It's amazing how fast it all got real once voting started.

[bluewater]

As someone that has followed the ups and downs of the polling for months, I am a bit stunned how fast the first actual election results have impacted the race.

Sanders has shot to the top of all the projections. He even just won A Morning Consult Poll and that never changes! (insider navel gazing poll watcher joke)

Buttigieg has emerged as a top 2 challenger.

Warren is facing do or die races in New Hampshire and Nevada

.

And Joe Biden, the long time frontrunner, is back on his heels after finishing 4th and facing an existential threat from small city mayor Pete Buttigieg.

I know, I know, many of us are out there spinning for our preferred candidate and against their closest opponent (I have been doing that the last 3 days myself, to be honest) but I felt I had to just take a minute and comment on how fast and how much things seem to have changed since voting occurred in Iowa.

It's been startling.

[PatSeg]

1. And a lot of it

is the media sensationalizing the results as well. I think a lot of it depends if the candidates have enough money to keep going.

Howard Dean just said on Meet the Press, "We do too much of this. Its a long haul and its meant to be a long haul......I think its too early to have this kind of talk. Even though I know you have to do a show." He said that he didn't pull out until Wisconsin, even though he came in third in Iowa, as well as other states.

[MerryBlooms]

2. I saw this morning NH polling Biden and Warren at 12% behind

Sanders 31%
Buttigieg 21%

Those numbers have probably changed this afternoon.

Biden and Warren need better numbers coming out of NH or they're both going to struggle financially going forward. Saw a headline earlier about Biden being disappointed in NH numbers, but can't find it now. I hope for better turnout in New Hampshire than we had in Iowa.

[scheming daemons]

3. The Warren news out of Nevada today isn't going to help her

If she has a 4th place finish in NH, it is hard to see how she lasts past Super Tuesday.


And I want her to stick around, to help keep Bernie's numbers down. Because I think Bernie would be an abject disaster for the general election. So the longer Liz sticks around with some strength, the worse for Bernie and the better for the party as a whole.

[relayerbob]

4. I wouldn't expect ...

a lot of Warren supporters to go with Sanders. Some will, of course, but if they are progressive and liked Sanders, they likely would already be in his camp. I wouldn't be surprised if they split between Biden, Buttegieg and Sanders pretty evenly. But that's just my gues

[msongs]

5. sad to say at this point but harris and beto are looking better n better lol nt