538 seems bullish on Bernie's chances for Super Tuesday and other early voting states.

[HerbChestnut]

[bluewater]

1. How can this be? Doesn't 538 know Joe is leading in all the polls?

Isn't that what we are constantly told by the polls and RCP POLLS and even 538's own Poll tracker?

Have they all been lying to us?



yeah...




Seriously, Biden's performance in Iowa must have been earth-shakingly bad in 538's estimation.

[Tiggeroshii]

2. Starting to think Biden might not even win SC at this point.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

9. .

[CentralMass]

3. I like it

[Hassin Bin Sober]

12. .

[Thekaspervote]

4. 538 is parroting the betting markets almost identically. Other polling firms are not

[Tiggeroshii]

5. 538 is not a polling firm

They make projections based on calculations based on some polling, but mostly trends. Polls show Bernie behind still in most of those states he is projected to win, but the anticipation of how the news cycle will react, how similar states voted and so on is how they make projections. Polls are just a small part of it.

[bluewater]

6. "538 is parroting the betting markets almost identically."

So now you don't trust 538's expertise?

Ok...

[pfeiffer]

13. 538 was wrong re: Bernie will win IA

[bluewater]

14. Has anyone actually won Iowa yet?

lol

[Voltaire2]

23. Actually they were accurate.

As far as the initial vote counts. But Iowa is complicated- multi stage revotes.

[OrlandoDem2]

7. Someone asked elsewhere and I can't find it. How does Bernie win NH, MN, OH, PA

and AZ in the general?

He will lose some Clinton/blue 2016 states. How does he overcome that?

[Bumperstickers]

10. 2 days ago no one had him close to winning a Southern state

Now hes predicted to sweep by sone bigtime firms. Things change in minutes once the momentum starts.

[Still In Wisconsin]

15. There's no way Sanders wins Wisconsin.

Sure, he would get like 99.6 % of the vote in Madison, but suburbanites and independents are terrified of him. Rural voters here think he's Karl Marx. And yes, one has to win at least some of those voters to win a statewide election here.

In my opinion if Sanders is the nominee. Trump gets somewhere around 350 electoral votes. Yes, he will lose some states Clinton won.

[snot]

17. Milwaukee was a Socialist town within memorable history,

which is why they had by far the best infrastructure, public school, and park systems of any U.S. city I've lived in or visited.

It's been a few decades, but I'm not sure all memories of that past have been obliterated.

One can't help wondering how things might be if the party united behind Bernie and helped to promote his programs.

[Still In Wisconsin]

20. I grew up in Milwaukee. My dad and brother are still there.

I think most of the tenets of Democratic Socialism are excellent, maybe all of them. But Milwaukee is nowhere near being a socialist town now. It's a decaying rust belt city with a reliably Democratic base among the city's residents of color. But it's also got a whole lot of white working-class people who voted for Obama, then Trump. If Sanders is the nominee they will vote for Trump again. If it's someone else some of them might come back.

[OrlandoDem2]

22. Do what's the legitimate path to 270 EC votes for Bernie?

[msongs]

8. how many senate and house seats will we lose if bernie is nominee? nt

[Still In Wisconsin]

16. I don't know the number but I would guess the house would go back to the Republicans and

they would keep the Senate. Then all hell breaks loose until 2022.

[zentrum]

11. Fantastic. Hope so.

[TexasTowelie]

18. Bookmarking.

Bernie isn't going to win Texas.

[BlueIdaho]

19. 538 doesn't have the best record for calling winners and losers...

Their final call for Iowa was for a Biden win.

[jcmaine72]

21. I like it!

[octoberlib]

24. Silver said he's basing this off of Iowa performances.

Things can change fast at this point.Sanders won Iowa in 2016 as I recall.