Betting markets very accurate at predicting GE races

[Thekaspervote]

Everytime sanders chances of winning the nomination goes up trump’s chances of winning the GE go up.

Link to tweet

?s=21

[PatSeg]

1. Ouch!

[OhZone]

2. I like that Trump is going down -

but remember that the betting markets had Clinton at 97 or higher to win just before the election.

I think one even paid out too soon.

The betting markets aren't that accurate any more.

[Thekaspervote]

8. Actually they are very accurate

But FiveThirtyEight has another problem, a more serious one. Over the last three US elections, Nate and his team don’t reliably beat prediction markets, such as PredictIt and Intrade. Moreover, while both 538 and Intrade make reasonable predictions, they are not independent.

More at the link
https://medium.com/@Soccermatics/why-fivethirtyeight-predictions-dont-beat-prediction-markets-9d619b8c1c1e

[OhZone]

9. I seem to remember -

538 was the only one actually showing Trump's probability going up the last couple of weeks of the election, while predictwise and the Irish one had Clinton at nearly 100%



After paying out early on a Clinton win, Trump victory costs Irish bookmaker $5 million

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/09/after-paying-out-early-on-a-clinton-win-trump-victory-costs-irish-bookmaker-5-million.html

[Amishman]

14. Trump winning was at low 40s only a month or two ago

Betting market has shifted by 10-12%

[HerbChestnut]

3. You don't think it might have something to do with Trump's acquittal?

[Mr.Bill]

7. Anyone who wasn't expecting that

is an idiot.

[Amishman]

15. Only in part, impeachment in the house didn't hurt the gambling odds

He has steadily risen throughout impeachment. I don't see the senates fuckery making a major difference where the rest didn't

[Autumn]

4. Then Bloom should step out. Bernie will go up.

[OhZone]

5. After paying out early on a Clinton win, Trump victory costs Irish bookmaker $5 million

Here it is-

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/09/after-paying-out-early-on-a-clinton-win-trump-victory-costs-irish-bookmaker-5-million.html

[DanTex]

6. And the betting markets clearly rank Bernie as the most electable.

Right now he's at 49 to win the nom and 30 to be the next president, which comes out to 30/49=61% to win the GE if he gets the nom. That's higher than Bloomberg or Biden.

The person who wrote that tweet has obviously never traded or even been to math class, which is why he unintentionally (and hilariously) highlighted the fact that the candidate he is trying to attack is actually the one prediction markets give the best chance at beating Trump.

[Tiggeroshii]

10. Sooo what you are saying is that Bernie is going to be the nominee based on the accuracy

of these markets?

[LenaBaby61]

11. I know one thing ....

I'm voting BLUE no matter WHO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tweedy]

13. Absolutely with you!

[David__77]

12. Here's graphed data for last three months, side by side.

Primary is to the left, general election to the right. Sanders is on way up in both of them.

I don't draw the same conclusion based on these data.