Wow! Predictit now has Bernie with best odds in every state except SC!

[DanTex]

Even Delaware. He's even slightly ahead in Iowa, I guess the markets think there's a decent chance the last satellite district puts Bernie ahead in SDEs.
https://www.predictit.org/

[Happyhippychick]

1. I think the bigger story is that Bloomberg is second

[booley]

34. And Biden is a strong fourth!!

People following the media and how it covers Sanders will probably see the joke there.

Personally I can't even tell if you are being sarcastic right now.

[Happyhippychick]

42. I'm not being sarcastic. I think it's amazing people are betting

This way

[brush]

58. Especially since we know a socialist will not win Fla and many other southern states.

Amazing how much clearly wrong info is posted here.

[NoMoreRepugs]

2. Guess there's no need to continue the primaries.

[LanternWaste]

3. A new variation on last month's failed 'suRgE!!!' bumper-stickers, eh?

Good luck with the re-branding campaign!

[DanTex]

4. Did you, umm, happen to catch the results of the Iowa Caucus that took place Monday?

[OhZone]

5. Yeah, this.

Maybe some delusional Trumper money is diving this.

So - how to you bet? I could use some easy money.

Ha

[LanternWaste]

6. IA was Bernie's to walk away with. He dropped the ball. Dramatically.

For your next trick, you'll pretend Sirota is more righteous than Rueben again-- tens of biases across the country rely on you doing so!!!!!

[Tiggeroshii]

7. You realize Iowa was made for Biden as much as for Bernie right?

Biden is an 8 year vice president under the most popular president in recent history, and he made forth place under a socialist, small time mayor and consumer advocate. There is a reason people are questioning his viability in any other contest.

[HerbChestnut]

8. There was a DU poll on who people thought would win Iowa.

Biden had something like 85% of that vote.

[lunasun]

44. +1

[R B Garr]

16. Yes, the "centrist" beat Bernie, crushing

the surge. Bernie has campaigned for 5 years and lost support.

[DanTex]

24. Which centrist?

The one who got less votes? Who claimed victory before they counted the Bernie-heavy working class latino districts that for some reason were held from the tally until the very end?

[R B Garr]

27. It's too late. We saw his surge go down the tubes.

Now he’s just into the typical hype game. His support has gone down and that’s after 5 years of campaigning.

[ChubbyStar]

21. Ah shit Iowa is so yesterday

Iowa is fat
I hate Iowa
My mother hates Iowa
Iowa is a 5, I can get better
Who needs Iowa

[ehrnst]

71. Look OVER THERE!!!!...anything to distract from what happened

today.

Chin up, champ!

[booley]

36. Sanders continues to fall to first place

[helpisontheway]

9. Praying that Bloomberg saves us from absolute disaster. Nt

[Doremus]

25. Praying for a man who supported a repuke against Elizabeth Warren in 2012?

Who as recently as 2017 was still supporting republicans?

Might want to rethink who you pray for, just saying.

[booley]

37. sure A guy who switched to Republican when it helped his power will "Save us"

Bloom berg was a Democrat.. until being a Republican helped him personally.

And then became independent, again for his own personal benefit.

But sure, tell me how it's a problem that Sanders isn't a Democrat.

[Blue_Tires]

10. I'll happily speak for Virginia when I say bull-fuckin'-shit

unless he has some super-secret strategy I don't know about...

[brooklynite]

11. I rank this news up there with the stories about how he was ahead in all 50 States in 2016...

...based on ISIDEWITH online polls.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1251650529

[DanTex]

13. Prediction markets and online polls are not remotely comparable.

Of all people, a pro-free-market moderate should understand that.

Online polls can and are gamed, whereas gaming markets costs money, and suggesting that Bernie followers are dumping money into artificially manipulating betting odds is a conspiracy theory no better than the ones going around about how the DNC intentionally screwed up the Iowa Caucuses because they saw Bernie was winning.

Prediction markets compute odds of events, as best judged by people willing to risk money. Like other markets, they are subject to bubbles and panics and all that, but comparing them to clickbait online polls is absurd.

[brooklynite]

18. They are both comparably meaningless

Prediction markets are accurate based on the people in the pool. I'm guessing the number of people who want to make a killing on Rhode Island or South Dakota is shockingly small...

[DanTex]

22. The one predictable thing is that people who don't like the results say they are meaningless.

You're right that the thin markets like South Dakota are going to be less reliable than, say, the overall nomination contract. And, yeah, the amount of money that people can make is in the thousands, not the millions. But there's a reason that even in SD, they show Bernie and not Marianne Williamson winning. Because otherwise, someone would quickly step in to snatch the free few thousand dollars.

As far as people participating in it, it doesn't matter what their political biases are, just their rationality. And the less rational people will go broke. This makes it different than, say, a Jennifer Rubin article, where she has political reasons for touting Biden, or even worse, a Third Way article, where the authors are actually getting paid to tout centrists.

Pretty sure if Rubin or Third Way were participating in betting markets, their bets wouldn't be nearly as bullish on centrists as their editorials are.

[brooklynite]

26. One thing I've learned is not to let my personal bias cloud my political judgement...

...but neither do I attempt to support my biases with whatever compatible data is handy, regardless of how tentative it is.

[DanTex]

30. Seems you're doing exactly that in this case.

Otherwise you wouldn't be comparing online polls and prediction markets. You know as well as I do that those are nothing alike in terms of the reliability of the numbers that come out of them. I doubt that if Bernie wasn't involved you'd make that comparison.

Your political bias leads you to want Bernie to do poorly, and so when data comes out against your bias, you dismiss it with a preposterous comparison.

[TexasTowelie]

12. Betting markets are easily manipulated.

Remember that betting markets are determined by the amount of the bets rather than the number of voters. All it takes is a small group of people willing to throw away their money to create a narrative.

By the way, since I clicked the link it also shows that Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama are now in Biden's column. It's amazing what can change in a matter of a few hours.

[DanTex]

14. That Bernie people are manipulating the markets is a baseless conspiracy theory,

no better than the theories going around twitter about how the DNC intentionally crashed the software because they saw Bernie doing well.

Yes, betting market prices change by the hour. That happens in real markets too. That's because as events unfold, and information is revealed, the odds change.

And it's surprising that, of all people, proponents of the pro-free-market candidates seem to least understand this.

[TexasTowelie]

15. Conspiracy theories abound.

I have plenty of patience to wait until Super Tuesday to obtain a much larger representative sample to see which candidate is in the lead. I suspect that the betting markets will look much different shortly afterwards.

[DanTex]

17. Patience is virtue.

For people who might want to know where the odds stand at the present moment, prediction markets are informative.

And, yeah, they will look much different after Super Tuesday. Just like they look much different now than they did a week ago. In fact, after Super Tuesday, looking at prediction markets will be a useful way to gauge how the results of those primaries impact the chances of each candidate taking home the nomination. Just like right now.

[TexasTowelie]

19. Yes,

let's consider the results of a non-diverse state holding a caucus which nobody has any confidence in the results be a guide on placing wagers. Is it a surprise that 19% of pathological gamblers have filed bankruptcy?

[DanTex]

23. Again, interesting come from a supporter of pro-free-market candidates.

You know, candidates that oppose regulation on those same unreliable markets and traders. It's a bit contradictory to say how useless markets are while at the same time warning that taxing transactions on those markets will grind down the whole economy.

But anyone who believes what you believe is welcome to place bets and profit off those predictions. I'm sure some are doing just that. Just they don't believe it strongly enough to move the lines.

[TexasTowelie]

28. Bologna. You have no clue as to what I believe about free markets or how they should be regulated.

I've never indicated on this site or anywhere else that I don't believe in regulating markets. There are plenty of regulations that I believe are important to protect workers, promote fair taxation, and provide for public safety, social justice, and economic justice.

You know what they say about people that assume things.

[DanTex]

32. Not what you believe, what the candidates you support believe.

Bernie's the one pushing the transaction tax on Wall Street. Biden's the one with a superPAC funded by people who made their fortunes trading on markets. Mayor Pete worked at McKinsey. You may not believe in prediction markets, but the big Wall Street donors funding the campaigns of the centrists candidates definitely do.

[TexasTowelie]

35. Look at my preference.

It says "Undecided". If I'm undecided, how the heck do you know who I support?

The only thing that I've decided is that I'm not voting for Bernie in the primary. I simply do not like him or the fact that he has criticized the Democratic Party repeatedly. I also think that Trump would easily defeat him if the general election is between the two of them.

[TexasTowelie]

20. And now the District of Columbia and Delaware are favoring Biden now.

Your OP isn't aging very well.

[R B Garr]

29. LOL, awesome posts, TT!

[DanTex]

33. Yes, and WA got dark red.

Odds change over time. In another day, more things will change. It's a snapshot. Not complicated.

[lapucelle]

39. There are all sorts of folks spreading ridiculous reddit garbage.

On Monday night, Robby Mook was being blamed for the mess up in Iowa.

[Progress_Dem]

31. Bernie! Bernie! Bernie!

[octoberlib]

38. No way Bernie wins NC. And it's way too early for them to predict anything.

[TwilightZone]

40. The same markets that had Warren at 50%+ a few months ago?

Sure, go with that.

[DanTex]

41. Yeah, she was way up before she tanked in the polls.

Things change, and odds change with them. Biden was up higher too before his Iowa showing.

[doc03]

43. If he gets the nomination Trump will

have biggest eltorial win in history.

[TexasTowelie]

45. It sure looks like Bernie's electability has plummeted.

He is at 52 on getting the nomination and at 28 for winning the general election. That means he dropped from 58.6% to 53.8% over a three week period.

Take solace though, all of that data was meaningless to begin with.

[DanTex]

46. LOL. Yes, market odds change over time. Now he's at 30/53!

And still the favorite!

[TexasTowelie]

47. It's only been an hour since the polls close.

As the narrative about Bernie's weaknesses as a candidate continue over Sunday and Monday we can expect that the Bernie bus will be stuck on the roadside with a flat on Super Tuesday.

[DanTex]

48. I guess we'll see! But congrats to Joe for winning his first primary. After 32 years, 3 presidential

campaigns, on the fourth contest...Joe wins SC!

[TexasTowelie]

49. Yes, and Biden has over 50% of the voters now.

Has Bernie been over 50% in any state in 2020? Has Bernie ever won an election in any southern state? (Oklahoma is not a southern state)

[DanTex]

50. Biden is a strong regional candidate. Enjoy the next three days!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

52. Is "regional" another term for "states that have a lot of black people"?

Because Bernie didn't do very well in SC with PoC. And Democrats can't win the GE without their votes.

[DanTex]

54. Nice try lol! Regional means "in a single region."

But do go on with your accusations...

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

56. So that "region" would be the entire South, I guess.

[DanTex]

57. Yes, Biden is the strongest candidate in the south. Elsewhere it's Bernie.

[redstateblues]

59. We've seen that shade thrown on the South before

and how it doesn't really count because you know it's the South

[DanTex]

60. Of course it counts! Who said it doesn't count?

[ehrnst]

61. Well, some are trying frantically to diminish its importance because

Bernie was bound to LOSE.

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=601308

[DanTex]

62. LOL. Not at alll. Big win for Joe! He got one!

[ehrnst]

63. Yeah, keep on trying, Hon.

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=600785

Try calling him 'establishment."

That'll put everyone in their place...

The desperation is apparent to everyone, tho.

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=601117

[DanTex]

64. "Hon"? What?

[ehrnst]

65. Short for "Honey," Hon.

Keep on trying to convince people that Bernie's loss doesn't get under your skin...

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=600773

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=600764

[DanTex]

66. "Honey"? What?

[ehrnst]

67. Fish ain't biting, Hon.

[ehrnst]

68. That a boy, Champ...

Chin up, even through the tears.

[TexasTowelie]

53. I said that I would enjoy the entire month of March.

Catch the Joementum!

[DanTex]

55. We will see!

[ehrnst]

69. Now that the brutal disappointment is behind you...

Better times ahead, I'm sure!

Chin up!!!

[DonaldsRump]

51. Am feeling the Burn....the Biden Burn! n/t

[ehrnst]

70. Magical thinking always works!!