oh for F'ks sake

[lapfog_1]

Kornacki is going on about "if 600 people showed up at blah blah" then Bernie might pass Pete in terms of State Delegate Equivalents...

As if this means anything. It's f'ing Iowa... a white rural red state. And it's a tie for first. It's NOT like if there was a 1 vote difference then ONE of the top two would take an oath of office and be elected to something... this is only "bragging rights".

This is why I hate the media... they want a Horse Race... and will do anything to make it happen.

[Sherman A1]

1. You are absolutely correct

It is the horse race narrative and I would really urge everyone to turn off the tv.

[True Blue American]

2. I quit watching hysterical

Steve long ago.

[unc70]

3. A bit more than bragging rights

And Kornacki was on the right track in his analysis. Shortly after his discussion, some of votes he expected were reported and Sanders closed the gap to 3 SDEs. Your frustration is showing.

[lapfog_1]

4. a bit more than bragging rigths...

like what, pray tell.

More delegates to the national convention? LOL

I'm not frustrated at anything... if Joe should not be selected, I have other choices. Even Pete would be OK with me.

[unc70]

5. Win both IA and NH, win nomination

Every candidate who has won both Iowa and New Hampshire has gone on to win their party's nomination. It is a small sample (only 6), but it is something.

[lapfog_1]

7. That and $3.50 gets you a Starbucks.

Seriously, these sorts of predictive rules are silly. There is nowhere near enough data to conclude some sort of conclusion based on winning a few contests or other every 4 years for the last 60 years or less.

I bet you could find a high correlation between winning the middle three state contests and selection as party nominee.

Every presidential race is different... this year we haven't had any single candidate poll nationally over 30 percent (except Joe at right after he announced).

Iowa is not very diverse, caucus favors people with time to spend... and more passion.

NH is also not very diverse.

This time around, let's wait until after Super Tuesday before declaring even a front runner for the nomination.

[unc70]

17. I agree with you for the most part

These kinds of predictive rules are very weak. Winning Super Tuesday is a much stronger indicator.

[paleotn]

22. Sorry...but....

No offense....but.....I'm picking myself up off the floor from laughing.... The Iowa caucus is about as good a predictor of the Dem primaries in general as me going to my local Shaw's grocery store in the ultra white, rural state of Vermont and polling a couple of people in the produce aisle, then calling it good. My old grad school stats professor would have flunked my ass just on principle.

[unc70]

28. I was taught how to lie with statistics

Most of my graduate statistics courses would agree with you. My degree was in quantitative psychology and much of my peer reviewed publications are in areas like data validation, human research, and analyzing messy types of human data.

Now what did that groundhog predict?

[LanternWaste]

31. The groundhog said, "It is a small sample (only 6), but it is something..."

Allegations of education don not make simplistic prophecies predicated on logical fallacies any more compelling.

[Scurrilous]

41. McGovern and Clinton didn't need first two states.

And why is 1 and 2 so important. It used to move around. Does the magic move with it. I can remember Florida being 2nd. George Wallace won ...then got shot.


Also the reason past winners did good was because other candidates dropped out after Iowa and they picked up their votes. No one has dropped out and the top 4 seem pretty solid and in good shape to continue on.

'Further, candidates who do poorly in the Iowa caucus are likely to drop out in the following days.'

[CentralMass]

29. Somehow I think you would have found it to be huge deal if Joe Biden had won it.

Every win in the primary is critical. Since it's modern form in 1972 7 out if 10 winners of the Iowa caucus have gone on to win the nomination.

[ahoysrcsm]

32. If DU is any indication...

Sanders is only at 10% here. Look to Warren or Biden winning the Democratic primary.

[CentralMass]

33. It is not IMO an indication. Many Sanders supporters have been purged off this site or don't

dare post anything contrary for fear of having it alerted on.

[ahoysrcsm]

40. Or, he just doesn't have majority support.

I guess some Sanders supporters like to hide being Undecided and all. Or they just don't support him all that much, or enough to attach his name to theirs.

I truly wish Sanders had run in 2008...

[PJMcK]

6. Kornacki used to be a smart young reporter

Then he went home at night to watch reruns of his reports on MSNBC. While he watched, he mixed up huge bottles of kool-aid to drink.

Now, he goes on TV and makes an ass of himself.

What a waste of talent.

[KPN]

8. Ditto ... and especially Kornacki's analyschtik.

He is irritating.

[pansypoo53219]

9. the MEdia wants to control the whole game.THEY wanted hillary vs THEIR golden

squirrel(ratings pig). they ignore bernie for the most part even tho iowa was a tie in 2016.
tore hillary down just like it would have been nonstop ukraine til11/2020. they still want the moron FOR THEMSELVES.

[Hortensis]

14. Many studies show that overall the media solidly promoted

TRUMP/Republicans, strongly sabotaged Hillary/Democrats, and both promoted and ignored Sanders depending on what they wanted at the moment, whether to create a primary horse race to sell papers or to use him to elect Republicans.

You can find studies and reports on biases and behaviors of the 2016 media on line. Sounds like you don't even know both the AP and NYT, along MSNBC and CNN, sabotaged us in 2016 and are doing it again. And they're once again using Sanders as a tool.

In the unlikely event Sanders were to become our nominee (Trump's wet dream), you'd get more than a little taste of the character assassination they committed on Hillary. The Repubs and Russia would do everything they could to keep him and Democrats running for other offices from being elected. In 2016, I read that Judicial Watch alone had 5 fake scandals all designed and ready for final tweaking and launching if Sanders were the nominee then. Guarantee right now many arms of their swiftboating industry are focusing hard on their Sanders projects.

And of course, you'll have heard Russia is in it too, right? Sanders was greatly promoted and used, to the best of our knowledge without his active consent, as a Russian asset to elect Trump? He knew it and kept it secret, which is why I said active consent.

In order to refuse to be similarly used, we have to know the truth, whatever it is.

[pansypoo53219]

39. i just followed 2016 from a distance. how artists look at art. easy to see.russia helped, but i

blame teevee gnews. i see the same thing happening if biden is nominated. they can use ukraine. mayor pete is too damn smart & squeaky clean for the'gnewz.

[gordianot]

10. Eventually Trump crowds are going to hurt reporters.

It is the ultimate consequence of both sideism horse race reporting. Kornacki is a key proponent of pushing “tribalism”.

[rpannier]

11. Gonna agree with you on this one

Two days ago it would have been conversation
People have mostly moved on to other states
But they need something to fan the flames
It's why I avoid 24-hour news

[NJCher]

12. So now we're down to

They’re white and rural, so they don’t count.

Hey, whatever it takes to get you through the night.

People have been telling you this was coming but it fell upon deaf ears. Now that a Sanders victory is taking shape, the mental leapfrogging is dazzling.

[NJCher]

13. I would also add that

From the perspective of a reporter, kornacki discovered something interesting that has been little discussed, and that is the satellite caucuses and their potential to change the picture. If you’re a reporter and find something like this, it’s gold. You go with it. Stop trying to attribute a media motive to the situation when it’s most likely the desire to do his job in a particularly distinctive, aggressive way.

[Fiendish Thingy]

15. It's the media frenzy that makes Iowa so strategically important

Right or wrong, The results of the four contests before Super Tuesday can drive a media narrative so powerful that it can build or dissipate a candidate’s momentum (and fundraising) and potentially shift the race.

[bucolic_frolic]

16. Kornacki needs sedatives

I find his nerd daddy schtick in cord jeans, preppy shoes, rolled-up shirtsleeves, pens in pocket very very irritating. That he can tease a few votes into ten minutes of edge-of-your-seat frantic verbage is double-down obnoxious.

[Nanjeanne]

18. Kornacki is a joke but what's interesting is it's the minority voters in satellite caucuses

like the Muslim and Latino satellites that are putting Sanders over the top.

[paleotn]

21. Sorry, but statistically it's meaningless.

Muslim and Latino voters who had a couple hours to kill during the week while everyone else was at work, or at LIFE, to play some half ass game of red rover, where actual counting and tabulating is difficult task. Please.

[Nanjeanne]

23. Statistically meaningless to you. Warms my heart - to me.

This is the America i love.

Link to tweet

[paleotn]

24. Fantastic! I love that too....but....

realist here.

[Nanjeanne]

25. Ok. Realism is good I still get excited and enthusiastic and my reality takes that into account.

[HarlanPepper]

38. It's also patently false.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

19. 600 is a lot for Iowa

[paleotn]

20. Precisely...

Iowa is a ridiculously biased, grossly non-random sample of the Democratic population of IOWA! Much less anything else. It's useless, crazy shit to think this disaster of a 5th grade recess game means anything. But, this is the same media who marveled at the ....Oooooo! Shiny!....of *'s SOTU address. Forgetting it was chock full of bald face lies and all the other bullshit this jackass has pulled prior, including advocating violence against the same media types enamored by his Tuesday night, bullshit-o-thon. I'm not sure whether to cry for the state of our government or journalism in the 21'st century. Particularly as someone old enough to remember the giants. Those we trusted to tell the truth and cut through the bullshit. Those who actually took that trust seriously. Seems many today are as much cynical careerists pigs as the current crop of Republican Senators.

[rzemanfl]

26. Not a horse race, just horse shit. n/t

[Laelth]

27. It's a slow news cycle.

Yes, the media can be silly when they have little to report, but that's not really worth getting upset--not for me, in any event.

Cheers!

-Laelth

[jayschool2013]

30. We are a swing state

So while the vote here appears to be too close to make a difference at the national convention, it's important to note which candidates fan the biggest flames of enthusiasm and predict how that might work in November against Caligula II.

If Pete (or Bernie or Liz) excites Iowans enough to turn out the blue vote, that's six potential electoral votes for Dems, possibly 3 or even 4 House seats, and possibly a Democrat replacing Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Dipshit) in the Senate.

We need every state we can get in November, and we can already predict how more diverse states like California and New York will go, so don't discount votes in our predominately white, agricultural state.

[gibraltar72]

34. Kornacki is unwatchable.

[MontanaMama]

36. Kornwacky makes it almost impossible

to enjoy MSNBC election coverage. His shtick is so contrived....his tie askew, same corduroy pants and button down shirt which is his uniform...gesticulating wildly with sketchy made up drama. I can’t believe his numbers are good enough to keep him on.

[HarlanPepper]

37. He's totally in the tank for Bernie. Has been for years.

[hlthe2b]

42. Kornacki dissecting a flea to try to make himself "important"

Iowa results are always going to be suspect. They will help Buttigieg and Bernie somewhat since it is hard to argue their overall wins (albeit I'd never bet on which one actually won), but beyond that, the focus needs to be on changing their entire system from top to bottom and moving forward.


Iowa is in the rearview mirror and given the debacle and justified "forever" questions of its validity, should have no emphasis moving forward. What DNC and state Dems need to learn is to anticipate Trump and his ilk attempts to F..k with the primaries moving forward. It pains the hell out of me that we have open primaries in several states moving forward.