Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:02 PM Feb 2020

Assuming Sanders "wins" (not certain at all), let's look at it practically:

He said he had 25,000 volunteers in Iowa since late summer/early fall
He spent as much as $50 million in Iowa (I suspect it was closer to $30)
He got roughly 45,000 votes

That calculates to less than 2 votes per volunteer who campaigned roughly four months, and each vote cost more than $600.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
46 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Assuming Sanders "wins" (not certain at all), let's look at it practically: (Original Post) George II Feb 2020 OP
FYI, the increasing creativity of attempts to dismiss or downplay Bernie's victory does nothing DanTex Feb 2020 #1
Lol. Right. Hassin Bin Sober Feb 2020 #8
Now that's a tough one to spin but I have faith that the Biden supporters will try really hard. jalan48 Feb 2020 #10
Looking at the betting markets which are very accurate at predicting the GE outcome Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #19
LOL. Whoever tweeted that has never been a trader or even been to math class. DanTex Feb 2020 #24
As I said this isn't an I gotcha moment. Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #27
Depressing. I've always thought BS could win the nomination but lose redstateblues Feb 2020 #25
Touting having the most round one caucus goers lapucelle Feb 2020 #28
Exactly. Bernie Math again. nt R B Garr Feb 2020 #39
Or... R B Garr Feb 2020 #38
"He won. But he did a lot of work to win." Gravitycollapse Feb 2020 #2
Wow.. I remember that "25,000 volunteers" figure.. Cha Feb 2020 #3
Looking at it practically, Bernie did much better than Biden in our first primary. jalan48 Feb 2020 #4
The first primary won't be held until February 11. George II Feb 2020 #5
True, I should have said caucus to be technically correct. How about caucus then? How did Biden do? jalan48 Feb 2020 #7
And? HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #6
I think Bernie would rather be where he is than in Biden's place. jalan48 Feb 2020 #9
Just wait. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #22
And, caucusy Iowa Cha Feb 2020 #23
We shall see. jalan48 Feb 2020 #26
He's halfway to 1% of the delegates needed to win the nomination. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #20
Biden spent 9M on tv advertising in Iowa. Voltaire2 Feb 2020 #11
This message was self-deleted by its author Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #17
Cost of TV advertising I understand. Ghost Dog Feb 2020 #40
People, salaries lodging travel meals. Voltaire2 Feb 2020 #42
European political campaigning in no way costs Ghost Dog Feb 2020 #43
6 weeks vs 2 years. Voltaire2 Feb 2020 #44
According to ABC, Sanders spent $10.8M in Iowa. Here's some more perspective... thesquanderer Feb 2020 #12
I've seen numbers in the news like $300 million total spent. George II Feb 2020 #15
Wow, that's about 5x ABC's figure. I'd be curious to see that documented. n/t thesquanderer Feb 2020 #18
I saw that $300M a few times earlier in the week. It's really hard to pin down the numbers though... George II Feb 2020 #21
What's killing me about this JustAnotherGen Feb 2020 #13
The reports of Biden's demise are extremely exaggerated. LakeArenal Feb 2020 #14
Exactly. It looks like he'll get 3, maybe 4 less delegates than expected. George II Feb 2020 #16
I agree JustAnotherGen Feb 2020 #45
That's great. Bernie was able to spend that kind of money becasue he had it, and the reason he had totodeinhere Feb 2020 #29
This Was From The End Of December Me. Feb 2020 #30
See the problem is he knows how to raise Voltaire2 Feb 2020 #32
Effectively? Me. Feb 2020 #33
A win is a win. Voltaire2 Feb 2020 #36
A Win Isn't A Win Until It's A Win Me. Feb 2020 #41
I'm just worried he can't beat Trump. Turin_C3PO Feb 2020 #31
Agree! Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #34
Wall Street has deep pockets and they will destroy Bernie njhoneybadger Feb 2020 #35
Bloomberg's offices in 6 key swing states JustAnotherGen Feb 2020 #46
Could be a LOT worse....he could have come in fourth with jmg257 Feb 2020 #37
 

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
1. FYI, the increasing creativity of attempts to dismiss or downplay Bernie's victory does nothing
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:06 PM
Feb 2020

but make it all the clearer how significant that victory was.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Hassin Bin Sober

(26,324 posts)
8. Lol. Right.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:15 PM
Feb 2020

Never mind the supposed invincible candidate who got ZERO pledged delegates. ZERO.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

jalan48

(13,856 posts)
10. Now that's a tough one to spin but I have faith that the Biden supporters will try really hard.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:22 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Thekaspervote

(32,754 posts)
19. Looking at the betting markets which are very accurate at predicting the GE outcome
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:53 PM
Feb 2020

Whether your guy won IA or not... there will be no victory in the GE




?s=21

This isn’t an I gotcha moment/post.. it’s reality
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
24. LOL. Whoever tweeted that has never been a trader or even been to math class.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 07:05 PM
Feb 2020

The odds have Bernie as the most electable. Right now at 49 for the nomination and 30 to be the next president, that puts him at 30/49=61% to beat Trump if he gets the nom, higher than Bloomberg or Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Thekaspervote

(32,754 posts)
27. As I said this isn't an I gotcha moment.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 07:17 PM
Feb 2020

It isn’t about being lower or higher than one candidate or another. Like it or not this is the reality. Bernie is just not that strong of candidate either.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

redstateblues

(10,565 posts)
25. Depressing. I've always thought BS could win the nomination but lose
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 07:10 PM
Feb 2020

The GE. Unless something unforeseen happens I have a bad feeling about this

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

lapucelle

(18,242 posts)
28. Touting having the most round one caucus goers
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 07:20 PM
Feb 2020

and spinning it into an an invented metric (“the initial popular vote”) is just sad.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

R B Garr

(16,950 posts)
39. Exactly. Bernie Math again. nt
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 08:36 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

R B Garr

(16,950 posts)
38. Or...
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 08:35 PM
Feb 2020

more people are interested in honesty.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gravitycollapse

(8,155 posts)
2. "He won. But he did a lot of work to win."
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:08 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Cha

(297,123 posts)
3. Wow.. I remember that "25,000 volunteers" figure..
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:09 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

jalan48

(13,856 posts)
4. Looking at it practically, Bernie did much better than Biden in our first primary.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:10 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
5. The first primary won't be held until February 11.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:13 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

jalan48

(13,856 posts)
7. True, I should have said caucus to be technically correct. How about caucus then? How did Biden do?
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:14 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

HarlanPepper

(2,042 posts)
6. And?
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:14 PM
Feb 2020

If the Biden campaign is as listless as Sanders supporters here and the media have made it out to be, that doesn’t feel like a very big accomplishment at this point.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

jalan48

(13,856 posts)
9. I think Bernie would rather be where he is than in Biden's place.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:16 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)
22. Just wait.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 07:03 PM
Feb 2020

The base awaits Bernie below. He can't run in tiny white place forever.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cha

(297,123 posts)
23. And, caucusy Iowa
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 07:04 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)
20. He's halfway to 1% of the delegates needed to win the nomination.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:59 PM
Feb 2020

Strong Victory Win!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Voltaire2

(13,003 posts)
11. Biden spent 9M on tv advertising in Iowa.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:22 PM
Feb 2020

Assuming his campaign also had a ground campaign, he likely spent between 10-20M on the state.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Response to Voltaire2 (Reply #11)

 

Ghost Dog

(16,881 posts)
40. Cost of TV advertising I understand.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 08:54 PM
Feb 2020

But how does a candidate spend many millions "on the ground"?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Voltaire2

(13,003 posts)
42. People, salaries lodging travel meals.
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 11:03 AM
Feb 2020

Offices. Events. Signs. It is all very expensive.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Ghost Dog

(16,881 posts)
43. European political campaigning in no way costs
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 11:15 AM
Feb 2020

so much. Why I wonder.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Voltaire2

(13,003 posts)
44. 6 weeks vs 2 years.
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 11:46 AM
Feb 2020

For starters.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

thesquanderer

(11,986 posts)
12. According to ABC, Sanders spent $10.8M in Iowa. Here's some more perspective...
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:30 PM
Feb 2020

link for spending info: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/breaking-money-democratic-candidates-spent-iowa-68734920

Spending:
Steyer $16.3M
Sanders $10.8M
Buttigieg $10.5M
Biden $9M ($4.2M direct, $4.8M from a supporting super PAC)
Yang $6.9M
Warren $6.3M
Klobuchar $3.9M

Cost per vote:
Steyer $5431
Yang $3938
Biden $390
Buttigieg $248
Sanders $241
Klobuchar $190
Warren $183


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
15. I've seen numbers in the news like $300 million total spent.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:44 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

thesquanderer

(11,986 posts)
18. Wow, that's about 5x ABC's figure. I'd be curious to see that documented. n/t
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:50 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
21. I saw that $300M a few times earlier in the week. It's really hard to pin down the numbers though...
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 07:01 PM
Feb 2020

...there are so many numbers thrown around.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

JustAnotherGen

(31,808 posts)
13. What's killing me about this
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:41 PM
Feb 2020

All of this - is that on the left - we champion taking money out of elections.

It will be interesting to see where Biden ends up midway through. Super PAC money or not - if gets farther with the least amount of money - that tells me his recognition is strong.

He might not need all of the advertising and such that others will need - as he's already a 'star'.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LakeArenal

(28,816 posts)
14. The reports of Biden's demise are extremely exaggerated.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:43 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
16. Exactly. It looks like he'll get 3, maybe 4 less delegates than expected.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:49 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

JustAnotherGen

(31,808 posts)
45. I agree
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 04:06 PM
Feb 2020

And I really truly believe that in SC and NV - Sanders and Buttigieg will falter.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

totodeinhere

(13,058 posts)
29. That's great. Bernie was able to spend that kind of money becasue he had it, and the reason he had
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 07:32 PM
Feb 2020

it is because he gets thousands of small donors who are financing his campaign. Bernie is not trying to buy the nomination by spending billions of his own dollars.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Me.

(35,454 posts)
30. This Was From The End Of December
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 07:33 PM
Feb 2020

“Bernie Sanders hasn’t just been gaining in the polls for the past month. He has also assembled a campaign juggernaut built to last well beyond Iowa — and stocked it with twice as much money as his top rival for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Sanders spent a whopping $50 million in the last three months of 2019 to set up his surge, at least $15 million more than any of Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigieg, the other main contenders in Iowa. And even while Sanders blew out his spending budget, his legion of small-dollar online donors pumped in enough money for him to finish the year with $18.2 million in the bank, more than twice as much as Biden, who had $8.9 million.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/01/bernie-sanders-fec-spending-110157

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Voltaire2

(13,003 posts)
32. See the problem is he knows how to raise
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 07:43 PM
Feb 2020

money and spend it effectively. That is why he’s obviously the wrong choice.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Me.

(35,454 posts)
33. Effectively?
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 07:47 PM
Feb 2020

And he couldn't pull out a decisive win? After the complaints he made after his loss in'16 he insisted on rules changes and this mess is what we got.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Voltaire2

(13,003 posts)
36. A win is a win.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 08:32 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Me.

(35,454 posts)
41. A Win Isn't A Win Until It's A Win
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 09:19 PM
Feb 2020

a lot of gaslighting going on tonight

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Turin_C3PO

(13,952 posts)
31. I'm just worried he can't beat Trump.
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 07:37 PM
Feb 2020

I will wholeheartedly support him if he wins the nomination, with canvassing and donations. But I don’t have a good feeling about his chances in certain states.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

njhoneybadger

(3,910 posts)
35. Wall Street has deep pockets and they will destroy Bernie
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 08:31 PM
Feb 2020

Whatever Bernie raises they'll raise 10 Times more. The Commercials will be non stop in the swing states. Dream all you want but it ain't gonna happen

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

JustAnotherGen

(31,808 posts)
46. Bloomberg's offices in 6 key swing states
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 04:09 PM
Feb 2020

Are going to be set up through November - regardless of who the Nominee is. If Sanders is the nominee - he's going to have to stop being visionary and start being pragmatic. IE Take the money, the field offices, the paid canvassers, advertising and run.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

jmg257

(11,996 posts)
37. Could be a LOT worse....he could have come in fourth with
Thu Feb 6, 2020, 08:33 PM
Feb 2020

almost half the number of votes.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Democratic Primaries»Assuming Sanders "wins" (...