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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 02:14 AM

 

FiveThirtyEight reports: Sanders passes Biden

538 is now saying Sanders chance of winning enough delegates for the nomination is now up to 37%, up from 31% before Iowa. Biden’s dismal Iowa showing drops Biden’s chances to 21%, down from 43% previously.

Details:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-post-iowa-primary-forecast-is-up-and-bidens-chances-are-down/

Go BERNIE!



“ The model shows former Vice President Joe Biden’s chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates being halved — from 43 percent before Iowa to 21 percent now.

Who gains from Biden’s decline? Well, a little bit of everyone. The model thinks Iowa was more good news than bad news for Sen. Bernie Sanders, although it was a somewhat close call. His chances have advanced to 37 percent, from 31 percent before Iowa, making him the most likely person to achieve that majority.”
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Arrow 16 replies Author Time Post
Reply FiveThirtyEight reports: Sanders passes Biden (Original post)
James48 Feb 2020 OP
melman Feb 2020 #1
musicblind Feb 2020 #2
squirecam Feb 2020 #3
HubertHeaver Feb 2020 #7
Scurrilous Feb 2020 #16
msongs Feb 2020 #4
trueblue2007 Feb 2020 #12
HubertHeaver Feb 2020 #5
squirecam Feb 2020 #6
pnwmom Feb 2020 #8
Scurrilous Feb 2020 #13
jcmaine72 Feb 2020 #9
ismnotwasm Feb 2020 #10
Scurrilous Feb 2020 #15
emmaverybo Feb 2020 #11
Scurrilous Feb 2020 #14

Response to James48 (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 02:18 AM

1. Wow

 

Big news. 43 to 21!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to James48 (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 02:21 AM

2. Not the news I'd like to hear for my candidate

 

but not exactly crazy either.

Iowa has always mattered.

I don't think that means Biden has no chance, though.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to James48 (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 02:22 AM

3. I think we should disregard all apps, needles and forecast models

 

Let’s have votes. Count them. Then declare a winner.

Iowa has been a total crap fest. Including the pundits.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to squirecam (Reply #3)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 02:54 AM

7. especially the pundits

 

They were yammering on and on with no idea what they were talking about. They needed to have a string quartet standing by or, maybe an old Jackie Gleason episode or two, or three.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HubertHeaver (Reply #7)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 07:05 AM

16. ...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to James48 (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 02:39 AM

4. 75% of voter rejected bernie so he's now the favorite lol nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to msongs (Reply #4)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:48 AM

12. HE IS NOT THE FAVORITE

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to James48 (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 02:49 AM

5. 538 is to be taken with a large grain of salt

 

check that--maybe a truckload
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HubertHeaver (Reply #5)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 02:50 AM

6. You can add the needle too at this point

 

Nt
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to James48 (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 03:07 AM

8. So, on the basis of a single non-representative caucus in a state with 3.5% black voters,

 

where the caucus itself appears to have been horribly mismanaged,
we're supposed to believe anyone's prediction of the eventual nominee?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #8)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:50 AM

13. In which he fell behind by a handful of delegates.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to James48 (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 03:12 AM

9. I'm not usually one to get down and boogie before the DJ arrives, but...

 

I can dig it!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to James48 (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 03:13 AM

10. ...

 

But the big winner is … nobody. The chance of there being no delegate majority has increased substantially, to 27 percent from 17 percent before Iowa. For reasons we’ve explained previously, the no-majority scenario isn’t quite the same thing as a contested convention, but the two concepts are closely related.

In running the model, we’re relying on Iowa results as currently reported (as of 5:15 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday afternoon) plus estimates from our friends at The Upshot on the probability that each candidate eventually wins the various vote measures that Iowa tracks. The Upshot now gives Buttigieg about a 98 percent chance of winning the most state delegate equivalents (SDEs) — the measure that the media has traditionally used to declare Iowa winners (and the only measure that Iowa has reported before this year), although it creates a bias toward candidates who perform well in rural areas.

Meanwhile, The Upshot gives Sanders a greater than 99 percent chance to win the first alignment vote — the candidate that voters initially lined up with when they entered their caucus sites. They regard the final alignment popular vote — the candidate that voters wound up with after supporters of nonviable candidates were allowed to realign — as a tossup between Buttigieg and Sanders.

As I explained on Wednesday, we hadn’t totally thought through how to handle the case where different candidates won by different metrics in Iowa. We were slightly surprised, however, at how much emphasis the media put on SDEs as opposed to the popular vote metrics. Since post-primary bounces are largely the result of media coverage, we decided that our formula for predicting bounces should reflect that.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to ismnotwasm (Reply #10)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:56 AM

15. I miss smoked filled rooms.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to James48 (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 03:29 AM

11. A model based on very little info that would figure in several relevant factors. A model

 

which outsizes Iowa’s influence on the whole shebang. Not polls even, a model. It is an Iowa-centered model. It must presume that Iowa results set off cascading events, a notion for which
we have no absolute proof. It must also ignore Sander’s lack of AA support and assume that because of Iowa that no longer matters. How would anyone know yet? Because of Iowa are CBC
members going to endorse Sanders en masse. Not so fast!

Suddenly because of Iowa Bernie has grown likable across the political spectrum, with diverse populations previously immune to his charms?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to James48 (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:53 AM

14. Modern entrail divining.

 

Any port in a storm!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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