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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 04:54 PM

 

Bernie is Now 50/50 to Win Nomination as Biden's Chances Crater: Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight

Mediaite

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) has roughly a 50/50 shot at winning the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination — more than double the probability of his nearest competitor — according to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.

A forecast from FiveThirtyEight places Sanders’ odds at “1 in 2,” with former Vice President Joe Biden’s odds at “1 in 5,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at “1 in 20,” and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at “1 in 30.”

All other 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, including Mike Bloomberg, Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard, are placed at “1 in 100” odds.

Sanders is also currently predicted to receive around 1,782 pledged delegates, with Biden at 987, Buttigieg at 402, Warren at 394, and Bloomberg at 339.

snip


more at link
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply Bernie is Now 50/50 to Win Nomination as Biden's Chances Crater: Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight (Original post)
JoeOtterbein Feb 2020 OP
Botany Feb 2020 #1
Garion_55 Feb 2020 #4
Progress_Dem Feb 2020 #5
Botany Feb 2020 #6
Progress_Dem Feb 2020 #10
ehrnst Feb 2020 #20
Name removed Feb 2020 #22
ehrnst Feb 2020 #25
Name removed Feb 2020 #27
njhoneybadger Feb 2020 #26
Name removed Feb 2020 #28
Botany Feb 2020 #30
ibegurpard Feb 2020 #13
DownriverDem Feb 2020 #17
Alliepoo Feb 2020 #29
octoberlib Feb 2020 #2
ancianita Feb 2020 #15
Peacetrain Feb 2020 #3
Garion_55 Feb 2020 #7
Peacetrain Feb 2020 #11
bucolic_frolic Feb 2020 #8
Progress_Dem Feb 2020 #9
evertonfc Feb 2020 #12
ancianita Feb 2020 #14
disndat Feb 2020 #16
Zeus69 Feb 2020 #18
R B Garr Feb 2020 #21
onecaliberal Feb 2020 #19
LanternWaste Feb 2020 #23
themaguffin Feb 2020 #24
William769 Feb 2020 #31
Tom Rinaldo Feb 2020 #32

Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 04:56 PM

1. And if Bernie gets the nomination Trump will get a 2nd term

 

n/t
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:01 PM

4. I would hope not.

 

A.B.T. really should mean anyone but trump.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:02 PM

5. Why do you think this?

 

Sanders consistently beats Trump in polls. Sanders' policies are also popular with the American people. Young voters love him. New voters love him.

Sanders is our best option.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Progress_Dem (Reply #5)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:03 PM

6. Do you really want me to answer that?

 

n/t
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Botany (Reply #6)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:04 PM

10. Yes, please. That is why I asked.

 

And don't just repeat Republican talking points.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Progress_Dem (Reply #5)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 10:58 AM

20. Which polls are those?

 

Polls taken now about a hypothetical GE matchup between Sanders and Trump can't take into account that the GOP is boosting him now as a nominee, and they have never aimed any oppo at him - quite the opposite. They are boosting him. Again.

That would completely change should Sanders actually win the nomination. But do share the polls that you are referencing. I'm interested in your sources. Here are mine:

https://www.businessinsider.com/gop-claim-pelosi-intentionally-helping-biden-and-hurting-bernie-sanders-2020-1

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/14/us/politics/trump-sanders-bloomberg-2020.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/17/indictment-russians-also-tried-help-bernie-sanders-jill-stein-presidential-campaigns/348051002/

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/20/18508880/karl-rove-bernie-sanders-could-beat-donald-trump-in-2020

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/07/bernie-sanders-republican-senate-1307296

https://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/20/bernie-sanders-gets-some-outside-help-he-didnt-ask-for/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to ehrnst (Reply #20)


Response to Name removed (Reply #22)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:59 PM

25. "publishing from inside the beltway..."

 

As though Sanders hasn't been working there for decades. And there was no greater 'insider' than [link:http://|Tad Devine].



And here I thought that effective political experience and expertise were only threats to RW ers.

Remember, those inside the beltway thought there was no way Trump could win in 2016. They also thought Clinton would be the Democratic nominee in 2008. Insider political opinion is not always right.


Hon, HRC beat Trump by the the predicted margin of votes. So there's that.

And Clinton came within less than 1% of the primary vote to Obama.

Not so much with Sanders. And he's certainly weaker out of the starting blocks in IA than last time.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to ehrnst (Reply #25)


Response to Progress_Dem (Reply #5)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:07 PM

26. Yes, but it's not about the polls now it's about the polls after the Rethugs

 

Run him through their meat grinders.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to njhoneybadger (Reply #26)


Response to njhoneybadger (Reply #26)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 03:54 PM

30. Make no doubt about it Russia and the Trumpublicans are working 24/7 to make Bernie the pick

 

n/t
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:18 PM

13. Better get ready to work to make sure that doesn't happen

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:36 PM

17. For sure

 

Does anyone know anything about this? it was on Facebook. "For the record there was plenty of support in Iowa for Biden, The Beto Road Warriors knocked on thousands of doors but seniors refused to caucus because they were afraid of Warren and Sanders supporters some of whom actually went up to them and grabbed them."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 02:16 PM

29. I absolutely agree with you.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 04:57 PM

2. Way too early. Also get ready for four more years of Trump.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to octoberlib (Reply #2)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:24 PM

15. WAY too early. WAY too early. Everyone here needs to remember that. DON'T get ready for 45. Nope.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:01 PM

3. I do not think Sanders can stand up to the crap throw that the republicans will

 

give him.. look at how they are trying to crucify Bidens son. He (Sanders) cannot take that heat..
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Peacetrain (Reply #3)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:03 PM

7. well, if he ends up the nominee

 

i would expect the entire democratic party to stand up for him and fight those bastards back for the good of this country and our kids.

just like i would if biden ends up the nominee or warren.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garion_55 (Reply #7)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:07 PM

11. The party will stand behind him.. but the attacks are going to be brutal..

 

and they are going to go after Jane the way they are going after Hunter.. I honestly do not think Bernie could take that.. I just don't Trump does not care.. he has not moral center..
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:03 PM

8. I don't believe a word Nate Silver says

 

Remember 2016!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:03 PM

9. About right

 

I worry about Bloomberg though.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:17 PM

12. I'm for Joe BUT

 

Sanders could beat Trump. Bill Clinton and Obama were longshots until they caught momentum in primaries. Trump was the long shots of all long shots expected to lose even on election night. Hell, many of us wanted to run against this stupid guy with a small but energized base. I think Joe has an easier path but if gotv we win. If not, we lose. Simple math really
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:22 PM

14. 50+ more primaries are left for chrissake. Let's not lose Biden or any other Democrat in advance.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:32 PM

16. Sanders is easier for Trump to beat.

 

The Trump campaign is probably behind Sanders sudden rise and $$$.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 05:46 PM

18. If BS is the nominee

 

I'll sit back, grab my bucket of popcorn, and watch the beatdown

(oh and that's by Trump, to Bernie)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Zeus69 (Reply #18)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 11:07 AM

21. Yup, and drag down ballot candidates and the party down

 

with him as socialists. Trump doesn’t have to know anything. Just smear Democrats as socialists.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:02 PM

19. Until The black vote swings Bernie, I'm not buying the media spin.

 

And 538 said Hillary had a 90% chance of beating trump. I don’t believe a single thing he says.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 11:17 AM

23. The pretense that the first step in a marathon is a leading indicator of victory is absurd.

 

Much less skepticism for polling as he climbs.

That's convenient... but illustrates a bias more than anything else.

Good luck! Another suRgE!!! is soon to come!!!!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:22 PM

24. His chances improved as Warren struggled, not Biden.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 04:33 PM

31. This is the same guy that said Biden would run away with IOWA.

 

Good luck with that.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Original post)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 04:45 PM

32. They don't have metrics or a model that can evaluate Bloomberg's chances

 

No way Tulsi Gabbard has an equal chance with Bloomberg, for example. They have never handicapped a race before where a candidate can write a 100 million dollar check for more media ads on a whim.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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