Onething I learned this week is 538 is a joke.

[William769]

Going back to see what they were selling before Iowa, shows how bad they are at their jobs.

[Legends303]

1. I agree

They got 2016 wrong don’t know how anyone takes them seriously after that except to confirm their own bias.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. They didn't get 2016 wrong- they gave Trump the highest odds of winning of any predictors

They have the best overall record, with a few notable exceptions. It will interesting to compare 538’s predictions for the general with Rachel Bitecofer’s paradigm shifting new model.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. How is it humanly possible for anyone to claim 538 got 2016 wrong?

That is breathtaking stupidity. I expect that from simpleton right wing males, not here.

538 not only gave Trump the highest odds but Nate Silver broke down the mathematics numerous times, that Hillary did not own nearly the electoral college strength of Obama in 2012, despite similar leads in the national margin. Silver emphasized that if there was a small polling error in the key swing states then it would likely attach to all of those swing states, potentially shifting them narrowly to Trump.

Nate Silver had the greatest wisdom toward 2016, that Hillary had a fragile lead but was only 62-73% likely to prevail, while others like Sam Wang were insisting Hillary at 99.9%.

Was 538 supposed to assert Trump was the favorite? That's what I always want to ask the geniuses who knock that site based on 2016. 538 is not a pollster or predictor. They are a compiler. They take the available polls and apply them to an ultra sophisticated multifaceted formula that spits out a win percentage estimate at a given point in time.

No kidding the high number will not always align with the actual winner. That's why there are percentages in the first place. As I emphasized here in late 2016, Hillary's late lead was basically the equivalent of a 4.5 point favorite in a football game. Wow, how overwhelming. That type of favorite loses all the time. If we had political elections every weekend there would be 70% candidates losing all the time.

But since the presidency happens only once every 4 years we've got the breathtakingly stupid types somehow believing that anything 55% or above is a lock certainty.

[unblock]

2. once a weather report said 5" of snow and i got 8", so all weather reports are completely useless!

[Thekaspervote]

4. Agree!! This is a great read..Silver..making it up as he goes along

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/30/nate-silver-making-he-goes

[HeartlandProgressive]

5. People's opinion of 538 too often rise and fall with their candidates' ratings

If they are doing well according to 538, 538 is the gospel truth.

If not, not so much.

[HarlanPepper]

8. Yes, that's why Sanders supporters love Nate right now

[greatauntoftriplets]

6. I like Harry Enten on CNN.

[highplainsdem]

7. Their forecast flip to Sanders was ridiculous.

[Scurrilous]

10. It was insane.

He had Bernie making up 20 or more points in Alabama, Tennessee, and Oklahoma! He's in 5th place in OK. Why would he pass Buttigieg?

He had Bernie coming from 3rd to pass Biden and 1st place Warren in Massachusetts.

And coming back from -12 and 4th place to overtake Warren, Klobuchar, and Biden in Minnesota.