Monmouth NH poll, Feb 3-5: Sanders 24%, Buttigieg 20%, Biden 17%, Warren 13%, Klobuchar 9%

[highplainsdem]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_nh_020620.pdf/

Among registered New Hampshire Democrats and unaffiliated voters who are likely to participate in the February 2020 Democratic primary, the race currently stands at 24% for Sanders, 20% forButtigieg, 17% for Biden, 13% for Warren, and 9% for Klobuchar. Others registering support includeTulsi Gabbard (4%), Andrew Yang (4%), and Tom Steyer (3%). Michael Bennet and Deval Patrick earn 1% or less. Another 5% of likely primary voters remain undecided and do not lean toward any candidate choice at this time.[Note: Mike Bloomberg will not appear on the New Hampshire ballot and is not included in this poll.]

-snip-

With the campaign still in flux, Monmouth examined the race under a number of different scenarios. Likely Democrats were asked how they would vote if the field was winnowed down. In a race restricted to the top five polling candidates, hypothetical support stands at 27% Sanders, 22% Buttigieg, 17% Biden, 13% Warren, and 13% Klobuchar. Take Klobuchar out of this picture and the race tightens to 28% Sanders, 28% Buttigieg, 19% Biden, and 16% Warren.

Monmouth analysts also ran a variety of likely voter models on the full list of candidates in addition to the benchmark results reported in this release. A model that increases the share of low propensity voters shows Sanders in front with 25%, Buttigieg at 19%, Biden at 16%, Warren at 12%,Klobuchar at 8%, Yang at 5%, and Gabbard and Steyer at 4% each. A model that gives more weight to traditional primary voters shows Sanders with 22%, Buttigieg at 21%, Biden at 18%, Warren at 15%, Klobuchar at 10%, Gabbard at 3%, and Steyer and Yang at 2% each.

Emphasis added.

The model that focuses on what are usually callled likely voters has the top 3 in a 4-point range, a statistical tie.

[krissey]

1. Warren needs something. Wouldn't it be fun if she became the Buttigieg of Iowa?

Come on Bailey, look pretty.

[brooklynite]

15. Buttigieg became the Buttigieg of Iowa by hard work and resonating with voters...

I don't doubt that Warren is working hard, but I think we'd be seeing results by now if Warren was catching fire.

[krissey]

21. Ya, maybe. NH vote is soft. It can go anywhere. I can play with thought.

It would be a blast. She can have Sanders vote and Buttigieg can stay up there. A race between Warren and Buttigieg. Ya, POC block. But, I am lightening up a bet and having some fun with this primary. We have all been so serious of late. Trump exhausts me.

[Peacetrain]

2. I can see that.. Biden people, do not let up for a heartbeat.. get out the vote

I do not see us winning NH.. never have.. but don't let the polls sink anyone into thinking that they have this. I have had three different people who know I am a Biden supporter come up shocked, just shocked he did not get at least 3rd or 2nd (Bernie and company have been working the lines for 5 years here, they did not do as well as I thought they would.. I am just gobsmacked by the whole thing).. so they did not go to caucus.. CRAP! but it is what it is.. learn from us.. keep pushing and checking in with people.. and if you do not see a Biden person walking your neighborhood.. for the love of GOD volunteer and get out there..lets try and get a 2nd in NH.. it would be awesome!!

[FloridaBlues]

36. I had to shut off tv can't handle all the negativity surrounding Biden

Perhaps people should wait until more primaries are conducted.
I just saw a Bloomberg ad with him and President Obama. Trying to go after AA.

[Peacetrain]

37. Oh my gosh, we saw that this morning.. sigh...

Bloomberg is just pounding states with commercials where other candidates are not at now.. its a tough row to hoe against all the financial power

[Progress_Dem]

3. Also

the latest Emerson tracking poll has Sanders at +10.

Sanders 31%
Buttigieg 21%
Biden 12%
Warren 11%

[highplainsdem]

4. It was +15 for Sanders just one day earlier. He lost 5 points in an averaged

tracking poll in just one day, meaning the last of the days averaged was a huge loss.

[Progress_Dem]

9. Yes, because Buttigieg

is getting a traditional bounce out of Iowa while Biden is fading. But yet, Sanders maintains the lead. In my opinion, Biden's campaign is about finished.

By the way, I find it sad that you are rooting so hard against Sanders. I hope you will be able to lay down your animosity if Sanders is the nominee and get to the real business of defeating Donald Trump!

[krissey]

14. The point is, what a day can do. NH votes are soft. Many undecided and have shifted since keeping

track. Whether five or ten loss for Sanders, seeing two numbers, that is a shift. In just a day. Who knows what tomorrow will bring. There are opportunities to be had.

[Progress_Dem]

19. I agree

And clearly Buttigieg is surging and Biden is fading.

I don't see how the Biden campaign can explain two straight fourth place finishes if Warren takes third in NH.

[krissey]

22. We will have to see the Biden shake out. I never felt he was as strong as his numbers stated.

Harris should not have gotten out.

[Scurrilous]

26. Finished. Snort. Biden is ahead in Nevada and in S. Carolina,

Biden is ahead in 10 of the Super Tuesday states. Twice as many as strong victory win Bernie. And Biden polled at 13% and 14% in several pre debate NH polls. Now I guess he's rising. Your opinion IMHO is not based on facts. Just wishful thinking. Sad.

[Progress_Dem]

27. I love the passion

But Biden isn't going to be the nominee. I respect Biden too and think he is a good man. He has done a lot for our country.

[Scurrilous]

33. ..

...

[NewsCenter28]

28. Progress_Dem, Bernie

is incapable of doing anything other than losing to Toad in a 49-state landslide, Jeremy Corbyn style. He will never be anything more than the fake democratic socialist senator from Vermont who elected Toad, not once, but twice. That said, I do agree with you that it does appear that he is running away with the Democratic party nomination sadly and tragically.

[Progress_Dem]

32. I disagree

Sanders will beat Trump and in my opinion, he is our best option at beating Trump in the general.

I also think some of the other candidates can beat Trump too, but Sanders brings the passion, movement, and commitment we need.

[Iliyah]

6. Emerson Poll . . .

kinda wrong with Mayor Pete.

[TexasTowelie]

11. Emerson polls have skewed towards Bernie throughout the entire season

leading up to the primaries. Bernie should win this primary by a large margin since it is in his backyard and New Hampshire and Vermont share media markets. Anything less than a 10% margin for Bernie in New Hampshire should be considered a lackluster performance.

[Progress_Dem]

12. Set those expectations high! n/t

[TexasTowelie]

16. I can only imagine the spin if Biden doesn't win South Carolina by at least 10%.

Iowa was supposed to be a major win for Bernie and it turned out to be a dud instead.

[Progress_Dem]

20. He got the most votes though. n/t

[krissey]

23. Texastowlie is correct. No spin is going to make it something it is not.

[TexasTowelie]

24. We don't really know if the reported results are accurate though.

I would also place much more confidence in the results of a primary than the results of a caucus.

[Scurrilous]

5. He got 60.14% of the vote in 2016. He's lost over half his support. And next door too.

He polled better at times before Iowa. At this rate he'll end up with more delegates from the caucus than from here.

[krissey]

8. Good.

[Progress_Dem]

10. That is because there are more candidates this year than 2016 n/t

[Scurrilous]

25. Yep.

And that's why he's currently polling at 4th in Minnesota, 5th in Oklahoma and Missouri, 3rd in Tenn. and Mass., 8th in Montana, and 0% in Wyoming.

Competition.

I bet he misses running as the anti-Hillary when he could tout his 43% finish as bestowing a mandate on him and his socialist ideals.

Now he's back down in the 20's with his base.

[Progress_Dem]

30. His support will rise as candidates drop out. n/t

[krissey]

31. Good points. I like your post. Makes me feel good.

[Scurrilous]

34. You're welcome.

There are people who are here one day and gone the next who do nothing but post fact free nonsense. It's like this place self corrects. LOL

[Drunken Irishman]

7. If Biden can get these numbers, he can claim some momentum.

[Garrett78]

29. But finishing behind Buttigieg could be pretty damaging.

[Scurrilous]

35. It's NH. Look down the road at other state polls. The bigger non all white states.

[Drunken Irishman]

38. It depends...

If it's essentially a one or two-point difference between the two, I don't know if it'll be all that damaging. Biden can claim 'comeback status' after everyone wrote him off and make a play for Nevada and SC, where Mayor Pete won't be as competitive.

But you're right that if Biden is a distant third, it's going to be very damaging.

[Garrett78]

39. If Biden finishes behind Buttigieg, he better hope Buttigieg wins New Hampshire.

Sanders winning NH and Buttigieg finishing ahead of Biden would be a double whammy. If Buttigieg wins NH, it would take wind out of the Sanders sail, and Biden could still win big in SC (depending, in part, on what happens in NV). If, on the other hand, Sanders wins NH and NV and Buttigieg finishes ahead of Biden in both, Biden's support will collapse to the point where SC is in play. And then he's effectively done.

[MoonlitKnight]

13. Margin of Error +-4.4%

So anything goes.

[highplainsdem]

18. Especially since the likely voter model they ran had the top 3 in a 4-point range.

[honest.abe]

17. Does not appear Sanders is a lock for NH.

Interesting.