let loudmouths on the internet depress our Democratic vote this time around because you believe that everyone must think like them -- everyone doesn't think like them.

[brooklynite]

2. How is analysis from a Times correspondent depressing turnout?

[W_HAMILTON]

4. I wasn't referring to that.

I was referring to the fact that Sanders online supporters, in particular, can be very loud and obnoxious on the internet, bragging that they were going to overwhelm everyone with their turnout and that the polls were all bs and didn't accurately capture young people and that they were so motivated to support Sanders and that we all better just fall in line and if we don't, they will just vote third party again, blah blah blah.

But when the actual voters weighed in, they did not echo this same sentiment that is pervasive on the internet. Even the Sanders supporters in the caucus said that they would vote for whichever Democrat won the nomination. Reporters couldn't find caucus goers that would refuse to vote for whoever the eventual Democratic nominee was.

My point is that the shit you hear on the internet is not reflective of reality. People do not know who is posting that shit. It can be a real person that truly believes what they say. Or it can be a Republican hoping to depress your vote in order to help get Republicans elected. Or it can be a Russian bot. Moral of the story, don't let them dissuade you from the primary objective, which is to remove this traitorous asshole from the White House come November.

[redqueen]

3. How is "areas where 18-24 year olds represent" blah blah blah a better metric

than just the number of 18-24 year olds voting?!

[Recursion]

16. We don't have good caucus exit polling data by age

So the best the statisticians can do is look at what the age demographics of a precinct are.

[bluewater]

5. Bernie's supporters are aging up and include many people in the 25-40 range now.

Did turn out increase in that age bracket?

Did Sanders share of that age bracket increase?

Every four years, voters get four years older.

[Cornell Engineer]

6. A couple days before the caucus

Last edited Wed Feb 5, 2020, 07:00 PM - Edit history (1)

I said I didn't care so much about who actually won but was way more interested in turnout. Said I wanted to see at least 200,000 if not more and it wasn't even close to that and instead very close to 2016's turnout which was way below 2008.

I sure hope this is just Iowa and isn't a trend that shows up in others states. Guess all them Iowa farmers who were devastated by the trade war with China like socialist welfare a lot more than they are willing to admit...as long as it's a Republican giving them the handouts.

[melman]

7. More from Nate Cohn

Link to tweet

[Wellstone ruled]

8. Just had a hunch turnout

would be short of some predictions. As someone who has serviced Business as well as Ag in Rural Communities including Iowa. If that Caucus was Run on this Saturday . You would have seen one heck of a turnout. Day after a Natonal Sports Event is usually a total Turd for anything. Been down that path for five decades.

[Cornell Engineer]

10. Yeah, really gotta admire them Iowans

They'll stand up to fascism but only on weekends when they don't have a Super Bowl hangover.

Let's cut to the chase...the real reason why turnout was so piss-poor is because a) there isn't any tremendous enthusiastic support for any of the Dem candidates and b) there isn't a groundswell of opposition to Trump. They had a turnout of around 240,000 back in 2008 because Dems were inspired by Obama and they hated Dubya so it was a double whammy that made turnout skyrocket.

Like I said, I hope to hell this is mostly peculiar to IoWTF and is not an omen portending what is to come because it's really bad news if it is.

[Cha]

9. KR

[corbettkroehler]

11. The Entrance Polls Showed Sanders Out Pulling Obama From 2008

Link to tweet

[Cornell Engineer]

12. And Exit Polls

show that Sanders lost half his Iowa supporters in 2020 compared to 2016.

Either I'm holding the chart upside down or that's the wrong direction.

[corbettkroehler]

13. Remember Those Vaunted Process Reforms For Which Bernie Was Criticized?

One of the big ones was that his team told ALL HIS IOWA VOTERS that they could leave after the first alignment if they were in a hurry. The skewed results make perfect sense.

Link to tweet

[Cornell Engineer]

14. "If they were in a hurry"?

So lemme get this straight...Bernie losing voters during realignment is simply because his supporters were "more busy" than Warren's???

Great, so Iowa "democracy" is now a timed sport like football or hockey. I prefer it to be a little more like baseball myself.

Every time I read a post by a Sanders supporter a line keeps popping into my head...

"Forgive them, Father, for they know not what they do."

And I'm not even that religious! Which is unfortunate because if we nominate Bernie I'm gonna have to start praying for a miracle in November.

[corbettkroehler]

15. Such A Sympathetic Tone!

I have nothing to say about Warren's supporters because I have no expertise in their demographics. What I CAN SAY is that Bernie received extensive feedback after coming in a close second in 2016 that many of his voters wanted to participate in the Iowa caucus save the extensive time commitment. Remember, when you live paycheck to paycheck, spending $50 or $100 on a babysitter and fuel takes food from hungry mouths.

Scoff all you like. This is real and, despite your smarmy position, explains his 2020 exit poll numbers. Besides, in PLENTY of precincts (far more than Sanders), Warren wasn't even viable in the first alignment. If anything, your arguments MAKES MY CASE FOR ME.

[W_HAMILTON]

17. Did Sanders offer free childcare during the caucus like Warren did?

[corbettkroehler]

20. Even If He Had, Telling Folks To Head Home Early If They Wanted Was The Better Choice

When I vote in Florida, not matter which cycle, the process takes AT MOST 15 minutes, usually 5. The caucus approach to measuring voter enthusiasm and preference is anachronistic.

[Scurrilous]

18. He is such an awesome and good kind person who kindly does good awesomely.

He used the Unity Commission that was supposed to heal wounds from 2106 to prevent scrapping of the Iowa and Nevada caucuses because he did better in that format. IOW the only reason those people had to waste all day there was because Bernie rigged it that way. It was his idea.

[corbettkroehler]

19. Bernie Rigged It?! Hilarious!

In the end, though, it's moot.

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