Marcus Johnson & Joy Reid think if Biden loses black voters to anyone, it'll be Bloomberg

[highplainsdem]

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[underthematrix]

1. Yep. This is where black voters will go.

Bloomberg is their back up plan.

[highplainsdem]

3. They won't be going to Sanders, based on the polling. He gets a small fraction of black voters,

mostly younger ones.

[Peacetrain]

2. The thing I a hearing about Bloomberg is from friends and family in Minnesota

His commercials are on TV there.. and nothing from the others who are running in the other states right now.. They just do not have the money to spend. And they love his commercials.. So he is making an impression on them and once people get their minds made up it can be hard to get them to look at someone else

[Gothmog]

4. Bloomberg is a far stronger candidate compared to sanders

[Nanjeanne]

5. Now that's funny.

Won’t happen Joy. No matter how much you may want it m

[W_HAMILTON]

6. I don't think this matters much.

Because Bloomberg isn't really even contesting South Carolina, which -- under this theory -- means that Biden will overwhelmingly win the black vote and most likely the state.

If Biden wins South Carolina and is competitive in New Hampshire and Nevada, that means that he is pretty much on the same trajectory that was expected before the voting actually began, which means it is more likely that he will retain support in the Super Tuesday states than Bloomberg, because black voters aren't going to abandon him for Bloomberg when he would still be on pace to win the nomination based on his expected path to victory before Iowa (e.g., competitive in the first three states and win South Carolina convincingly).

[oasis]

9. Yup. When Joe comes roaring back there can be no stopping him. nt

[Gothmog]

7. I agree with this analysis

Link to tweet

[scheming daemons]

8. If Buttigieg wins NH....

...he will take on an air of "this guy's a winner".... and his numbers will start to climb dramatically among black voters.


The reason Bloomberg's numbers are high with them is because of the perception that he can beat Trump.



The absolute last place black voters will go to is to Bernie Sanders, until and unless there is no other option.

[Recursion]

10. Yep (nt)

[honest.abe]

11. Interesting.

Bloomberg could pull this off if Biden falters.