538: Bernie Sanders now forecasted with best chance to Win Democratic Primary

[Tiggeroshii]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo


Explanation of update here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-post-iowa-primary-forecast-is-up-and-bidens-chances-are-down/

Biden's chances are now in third place behind "nobody"

GO BERNIE!!!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. We're screwed if that's true.

[Tiggeroshii]

4. Giving up so quickly?

Conceding before the fight has even started? We are better than that.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

7. I'm not giving up the fight to be sure the nominee

is someone else who can actually beat Trump.

[Tiggeroshii]

10. If he is the nominee, I hope your tune changes quickly. We must be united.

Regardless of who our candidate is!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

17. I will vote for the nominee, of course.

I just hope it's not him. Even if by some miracle he won, I don't think he'd be an effective president because he's a rigid ideologue with few legislative accomplishments and a tendency to hire or endorse divisive people who seem to think taking potshots at real Democrats is a good thing.

[Tiggeroshii]

21. Rigid ideologues get things done.

You can hate on Trump as much as you want (I do and I will), but he is getting a lot done for the fanatics on the right. We would be good to have a strong leftward push to make up for the 30 years we already lost under Trump (left wing judges, executive order legalizing pot and forgiving student loans, undoing every Trump executive order, etc)

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

42. Actually they don't because they can't get people to work for or with them.

Sanders has been kicking Democrats in the nuts for years. I don't see how he can expect them to have his back after all he's done is disrespect them.

[Thekaspervote]

45. This!

[imavoter]

57. he also won't get any cross over vote

I'll be voting for anything that is blue.
But others need a viable vote to cross over.
The young people would be really motivated, but I'm not sure if that is enough.

[YOHABLO]

84. Sanders has been voting with Democrats for years. Quit lying.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

89. Have a look at the various comments and tweets of his campaign staff

and then tell me he doesn't kick Democrats in the nuts, if not directly then through his surrogates. And accusing another DUer of lying isn't very nice, especially when it's the truth. Bernie kicks real Democrats in the nuts.

[YOHABLO]

94. I'm very confident in the stance that Bernie has, not his staffers.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

102. If his staff are saying things that don't reflect his stance,

why does he keep them on? The fact that he hasn't fired Sirota or Turner or Gray suggests that he approves what they say. Isn't the buck supposed to stop at the top?

[George II]

99. Not as much as many would like to think.

[krissey]

48. "Rigid ideologues get things done." His record tells us otherwise.

[ehrnst]

105. A lot gets accomplished under authoritarians... for instance, the trains run on time...

[ehrnst]

110. ...they said, with no evidence in an entirely speculative and dismissive fashion.

[UniteFightBack]

122. Wow is that statement wrong and quite comical. nt

[Kurt V.]

32. so was Reagan. but this timr from the left. It's worth consideration.

[TheRealNorth]

20. +1000

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

51. We will ALL unite behind Bernie! COUNT ON IT!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[AverageJoe]

128. This Sanders supporter....

...will vote blue, no matter who! I hope everyone feels the same, no matter your candidate of choice. We have to win this thing.

[ehrnst]

22. Predicting a winner of the GE before the first Primary is finished is over is wiser?

The GOP wants Bernie as the nominee again, so they have done what they can to support him...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/14/us/politics/trump-sanders-bloomberg-2020.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/17/indictment-russians-also-tried-help-bernie-sanders-jill-stein-presidential-campaigns/348051002/

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/07/bernie-sanders-republican-senate-1307296

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/20/18508880/karl-rove-bernie-sanders-could-beat-donald-trump-in-2020


and stoke anger at Democratic leaders in Sanders supporters...

https://www.businessinsider.com/gop-claim-pelosi-intentionally-helping-biden-and-hurting-bernie-sanders-2020-1

The polls about a Trump/Sanders matchup don't take into account that the GOP (and Russia) is holding their ammunition against him now, and would open fire in a GE.

So there's that.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

31. We sure are Tig! Glad to see ima better prognosticator than 538;been callin it for Bernie for YEARS!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[ehrnst]

96. Well, there's this...

Got me worried about who's actually donating... could be a problem for him.

https://www.commoncause.org/press-release/common-cause-files-complaint-against-pro-bernie-sanders-group-our-revolution-for-violating-soft-money-ban/

[Horizens]

44. If it's bernie

we're definitely screwed.

[redstateblues]

90. If Bernie wins the nomination we're looking at 4 more years

[totodeinhere]

93. If Bernie is strong enough to beat out a very talented field to get the nomination

then he is certainly strong enough to beat Trumpster Dumpster.

[stonecutter357]

2. good let's go Joe !

[Tiggeroshii]

3. ...

[stonecutter357]

6. .

[lynintenn]

8. That means 4 more years of Trump . When will you ever learn.

[ehrnst]

23. So you think that Democrats can't be trusted to choose their favorite candidate?

By nearly 4 million...

Who then went on to get more votes than any candidate not named Obama?

Someone who was chosen most admired woman in the world for 20 years running?

Why do you have that low opinion of Democratic voters?

You think that someone else should make the selection instead? Perhaps override the choice of Democratic voters?

[Tiggeroshii]

24. I don't have an opinion of the Democratic/ Republican and Independent voters who

participated in the Democratic primaries and caucuses in the elections you might be referring to. But I do know that sometimes they made choices that won us the General Election, and sometimes they didn't.

[ehrnst]

25. Are you saying that Democrats didn't choose the candidate?

Can you provide any evidence of that?

That nearly 4 million votes were somehow not attributable to Democrats?

Do tell.

[Tiggeroshii]

27. No. I'm not saying that.

I did say that more than just Democrats chose our candidate -which I feel is common knowledge as we have several states with open primaries and caucuses.

[ehrnst]

30. That's what you're implying... that nearly four million votes could be attributed to

Republicans and independents voting in open primaries, and not Democrats. "More than just Democrats..."

Without any evidence.

Much like a famous politician who ends a sentence with an accusation with, 'well, who knows?" and also claimed that votes that HRC got were somehow not really what they appeared to be...

[Tiggeroshii]

34. I don't really know what you're talking about exactly, so it is difficult to have this discussion.

[ehrnst]

40. I'm talking about ***your*** implication that Republicans and Independents voting

in open primaries were the reason that HRC got the nomination.

let's review...





Now you can play, "I don't know what you're talking about" all you want, but it's pretty obvious.

"More than just Democrats chose our candidate..." Yes, hon, enough to choose our candidate by nearly 4 million...



"I do know that they (those non-democrats voting in open primaries...) made choices that sometimes won us the general election, and sometimes they don't."

Subtle....Totally talking about the general now, and not the primary AT ALL.



Just like when a famous politician starts an outrageous claim with "some people say," then trails off at the end with "well, who knows..."



Go on...

[Tiggeroshii]

41. Still don't know what you are talking about because none of that happened.

Oh look, these crayons look yummy!

[ehrnst]

49. No one, not even you, believes that you "don't know" what I'm talking about..

But do go on...

[Tiggeroshii]

53. Newsflash

I don't know what most people are talking about...

[ehrnst]

60. Keep on telling yourself that you're convincing anyone.

[Tiggeroshii]

61. I am legitimately confused.

But I like your emojis!

[ehrnst]

65. Keep on keeping on...

Still not convincing anyone.

[Tiggeroshii]

68. Thanks!

I think.

[ehrnst]

70. URTURN

Still not working. What's that saying about doing the same thing over and over again thinking that you'll get different results?



It's all there for everyone to see.

"Let's not be insane, people!" as you said yourself.

[ehrnst]

76. Democratic voters didn't choose the candidate that we now know Russia and the GOP wanted

As the record shows:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/17/indictment-russians-also-tried-help-bernie-sanders-jill-stein-presidential-campaigns/348051002/

https://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/20/bernie-sanders-gets-some-outside-help-he-didnt-ask-for/

So, that sort of shoots a hole in your claim that "GOP and "independent' voters in open primaries did the choosing, doesn't it?

That newsflash should make you less "confused."

[Tiggeroshii]

77. I live in a permanent state of confusion

Nothing you can do can change that.

[ehrnst]

80. Nothing you can do can convince me that your "confusion,"

isn't just a red herring..

Ur Turn to continue to try to convince anyone.

[Tiggeroshii]

82. Well that is kind of you.

[ehrnst]

83. Keep on keeping on...

Still can't get any more recs for the OP, no matter how much you keep it kicked.

You're welcome.


Backpedal away...

[Tiggeroshii]

95. Woah that guy is GOOD

[ehrnst]

98. Doesn't hold a candle to you!

[Thekaspervote]

26. You are absolutely right! It would be insanity to nominate sanders!!

Link to tweet

?s=21

Link to tweet

?s=21

Link to tweet

?s=21

[ChubbyStar]

39. Joe can't seem to quit Iowa

I guess it isn't in the stars.

[Thekaspervote]

47. The above post is a lot more than IA!!

[ChubbyStar]

54. Of course dear, according to you

Iowa is meaningless, but the implications are far reaching. He came in fourth, and I do not see it getting better for Joe.

[Thekaspervote]

59. That is your opinion.

[ChubbyStar]

63. Of course it is, but coming in fourth is not my opinion

It might have been lower....

[Thekaspervote]

71. Your refusal to face other numbers other than Joe came in 4th, in the end will not serve well

[ChubbyStar]

72. Serve well? WTF I am your waiter now?

Give it a rest.

[Thekaspervote]

85. Subtly is lost... "dear"

[ChubbyStar]

92. No not really

For months the Biden crowd has been preening around as if they don't have a care in the world. Joe lost his ass in Iowa, are you planning on picking it up for him?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

38. Yeah, tired of losin! We learned by nominating Obama; now it's Bernie's time to finish the job

or else we're looking at 4 more years of the Traitor-in-Chief!! We can't afford to let that happen... we need Bernie like never before to shine the light of truth on progressive issues that truly matter to the working class and poor folks in this country... Bernie is the best viable candidate who can show us the way forward in fighting Corporate Socialism and lead us to The Promised Land... the White House where President Sanders will take his rightful place!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[Locrian]

43. exactly - I've seen this movie before: people are sick and tired of the establishment - n/t

[totodeinhere]

97. Apparently you have not seen the many polls showing Bernie beating Trump.

Yes it's early and polls fluctuate, but if I were you I would not make any negative assumptions about Bernie's electability.

[ehrnst]

121. You mean the polls that don't take into account that he's been the favored Dem nominee of Russia

and the GOP for years?

And that if he actually got the nomination, all the ammunition that they have been storing up for years would be deployed from both barrels?

Those polls?

https://www.businessinsider.com/gop-claim-pelosi-intentionally-helping-biden-and-hurting-bernie-sanders-2020-1

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/20/18508880/karl-rove-bernie-sanders-could-beat-donald-trump-in-2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/14/us/politics/trump-sanders-bloomberg-2020.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/17/indictment-russians-also-tried-help-bernie-sanders-jill-stein-presidential-campaigns/348051002/

https://www.businessinsider.com/bernie-sanders-central-to-russias-pro-trump-2016-strategy-study-2019-4

[totodeinhere]

123. LOL. You know I didn't mean that.

And as far as what the Russians want, they had better watch out what they wish for.

[ehrnst]

125. Your words, yes?

Apparently you have not seen the many polls showing Bernie beating Trump.

Are you saying that you don't mean polls that compare Bernie and Trump?

Because any polls that compare Bernie to Trump are talking about a GE match up, because Trump is not a Democratic nominee, yes?

Also, I guess you didn't mean this either?

Lets wait for the complete results before jumping to any conclusions. n/t

[efhmc]

9. We will lose if that misogynist is our candidate.

I will not campaign for him since it will go against ever bit of my moral fiber. No money, a vote.

[Thekaspervote]

11. Badly!!

[efhmc]

13. I cannot think of one Texas Dem I know who wants him as a candidate.

[Fresh_Start]

35. sadly my mother in law wants him as a candidate

and she's in texas though only a recent transplant

[Tiggeroshii]

37. 538: Bernie projected to win Texas Primary

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/california/

I don't know anybody who is going to vote for Biden, either. But surely they exist as polling is showing Biden doing pretty well in California.

[imavoter]

67. I certainly don't.

But I will vote for him if he wins the nomination, says this Texan.

[davs797]

87. I do

I am definitely voting Bernie in the TX primary. So is my husband and my brother and sister. I see a lot of Bernie signs here in Austin. I voted Hillary in 2016 because I’ve always admired her but my views are closer to Bernie or Elizabeth.

[JudyM]

137. Welcome to DU, davs797!

[YOHABLO]

88. And Trump is okay?

[Tiggeroshii]

15. ...they said, with no evidence in an entirely speculative and dismissive fashion.

[krissey]

19. There is a history.

[Thekaspervote]

29. See post 26

[Sloumeau]

14. If Bernie is the nominee, we are toast. :) nt

[Tiggeroshii]

18. Bernie is proving he can win by actually winning primaries and caucuses. Biden is showing that he

can't. By not.

[bearsfootball516]

33. Sanders won 1 caucus in an overwhelmingly white state that played to his strengths.

I wouldn’t be so cocky until we see what happens when the southern states start voting.

[Tiggeroshii]

36. He's already won a total of 22 primaries and caucuses (in 2016), and is projected to win TX and CA

I don't think I'm being cocky, I just think Biden's electability argument is inherently flawed.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/texas/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/california/

[thesquanderer]

62. Of note from 538's projections: Sanders and Biden now have about equal chance of winning SC

and Sanders is favored to win NH and Nevada. This opens up the possibility that Biden could go into Super Tuesday having not won a single primary or caucus. And Sanders could go into Super Tuesday very strong, if he basically ties in Iowa and wins the next three.

[Tiggeroshii]

115. Is Bernie projected to get more delegates in SC than Joe?

Joe is projected to win SC, but Bernie is projected with more delegates? Did I see that right?

[thesquanderer]

133. Here's the info on South Carolina...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/south-carolina/

In their simulations, Biden and Sanders both have a 41% chance of walking away from South Carolina with the most delegates. Biden could end up with anywhere between 3% and 46% of the vote in their models, Sanders is between 10% and 47%. In terms of delegates, these forecasts say that Biden could end up with anywhere between 0 and 24 delegates, average from their simulations = 18.1; Sanders could end up with anywhere between 0 and 36 delegates, average from their simulations = 19.3. (Presumably the zeroes represent any time they failed to reach the 15% viability threshold.)

[Thekaspervote]

56. No he is not! His vote total in IA which he did not win, went from 40+ in 16 to 25+ in 2020

Link to tweet

?s=21

[Tiggeroshii]

58. Biden has run for President 3 times. This is the first time he made it to Iowa before dropping out

He came in 4th.

[ehrnst]

100. How many times has Bernie run for office and lost?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_history_of_Bernie_Sanders

[Tiggeroshii]

111. He's proven better at the president thing than Biden, though.

He won 22 primaries and caucuses in his first try at president. Biden can barely get through Iowa after 3.

[ehrnst]

114. Gonna try to slide right by that one.....

But I'll play.

How many endorsements have each gotten from Senate colleagues again for POTUS, since we're talking stats from previous primaries...

[Tiggeroshii]

116. You lost me again.

Show me another gif of the guy riding his bicycle backwards.

[ehrnst]

118. Yeah, I thought that would be a sore spot.

[TwilightZone]

104. He hasn't won a caucus or primary yet.

Buttigieg is still ahead in Iowa, and the counting isn't complete yet.

Perhaps you can explain which primary Sanders has won since there haven't been any yet.

To preempt your predictable response, 2016 is irrelevant to the present cycle.

[ehrnst]

107. Actually...compared to others in the race...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_history_of_Bernie_Sanders

[Locrian]

109. Hey, at least he (Biden) did better than last time ....

After finishing in fifth place in the Iowa Caucus on January 3, 2008, garnering only one percent of the total vote

[Horizens]

52. And ...

so are all of our down ballot candidates

[blm]

16. Biden and Buttegieg camps assured that last fall. They must be so proud of

their 3month long targetWarren-leaveSandersalone strategy.

[ChubbyStar]

28. To quote a Biden supporter and DONOR

“If he came in fourth, yeah, that could hurt,” said Bill Freeman, a Biden donor from Nashville, Tennessee, who added that he hadn’t even considered such a possibility heading into Monday’s caucuses. “That’s a bad night, no matter how you spin it.”

https://apnews.com/8a6ea236b5abcb43b40f79cfbf3f8c20


Doesn't sound like Bill thought Joe would be so far behind.

[Locrian]

46. it's obvious even the establishment thinks he's not "it"

The silence and outright diss from Obama, Kerry, and HRC are telling...

[ChubbyStar]

50. Yes when even the "popular kids" are now hiding from you

It sucks, and it is telling.

[Sloumeau]

75. First of all, from the very beginning, all of the other candidates were...

attacking Biden. Second of all, Warren didn't sink until she came out with numbers for M4A and people said that the numbers did not make sense. Right after that, Warren people started jumping to Pete Buttigieg. It was Warren who came out with those numbers, and it was Warren supporters who left Warren for Pete. It wasn't anything Biden did.

[blm]

86. Nope. They attacked her as dishonest. That she is connng people.

And they did it for three months.

Her M4A numbers added up, but, media repeated the attacks Biden and Buttegieg were making on those numbers. They were not held to any standard or similar demands for numbers. Their criticisms were mocking political spins.

Pundits were repeating Biden and Buttegieg’s attacks on Warren’s plan not Krugman’s thoughtful, proWarren analysis.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/opinion/did-warren-pass-the-medicare-test-i-think-so.html

[Sloumeau]

108. The main attacks that I saw on Warren, other than at the debates, were from people writing articles

about her numbers for M4A. Biden and Buttigieg did not have to say a word after her numbers came out. The number crunchers did the work, and it was Warren's own supporters who left her for Mayor Pete. If the problem was that Warren was being attacked unfairly by Biden and Buttigieg, whey did Warren's own supporters believe these attacks?

[blm]

113. You weren't paying attention as much as you think.

They attacked her credibility before and after her plan was released.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/16/us/politics/joe-biden-elizabeth-warren.html

And because both camps cynically assumed Sanders’ health would stop him, they laid off Sanders for the 3 months they focused attacks on Warren.

If Sanders becomes the nominee it is because of Biden and Buttegieg camps and their disgusting behavior towards Warren last fall.

[Indykatie]

55. What Utter Bullshit - Until We Get to SC This is a Foolish Assesment

The only value I see in the IA caucus is to give the media weeks to churn our crap like this.

[Thekaspervote]

64. Indeed..also notice even 538 has not addressed the issue of sanders dismal polling with AA

[totodeinhere]

119. There are some indications that AA support for Biden is slipping in South Carolina.

Steyer might be eating away at some of Joe's support. Of course we shall see soon enough.

[Aaron Pereira]

66. I've read many opinions stating out loud that Sanders can't win.

Not won't but can't.

We should be getting used to the idea he can win and may very well be the nominee. Good time to remember that factual criticism of Sanders is fine but baseless smears and personal attacks against him may only help serve Trump's chances in November.

[Tiggeroshii]

69. +10,000

[Thekaspervote]

79. It doesn't change the facts that the gop is rigging our primary. Sanders the nominee we will lose

The GE And lose big time.

[highplainsdem]

73. Most depressing thing I've read all day. If Sanders is our nominee, the GOP will take him

apart, using his own words.

[Thekaspervote]

81. And there are mountains of material the gop is amassing to use against him

He won’t know what hit him

[YOHABLO]

91. They are going to take apart any Democratic nominee.

[highplainsdem]

103. Not the way they're going to be able to take Sanders apart.

They've been praying he'll be our nominee.

[YOHABLO]

106. Oh do tell.

[highplainsdem]

120. You'll see, if we're unfortunate enough to get stuck with Sanders as the nominee.

The GOP won't waste much time or money going after him unless he IS the nominee, since they want him to win the nomination.

[YOHABLO]

124. Well the moderate Dems will be doing the job for them.

The game has just started. One messed up caucus and the sky is falling for moderate Democrats.

[highplainsdem]

127. Given Sanders' attacks on his rivals, why should they let him continue to get away with as

little vetting as he's had so far?

[YOHABLO]

129. Get away with what? We already know where Sander's warts are.

So have at it.

[highplainsdem]

130. Most Democrats don't, let alone the wider electorate.

[YOHABLO]

131. Well, yeah you got me there. Most of the electorate are ignorant.

[Autumn]

74. Third place behind "nobody"? That's brutal.

[chillfactor]

78. not going to happen

except in your dreams. For myself, I would support any of the other candidates except BS.

[redstateblues]

117. Anecdotally, I have a number of independent friends, my spouse included, that won't vote for Bernie

In the General. They won’t vote for Trump-but maybe third party. It’s very depressing

[Joinfortmill]

112. Where have I heard that before?

[AverageJoe]

126. Bernie for America!!

Go, Bernie, go!!!

[Firestorm49]

132. He won't win.

[OneMoreCupOfCoffee]

134. I don't think Nate Silver's model takes into account just how..shall we say "polarizing"

figure Sanders is among long-time Democratic loyalists (especially those with long memories).

The fatal flaw of Silver's model is that it treats Sanders as is he is a conventional Democratic candidate, when nothing could be further from the truth.

[Wabbajack_]

135. Bernie's advantage

To my shock my brother who has never voted came to me all hyped up on Bernie!!

He had never heard of Mayor Pete.

Millions of Americans don't follow politics closely or at all and Sanders can reach them.

[bluewater]

136. A week agao, all the detractors LOVED 538 when Joe was ahead in their model. lol

Human nature.

Gotta love it.