Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:03 PM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

Nate Silver predicts Bernie Super Tuesday dominance

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

133 replies, 4883 views

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133 replies	Author	Time	Post
Nate Silver predicts Bernie Super Tuesday dominance (Original post)	OliverQ	Feb 2020	OP
When is super Tuesday?	Happyhippychick	Feb 2020	#1
I'm gonna guess it's on a Tuesday	unblock	Feb 2020	#2
Lol, I guess I should have googled!	Happyhippychick	Feb 2020	#5
March 3	OliverQ	Feb 2020	#3
Ty!	Happyhippychick	Feb 2020	#6
Earlier iteration.	Scurrilous	Feb 2020	#20
Ha!	mysteryowl	Feb 2020	#16
///	Scurrilous	Feb 2020	#31
It's kind of bizarre.	TwilightZone	Feb 2020	#76
Yeah..Someone tweeted that maybe something was wrong with him and could someone check.	Scurrilous	Feb 2020	#92
Nuts! And wrong! Thank you. I did not know HOW it was nuts until you posted. Infuriating.	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#110
I'm assuming his model is factoring in poll changes based on expected earlier results.	Kentonio	Feb 2020	#112
obviously if he "dominates " on Super Tuesday.	evertonfc	Feb 2020	#4
If he is the nominee democracy will be on life support	calguy	Feb 2020	#8
It's weird that so many people say that.	Gore1FL	Feb 2020	#14
Why did Sanders supporters do just that in 2016 GE?	sheshe2	Feb 2020	#40
This one didn't This one voted for Clinton.	Gore1FL	Feb 2020	#128
Most of us did	democrattotheend	Feb 2020	#130
Biden supporters aren't the problem...	brooklynite	Feb 2020	#116
I know erstwhile Republicans that support Sanders.	Gore1FL	Feb 2020	#127
And another reminder...	Doremus	Feb 2020	#132
I disagree.	mysteryowl	Feb 2020	#18
Based on what? Bernie has the most enthusiastic	OliverQ	Feb 2020	#22
LOL Wrong.	Scurrilous	Feb 2020	#35
But but but it's BERRRRNNNIIIIEEE!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Feb 2020	#36
I like Bernie and elizabeth	jimfields33	Feb 2020	#61
It's total bullshit.	Scurrilous	Feb 2020	#10
Thank you. Amazing how easily Biden is dismissed over two little white states when,	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#21
Bernie won over 30% of the minority vote in Iowa.	OliverQ	Feb 2020	#28
LMFAO!! There goes that talking point!! BOOOOOOOOMMM!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Feb 2020	#39
Care to share the link to that?	sheshe2	Feb 2020	#48
Link?	sheshe2	Feb 2020	#47
LOL	Scurrilous	Feb 2020	#51
Criminal of Silver to make this pronouncement about Bernie, which flies in the face of common	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#58
A couple dozen people, then?	The Velveteen Ocelot	Feb 2020	#54
How many "minority" people, slamming them all together, do you think even caucused in	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#56
Absolutely right. I thought that Iowa was 91 + percent white. 4% African American but	demgrrrll	Feb 2020	#109
Biden has been dismissed from the same usual supporters since he entered the race	still_one	Feb 2020	#55
Biden just got destroyed in Iowa.	OliverQ	Feb 2020	#25
Yup Yup!! It's 1988/2008 deja vu all over again!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Feb 2020	#41
Bernie blew the bank and wasted the efforts of 25,000 people to get .55% of delegates needed to win.	Scurrilous	Feb 2020	#59
As Bernie just raised more money in a month than the others did in 3..	Kentonio	Feb 2020	#113
Kep donating and praying the communist stuff doesn't come out.	Scurrilous	Feb 2020	#114
The states don't get any bigger or more diverse because you depict Biden's falling behind in them	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#62
Bernie crushed your candidate as well. If she doesn't make top 2 in her neighboring	redstateblues	Feb 2020	#85
Yup, he did.	OliverQ	Feb 2020	#87
Wrong. Biden was just endorsed by the IBEW Union.	R B Garr	Feb 2020	#100
And you think the white guy bragging	OliverQ	Feb 2020	#103
The white guy was Obama's VP. I won't go over the obvious	R B Garr	Feb 2020	#104
What does being a small state have to do with Biden's electability?	OliverQ	Feb 2020	#105
Really? Now you're stretching. I'm in California	R B Garr	Feb 2020	#107
It all boils down to the delegate count.	ahoysrcsm	Feb 2020	#111
Biden was vice president for 8 years to the most popular president in recent history.	Tiggeroshii	Feb 2020	#45
And come Tuesday he will lose more support	FreeState	Feb 2020	#84
I don't think so.	Scurrilous	Feb 2020	#94
Not hard to predict. Biden is collapsing & Mayor Pete will struggle in a lot of these states.	Drunken Irishman	Feb 2020	#7
If Biden collapses	calguy	Feb 2020	#9
Me, too.	The Velveteen Ocelot	Feb 2020	#30
Really? Because Wisconsin has a long history of being pro-Socialism	OliverQ	Feb 2020	#37
+10,000,000	Tiggeroshii	Feb 2020	#49
Bernie is a socialist. He's said so.	The Velveteen Ocelot	Feb 2020	#53
+10000	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#77
There's a difference between calling Sanders a socialist and calling Bloomberg one.	TwilightZone	Feb 2020	#69
I will as well. Bernie can't win the GE	redstateblues	Feb 2020	#88
So you want another out of touch billionaire	OliverQ	Feb 2020	#32
Doesn't seem out if touch to me.	Laura PourMeADrink	Feb 2020	#68
He was a very effective Mayor of the largest city in the US	redstateblues	Feb 2020	#90
I'm not saying I want him at this point	calguy	Feb 2020	#123
Me too!!! And both my sisters! Love the way he gets	Laura PourMeADrink	Feb 2020	#65
My mother is voting Bloomberg	xmas74	Feb 2020	#108
Since you actually are not supporting Biden, as you believe he is "collapsing," why don't you choose	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#11
He's full of it.	Scurrilous	Feb 2020	#15
Nah	Drunken Irishman	Feb 2020	#26
I have never seen any candidate's supporter describe with such certainty the premature demise	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#83
I've never seen a candidate come in a distant third or fourth in either IA or NH and win the nom	Drunken Irishman	Feb 2020	#91
Thought he's toast immediately following a less than stellar night at Tuesday's debate. Are you	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#99
I still support Biden but I can read the writing on the walls.	Drunken Irishman	Feb 2020	#17
+1.	Laura PourMeADrink	Feb 2020	#71
I admire your intellectual honesty... respect!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Feb 2020	#73
LOL If you are going to persist with this post numbers to back up your claim.	Scurrilous	Feb 2020	#12
Lol okay.	Drunken Irishman	Feb 2020	#23
He very well may lose this second little homogeneous state. So? He leads in polls in TEN states	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#33
It's called the domino effect.	Drunken Irishman	Feb 2020	#43
Yeah. Like the stock market. The people who panic make it worse. Supporters do well to stay steady.	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#70
It's not necessarily panic. It's a realization.	Drunken Irishman	Feb 2020	#79
You prosecute your anti-Biden case with skill. This makes for a great closing argument.	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#101
Yeah, so it's on to a billionaire who supported Shrub to save us from The Bern!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Feb 2020	#44
This is the scenario that terrifies me the most.	underthematrix	Feb 2020	#13
Or, believe in democracy.	mysteryowl	Feb 2020	#19
And Trump gets four more years as and likely wins the house.	Demsrule86	Feb 2020	#24
No, we most certainly do NOT want that!!!	mysteryowl	Feb 2020	#34
I don't believe Sanders can win a general. He has my vote in the	Demsrule86	Feb 2020	#89
If Republicans actually thought they had a chance at winning back the House	OliverQ	Feb 2020	#42
That is reassuring, thanks.	mysteryowl	Feb 2020	#60
That was before impeachment. We have moderates in the House who gave us	Demsrule86	Feb 2020	#86
Yes. Makes utter sense. But you know, sense is not all that welcome.	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#102
I kind of discovered that with my post...	Demsrule86	Feb 2020	#118
They didnt as anticipate we might be foolish enough to nominate someone	Demsrule86	Feb 2020	#78
Of course they did.	OliverQ	Feb 2020	#82
Bernie was supposed to drive a huge turnout in Iowa. Didn't happen	redstateblues	Feb 2020	#93
Iowa is 90% white and Biden came in 4th place.	OliverQ	Feb 2020	#98
Oh please, he feared Biden and says all sorts of nice things about Sanders	Demsrule86	Feb 2020	#96
Well, this is what stock holders do when the news is bad. Then the news gets worse. Why don't you	emmaverybo	Feb 2020	#27
Oh at this point I'm still very much in the Biden camp but if the winds shift	underthematrix	Feb 2020	#38
We'll save you a spot on the Bernie Bandwagon!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Feb 2020	#46
I'll never get on his bandwagon but I will definitely vote for him if he's the nominee	underthematrix	Feb 2020	#66
Fair enough!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Feb 2020	#72
Biden and Pete's fall strategy worked great.	blm	Feb 2020	#29
YOU SAID IT!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Feb 2020	#52
Prepare the fainting couches!	jalan48	Feb 2020	#50
I've discovered what makes Bernie supporters faint/run the fuck away: facts and numbers.	Scurrilous	Feb 2020	#57
Ah declare, Bernie might win. Egads!!	jalan48	Feb 2020	#64
This message was self-deleted by its author	Scurrilous	Feb 2020	#67
No, Anyone in their right mind knows Sanders is 1 billion times better than Trump...the issue is	Demsrule86	Feb 2020	#119
I disagree. People want change, we saw it in the Republican primary four years ago. I	jalan48	Feb 2020	#120
Please stop with the status quo stuff...Trump is the status quo and no Democrat wants that.	Demsrule86	Feb 2020	#121
Please stop with the naivete. Bernie or Warren are the only ones who stand a chance of beating Trump	jalan48	Feb 2020	#122
They have no chance of beating Trump...	Demsrule86	Feb 2020	#131
Joe lacks the sizzle and Bloomberg-well, why would a voter be motivated to vote for not only	jalan48	Feb 2020	#133
LMFAO!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Feb 2020	#74
Ugh.	Laura PourMeADrink	Feb 2020	#63
We're going to lose bad	greenjar_01	Feb 2020	#75
That's a bit over wrought, greenjar_01	Hekate	Feb 2020	#80
Perhaps	greenjar_01	Feb 2020	#81
then 4 more years of trump	EveHammond13	Feb 2020	#95
There is no reason to assume that.	OliverQ	Feb 2020	#97
we are fucked.	EveHammond13	Feb 2020	#106
If Sanders	MFM008	Feb 2020	#115
And last month, a Bernie suRgE!!!! was predicted too. This prophecy seems just as viable.	LanternWaste	Feb 2020	#117
Honest.Abe predicts Nate will have a Super Tuesday fail.	honest.abe	Feb 2020	#124
Yes!!!!	Malmsy	Feb 2020	#125
Settle down	Loki Liesmith	Feb 2020	#126
Kinda like the Biden win he predicted	BlueIdaho	Feb 2020	#129

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:04 PM

Happyhippychick (8,379 posts)

1. When is super Tuesday?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Happyhippychick (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:06 PM

unblock (51,193 posts)

2. I'm gonna guess it's on a Tuesday

Ok, ok...

March 3

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to unblock (Reply #2)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:09 PM

Happyhippychick (8,379 posts)

5. Lol, I guess I should have googled!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Happyhippychick (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:06 PM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

3. March 3

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #3)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:09 PM

Happyhippychick (8,379 posts)

6. Ty!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #3)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:23 PM

Scurrilous (38,676 posts)

20. Earlier iteration.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=481235

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Happyhippychick (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:19 PM

mysteryowl (6,264 posts)

16. Ha!

I have asked similar questions with obvious answers.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to Happyhippychick (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:31 PM

Scurrilous (38,676 posts)

31. ///

Last edited Tue Feb 11, 2020, 03:28 AM - Edit history (1)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Scurrilous (Reply #31)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:15 AM

TwilightZone (21,570 posts)

76. It's kind of bizarre.

There doesn't seem to be valid reasons behind the switch, which is exceedingly un-Nate-like.

I don't really get it. He's normally over-cautious, not throw-caution-to-the-wind.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to TwilightZone (Reply #76)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:37 AM

Scurrilous (38,676 posts)

92. Yeah..Someone tweeted that maybe something was wrong with him and could someone check.

He was giving states like Tennessee, Alabama, and Oklahoma to Bernie defying all logic and poll history. Bernie is 5th in Oklahoma. He's behind by 20 or more in all those states. He gave both of Warren's states to him. Mass. where he's actually third and Minn. where he's fourth. It was bizarre. Why would a second place Iowa .finish impact for him but not a first place finish for Buttigieg? Crazy

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Scurrilous (Reply #92)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 02:32 AM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

110. Nuts! And wrong! Thank you. I did not know HOW it was nuts until you posted. Infuriating.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to TwilightZone (Reply #76)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 04:33 AM

Kentonio (4,377 posts)

112. I'm assuming his model is factoring in poll changes based on expected earlier results.

So a strong win in NH leading to a good win in NV, leading to a strong second place in SC, creating a big bump going into Super Tuesday.

Just a guess on my part, and if I'm right it still doesn't account for unexpected events of course, but it seems the only way to explain what he's predicting. Especially if a good showing with AA voters in SC had a knock-on effect in other heavily AA states.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:09 PM

evertonfc (1,713 posts)

4. obviously if he "dominates " on Super Tuesday.

He would be the nominee.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to evertonfc (Reply #4)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:13 PM

calguy (3,908 posts)

8. If he is the nominee democracy will be on life support

Because trump will win a landslide victory.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to calguy (Reply #8)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:18 PM

Gore1FL (20,438 posts)

14. It's weird that so many people say that.

Why do you feel Biden supporters would disloyally fail to rally around our party's nominee?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to Gore1FL (Reply #14)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:39 PM

sheshe2 (77,619 posts)

40. Why did Sanders supporters do just that in 2016 GE?

Gore1FL
14. It's weird that so many people say that.

Why do you feel Biden supporters would disloyally fail to rally around our party's nominee?

Three or more of his top advisors voted Green. HE HIRED THEM. They voted for Stein. Nina is proud to be one of them. True Democrats will rally around the winner. Sanders supporters...nope. They will do just what they did last time, vote third party or sit home and whine.

I am sorry, Gore...this is a well known fact.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to sheshe2 (Reply #40)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 04:35 PM

Gore1FL (20,438 posts)

128. This one didn't This one voted for Clinton.

I expect Biden supporters to support the Democrat nominee despite the hand-wringing to the contrary.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to Gore1FL (Reply #128)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 04:44 PM

democrattotheend (11,604 posts)

130. Most of us did

The vast majority of us voted for Hillary. More than the percentage of Hillary supporters who voted for Obama in 2008, I believe. Many of us also donated and/or campaigned for her. But a small but vocal minority gave us all a bad name.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to Gore1FL (Reply #14)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 06:58 AM

brooklynite (84,390 posts)

116. Biden supporters aren't the problem...

We don't win with just Democrats. We have to appeal to a share of Independents and moderate Republicans as well, esp. in PA, Mi and Wi.

Reminder, when we won in 2018, we did so with moderate candidates in suburban districts, not AOC-types.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to brooklynite (Reply #116)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 04:34 PM

Gore1FL (20,438 posts)

127. I know erstwhile Republicans that support Sanders.

Maybe we should concentrate on getting the vote of people we agree with rather than those who think Reagan and the confederacy were good ideas.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to brooklynite (Reply #116)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 06:58 PM

Doremus (7,251 posts)

132. And another reminder...

when we lost in 2016 we did so because of 80k disaffected blue collars in the rust belt.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to calguy (Reply #8)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:20 PM

mysteryowl (6,264 posts)

18. I disagree.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to calguy (Reply #8)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:24 PM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

22. Based on what? Bernie has the most enthusiastic

base, the best ground game, the best policies, and the best ability to unite both young and older.

Nobody is enthusiastic about Biden, most young voters will probably not vote for him, and he's going to have to face the Ukraine scandal that Trump created for him, which is going to get worse based on what the Treasury is now doing.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #22)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:34 PM

Scurrilous (38,676 posts)

35. LOL Wrong.

Link to tweet

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #22)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:35 PM

InAbLuEsTaTe (23,817 posts)

36. But but but it's BERRRRNNNIIIIEEE!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to InAbLuEsTaTe (Reply #36)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:53 PM

jimfields33 (12,123 posts)

61. I like Bernie and elizabeth

But I just thought of one negative for the ticket. 2 republican senators! We won’t gain the senate for sure. Both Vermont and Massachusetts have Republican Governors.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to evertonfc (Reply #4)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:16 PM

Scurrilous (38,676 posts)

10. It's total bullshit.

Biden is ahead in 10 upcoming primaries after NH. Warren in two. Bernie in 5. Three of the ones he has Bernie winning have recent polls showing Bernie 20 or more points behind. Bernie is 5th in one, 4th in one, and 3rd in another. Poll numbers on 538 disprove all of this. A joke.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Scurrilous (Reply #10)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:24 PM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

21. Thank you. Amazing how easily Biden is dismissed over two little white states when,

as you say, he leads in TEN upcoming primaries after New Hampshire. And still runs far ahead with AA voters.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to emmaverybo (Reply #21)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:27 PM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

28. Bernie won over 30% of the minority vote in Iowa.

Biden only got like 17%. Bernie also has stronger Latino support than Biden and Bernie wins among younger AA voters.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #28)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:37 PM

InAbLuEsTaTe (23,817 posts)

39. LMFAO!! There goes that talking point!! BOOOOOOOOMMM!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to InAbLuEsTaTe (Reply #39)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:43 PM

sheshe2 (77,619 posts)

48. Care to share the link to that?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #28)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:42 PM

sheshe2 (77,619 posts)

47. Link?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #28)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:43 PM

Scurrilous (38,676 posts)

51. LOL

Link to tweet

Biden is ahead in 10 post NH states, Bernie 5, and Warren 2.

Biden has 48% of black vote. Bernie has 17%. Bernie is way behind in southern states. In Florida he's behind by 20 in a poll posted today. After NH Bernie will be out of tiny white states to win. It will suck for him.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Scurrilous (Reply #51)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:50 PM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

58. Criminal of Silver to make this pronouncement about Bernie, which flies in the face of common

sense and his own polls.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #28)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:45 PM

The Velveteen Ocelot (105,630 posts)

54. A couple dozen people, then?

Iowa is blindingly white.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #28)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:47 PM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

56. How many "minority" people, slamming them all together, do you think even caucused in

Iowa? How many POC (are you counting Asian, Arabic?) and AA people does 30 percent represent?
Check out Bernie’s numbers with AA voters nation-wide. Biden has 15 endorsements from members of the CBC to Bernie’s how many?

You can’t spin away Bernie’s lack of AA support by subbing in Iowa “minorities” or Hispanic people.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to emmaverybo (Reply #56)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 02:21 AM

demgrrrll (3,590 posts)

109. Absolutely right. I thought that Iowa was 91 + percent white. 4% African American but

AA make up 26 % of the Iowa prison population and if you are a felon you can never vote in Iowa.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to emmaverybo (Reply #21)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:45 PM

still_one (86,900 posts)

55. Biden has been dismissed from the same usual supporters since he entered the race

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Scurrilous (Reply #10)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:26 PM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

25. Biden just got destroyed in Iowa.

He's going to get destroyed in New Hampshire. His support is going to tank. People are already moving to Pete and Bloomberg because they know Biden is going to lose. The only other candidate who can come anywhere close to making up that gap is Bernie.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #25)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:39 PM

InAbLuEsTaTe (23,817 posts)

41. Yup Yup!! It's 1988/2008 deja vu all over again!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #25)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:50 PM

Scurrilous (38,676 posts)

59. Bernie blew the bank and wasted the efforts of 25,000 people to get .55% of delegates needed to win.

Celebrate! As I said, tougher days ahead for the rapidly diminishing revolution.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Scurrilous (Reply #59)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 04:35 AM

Kentonio (4,377 posts)

113. As Bernie just raised more money in a month than the others did in 3..

I think 'blowing the bank' is not a major issue at this point.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to Kentonio (Reply #113)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 04:38 AM

Scurrilous (38,676 posts)

114. Kep donating and praying the communist stuff doesn't come out.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #25)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:56 PM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

62. The states don't get any bigger or more diverse because you depict Biden's falling behind in them

as his being “destroyed.” After NH, Biden leads in TEN delegate-rich states. These are states where Bernie has an uphill battle.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #25)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:32 AM

redstateblues (10,554 posts)

85. Bernie crushed your candidate as well. If she doesn't make top 2 in her neighboring

State she may be done

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to redstateblues (Reply #85)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:34 AM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

87. Yup, he did.

I think Warren is unlikely to win the nomination and Bernie will be my 2nd choice.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #25)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:05 AM

R B Garr (16,533 posts)

100. Wrong. Biden was just endorsed by the IBEW Union.

That’s a big deal. No need to diminish that with a Whatabout.

People know the difference between lily-white states and diversity. Iowa and New Hampshire are white states. Everyone knows this.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to R B Garr (Reply #100)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:14 AM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

103. And you think the white guy bragging

about his electability coming in 4th in a very White state and losing the minority vote is a good thing?

How is Biden electable if he can't win the White vote, the black vote, the Latino vote, or the youth vote?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #103)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:20 AM

R B Garr (16,533 posts)

104. The white guy was Obama's VP. I won't go over the obvious

about that, but Iowa is not a diverse state.

Bernie campaigned for 5 years and lost support. Two small white states don’t really impress those of us from big diverse states.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to R B Garr (Reply #104)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:25 AM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

105. What does being a small state have to do with Biden's electability?

He lost the white vote and the minority vote. How does that translate into winning those categories in bigger states?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #105)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:30 AM

R B Garr (16,533 posts)

107. Really? Now you're stretching. I'm in California

and don’t hang out with rural corn farmers. C’mon now. Think about it. Every state has demographics.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #105)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 03:50 AM

ahoysrcsm (780 posts)

111. It all boils down to the delegate count.

Sanders wasted too much money going after Iowa. He should have gone for delegate rich states. Steyer is making the same mistake in Nevada.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Scurrilous (Reply #10)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:41 PM

Tiggeroshii (11,088 posts)

45. Biden was vice president for 8 years to the most popular president in recent history.

There is no reason he should have come in forth in the first state of the process, especially if "electability" is his central argument.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to Scurrilous (Reply #10)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:30 AM

FreeState (10,274 posts)

84. And come Tuesday he will lose more support

Pete is tied with him in today’s NH tracking poll. Pete’s gained 4 points a day since Monday. At this rate Pete will win NH and Bernies mojo will slide.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to FreeState (Reply #84)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:42 AM

Scurrilous (38,676 posts)

94. I don't think so.

People are going to change their vote based on tiny white NH. Biden's base is waiting for him. They're ready to vote and totally pissed at the hype. Pete and Bernie have no chance to switch the black vote. None. They're faithful to Biden. Bernie is still behind in every southern state w/ Pete way back. That will never change. Congrats on the win today.

Also..for the devotees of early white state primacy, Bill Clinton didn't win until the 6th primary in '92. He started his run with Georgia, the South.

The South -

Alabama - Biden +21%

Florida - Biden +15.7 Average +20 Latest

Georgia - +14.7% Ave. +19% Latest

Miss. Biden +26%

Missouri - Biden +25% Sanders 5th

N. Carolina - Biden +9.7% Ave, +9 Latest

S. Carolina - Biden +15.7% Ave, + 18 Latest Sanders 3rd

Tenn. Biden +15 Sanders 3rd

Texas - Biden +6

VA. - Biden +10.1 Ave. +14 Latest

Biden up the entire polled south. NH won't change that.

HailStateForever@PamChas2

Black people are not going to vote for anyone other than Biden in SC at the same rate. They are not focused on two white states, that exclude them. When Biden gets to my state, we will vote for him as well. Buttigieg and Klobuchar won’t gain his support, nor will they last.

BidenFront(Text Join to 30330)@Biden_Front
·
LOL
Yeah that 53 % african american support will just wake up tomorrow and say, damn that almost all white state thinks something else than we do, we better do what they say-said no African American EVER

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:12 PM

Drunken Irishman (34,857 posts)

7. Not hard to predict. Biden is collapsing & Mayor Pete will struggle in a lot of these states.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #7)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:15 PM

calguy (3,908 posts)

9. If Biden collapses

I'll be supporting Bloomberg.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to calguy (Reply #9)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:30 PM

The Velveteen Ocelot (105,630 posts)

30. Me, too.

Anybody but Sanders. Yes, I'd of course vote for him in the general but the socialist label will stick to him like dog shit on a shoe and with about the same smell, and we'll get another four years of Trump.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #30)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:35 PM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

37. Really? Because Wisconsin has a long history of being pro-Socialism

and Bernie polls extremely well there. Guess which swing state is the biggest risk of us losing? Wisconsin.

Every Democrat is going to be called a Socialist, a communist, or some other stupid insult. Anyone that is actually swayed by that was never going to vote for a Democrat anyway. An Iowa voter just abandoned Pete after voting for him because she found out he's gay. Warren is going to get trashed for being a woman and a former Republican. Bloomberg is going to get destroyed for being an out of touch billionaire who is just trying to protect the rich elites and stop and frisk. Young people will never vote for Bloomberg.

Every candidate is going to have something massive used against them.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #37)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:43 PM

Tiggeroshii (11,088 posts)

49. +10,000,000

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #37)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:43 PM

The Velveteen Ocelot (105,630 posts)

53. Bernie is a socialist. He's said so.

And he used to be involved with the SWP, which was actually Communist. That will stick to him. They'll call any Democrat (or any person pretending to be one every four years) a socialist, but he's the only one who's actually confessed to it. And he doesn't even seem to understand that the Nordic model he's trying to sell isn't socialist - those countries are constitutional monarchies and parliamentary democracies whose economic systems consist of regulated capitalism with robust social programs (and high taxes).

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #53)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:16 AM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

77. +10000

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #37)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:05 AM

TwilightZone (21,570 posts)

69. There's a difference between calling Sanders a socialist and calling Bloomberg one.

The former is an identification that the candidate himself has used freely. It's somewhat inaccurate, actually, but Sanders has saddled himself with it nonetheless.

The latter is laughable. No one is going to buy that Bloomberg is a socialist.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #30)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:34 AM

redstateblues (10,554 posts)

88. I will as well. Bernie can't win the GE

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to calguy (Reply #9)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:33 PM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

32. So you want another out of touch billionaire

who is going to lose the minority vote by double digits?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #32)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:05 AM

Laura PourMeADrink (40,719 posts)

68. Doesn't seem out if touch to me.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #32)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:36 AM

redstateblues (10,554 posts)

90. He was a very effective Mayor of the largest city in the US

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #32)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:05 PM

calguy (3,908 posts)

123. I'm not saying I want him at this point

But I'd rather back a rich billionaire who actually has a good chance to beat trump vs a vulnerable hard left liberal candidate who would get crushed by the GOP hate machine in the general election.
Beating trump is all that matters to me right now.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to calguy (Reply #9)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:03 AM

Laura PourMeADrink (40,719 posts)

65. Me too!!! And both my sisters! Love the way he gets

to trump, since he's so much more successful, decent, and richer.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #65)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:39 AM

xmas74 (29,113 posts)

108. My mother is voting Bloomberg

In the primary on March 10. She loves him.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #7)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:17 PM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

11. Since you actually are not supporting Biden, as you believe he is "collapsing," why don't you choose

a candidate you can throw yourself behind? One you think has a chance? As a Biden supporter, I find your doom and gloom comments about his candidacy dispiriting.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to emmaverybo (Reply #11)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:18 PM

Scurrilous (38,676 posts)

15. He's full of it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Scurrilous (Reply #15)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:26 PM

Drunken Irishman (34,857 posts)

26. Nah

I'm right, unfortunately. If Biden doesn't turn it around by Tuesday, he's toast.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #26)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:27 AM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

83. I have never seen any candidate's supporter describe with such certainty the premature demise

of his/her preferred. It is almost as if you want it to happen, as you set the bar initially to be in N.H. and now advance it to the closer debate night. Will that be soon enough for you for Biden to
turn to “toast?”

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to emmaverybo (Reply #83)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:36 AM

Drunken Irishman (34,857 posts)

91. I've never seen a candidate come in a distant third or fourth in either IA or NH and win the nom

My pessimism is rooted in the reality that since Iowa, Biden's numbers have slumped and that's just with one shit-show of a caucus hitting him. What's it going to be like when you add a fourth-place showing in New Hampshire? If Biden doesn't turn it around in NH, and again, I am not saying he has to win the dang thing, just prove competitive, he will have to turn around and produce one of the biggest, and most stunning, comebacks in Democratic primary history.

Here's the facts:

2016: Hillary won Iowa, finished second in NH
2008: Obama won Iowa, finished second in NH
2004: Kerry won Iowa and New Hampshire
2000: Gore won Iowa and New Hampshire
1992: Iowa was noncompetitive due to Harkin running, Clinton finished a strong second in NH
1988: Dukakis finished second in Iowa, won New Hampshire
1984: Mondale won Iowa, finished second in New Hampshire
1980: Jimmy Carter won the most committed votes in Iowa, won New Hampshire
1972: George McGovern finished second in New Hampshire

Since the primaries were radically changed prior to the '72 election, no Democrat has ever won the nomination without finishing second or better in New Hampshire.

Biden doesn't need to win New Hampshire. But if these two new polls are right, and he's at 11%, and a distant fourth behind Bernie, Mayor Pete and Warren, he'd have to mount the greatest comeback in primary history to win,

That's why I am so certain that if he flames out in NH (again, not loses, just loses badly), he's pretty much toast.

History might not repeat itself but it often does rhyme and what history tells us is that the nominee is going to be someone who finishes either first or second in New Hampshire - fair or not.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #91)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:01 AM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

99. Thought he's toast immediately following a less than stellar night at Tuesday's debate. Are you

giving him until N.H. again now?

I am not going to fault your detailed grasp of electoral history, your compelling analysis, but I’d rather a Bernie supporter pronounce Biden half-dead than one of his own.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to emmaverybo (Reply #11)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:19 PM

Drunken Irishman (34,857 posts)

17. I still support Biden but I can read the writing on the walls.

Biden's numbers are bordering on abysmal in New Hampshire and I think he's all but out if he can't finagle a strong finish there.

I've been one of Biden's biggest supporters here, and still support him, but I'm not going to pretend he's not in trouble. He's in big trouble.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #17)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:06 AM

Laura PourMeADrink (40,719 posts)

71. +1.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #17)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:09 AM

InAbLuEsTaTe (23,817 posts)

73. I admire your intellectual honesty... respect!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #7)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:18 PM

Scurrilous (38,676 posts)

12. LOL If you are going to persist with this post numbers to back up your claim.

I've seen all the poll numbers today. You are talking out of your [redacted] [redacted].

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Scurrilous (Reply #12)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:24 PM

Drunken Irishman (34,857 posts)

23. Lol okay.

Two new NH polls show Biden now 4th at 11%.

Morning Consult, which has been one of Biden's strongest polls, has him dropping five points since Iowa and now sliding behind Bernie nationally.

Biden is in trouble. I just hope his campaign doesn't bury their heads in the sand like some here or he's going to get worked in NH.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #23)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:33 PM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

33. He very well may lose this second little homogeneous state. So? He leads in polls in TEN states

after NV. He could still come away with a gold mine in delegates. Your killing him off is premature. I think his campaign is well aware they must step up their game as are supporters.

Biden gave a great town hall since Iowa and has a terrific new ad. He needs to go at Bernie hard now. No more nice guy.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to emmaverybo (Reply #33)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:41 PM

Drunken Irishman (34,857 posts)

43. It's called the domino effect.

It's silly to dismiss it.

We don't know what Biden's lead is in any of these states because we haven't seen polls from 'em since Iowa. The lone poll that was actually out in the field post-Iowa was the PPP poll from North Carolina and Biden leads +9. That's promising. However, the last PPP poll had Biden at +13 a month ago. Biden also went from leading 31-18-8 over Bernie & Bloomberg in that poll to leading now 25-16-14. Biden's lead shrank from +13 to +9 but more troubling is that his overall vote total shrank from 31% to 25% - a six-point drop in less than a month.

That's just comparing a PPP poll to a PPP poll. The last FOX News poll, released in November, had Biden +22!

We don't know what his standing is in almost every one of those states he leads. Even SC is uncertain, as the latest poll there came out the day before the Iowa Caucus.

What we do know is that in every post-Iowa poll, Biden has lost support. He's lost support nationally and he's lost support in New Hampshire (quite a bit, actually) as well as North Carolina.

It doesn't take someone with a political science degree to see that another poor showing in New Hampshire will only continue the polling trend.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #43)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:05 AM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

70. Yeah. Like the stock market. The people who panic make it worse. Supporters do well to stay steady.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to emmaverybo (Reply #70)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:20 AM

Drunken Irishman (34,857 posts)

79. It's not necessarily panic. It's a realization.

No one likes a loser. It's not fair Iowa and NH went first but we've got to stop pretending these states were that big of a disadvantage for Joe. The problem isn't that Joe lost, though, it's how he lost. Joe consistently out-polled his final result in Iowa for the entire campaign. If he drops to fourth in NH, as two new polls show, that will be two races in a row Biden, who led in many other polls there, has not even been competitive. That opens a lot of questions about his main argument: that he can win.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #79)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:05 AM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

101. You prosecute your anti-Biden case with skill. This makes for a great closing argument.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #7)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:41 PM

InAbLuEsTaTe (23,817 posts)

44. Yeah, so it's on to a billionaire who supported Shrub to save us from The Bern!!

GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:18 PM

underthematrix (5,788 posts)

13. This is the scenario that terrifies me the most.

I just told my husband we may have to switch from Biden to Bloomberg to help keep Bernie from becoming the nominee. But if we lose then we have to do what we've committed to do. Vote for the Dem nominee, no matter who.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to underthematrix (Reply #13)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:22 PM

mysteryowl (6,264 posts)

19. Or, believe in democracy.

I think it is time for a true progressive. We have not had one for many, many years.

I like Warren, but if she does not pull it off, I will vote for Bernie.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to mysteryowl (Reply #19)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:25 PM

Demsrule86 (65,351 posts)

24. And Trump gets four more years as and likely wins the house.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #24)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:34 PM

mysteryowl (6,264 posts)

34. No, we most certainly do NOT want that!!!

I believe a progressive can win.

One gauge I have is the amount of money Bernie raises. 25 million in January and I read that amount was more than any other candidate raised in 3 months. My other gauge is the rally turn out for Bernie and enthusiasm.

We all are really scared! We all want this 2020 election to remove Trump. Even if I am not a Bernie person, I can see what is happening with his campaign.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to mysteryowl (Reply #34)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:35 AM

Demsrule86 (65,351 posts)

89. I don't believe Sanders can win a general. He has my vote in the

general but not in a primary. I want to win.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #24)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:41 PM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

42. If Republicans actually thought they had a chance at winning back the House

they wouldn't be retiring in droves and massively losing in fundraising.

The young voters were the biggest voting block in the 2018 midterms.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #42)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:52 PM

mysteryowl (6,264 posts)

60. That is reassuring, thanks.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to mysteryowl (Reply #60)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:33 AM

Demsrule86 (65,351 posts)

86. That was before impeachment. We have moderates in the House who gave us

a majority in 18. And Trumps numbers are up. I still think impeachment may have been a mistake politically. God knows Trump deserved to be impeached but at what cost? Moderate Democrats could lose and if they do, we lose the house. We need a moderate nominee with coattails.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #86)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:10 AM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

102. Yes. Makes utter sense. But you know, sense is not all that welcome.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to emmaverybo (Reply #102)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:20 PM

Demsrule86 (65,351 posts)

118. I kind of discovered that with my post...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #42)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:19 AM

Demsrule86 (65,351 posts)

78. They didnt as anticipate we might be foolish enough to nominate someone

who will not only not lose the presidency but also has no coattails down ballot. Sanders has my vote of course in a general. But I hope he is not the nominee.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #78)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:24 AM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

82. Of course they did.

Trump is on an audio recording with Lev Parnas talking about his fears of going up against Bernie Sanders.

Bernie has more support from both sides of the aisle than Biden does. Most Republicans are not going to vote for a Democrat. Right-leaning Independents are most likely going to vote for Trump. Everyone else will vote for whoever the Dem nominee is. And only Bernie can win the young vote and the 50% who didn't vote in 2016. He also wins the Latino vote.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #82)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:41 AM

redstateblues (10,554 posts)

93. Bernie was supposed to drive a huge turnout in Iowa. Didn't happen

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to redstateblues (Reply #93)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:53 AM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

98. Iowa is 90% white and Biden came in 4th place.

He even lost the African American vote to Bernie by double digits.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #82)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:45 AM

Demsrule86 (65,351 posts)

96. Oh please, he feared Biden and says all sorts of nice things about Sanders

at least for now...The young don`t vote in sufficient numbers for us to win by counting on them to relace vote we lose by nominating Sanders.... we d ome lose AA vote which we can't win without. We already saw the dismal turnout numbers in Iowa. There is no expansion of the ` base` with Sanders and he will lose voters we desperately need to win the presidency, keep the house, and win the Senate. He has my vote in a general but I think we lose badly.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to underthematrix (Reply #13)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:27 PM

emmaverybo (8,143 posts)

27. Well, this is what stock holders do when the news is bad. Then the news gets worse. Why don't you

wait a bit? Biden leads, according to polling, in TEN states after NV. That’s a lot of delegates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to emmaverybo (Reply #27)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:36 PM

underthematrix (5,788 posts)

38. Oh at this point I'm still very much in the Biden camp but if the winds shift

we'll have to shift. We're practical voters.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to underthematrix (Reply #13)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:42 PM

InAbLuEsTaTe (23,817 posts)

46. We'll save you a spot on the Bernie Bandwagon!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to InAbLuEsTaTe (Reply #46)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:04 AM

underthematrix (5,788 posts)

66. I'll never get on his bandwagon but I will definitely vote for him if he's the nominee

That's my commitment to all those precious babies in cages and all my fellow Americans who I care deeply about.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to underthematrix (Reply #66)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:08 AM

InAbLuEsTaTe (23,817 posts)

72. Fair enough!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:28 PM

blm (110,709 posts)

29. Biden and Pete's fall strategy worked great.

Bernie thanks you. Couldn’t be doing it without the big lift from Joe and Pete’s camps spending 3months attacking Warren while laying off Sanders.

Shortsighted and cynical is not an attractive combination.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to blm (Reply #29)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:43 PM

InAbLuEsTaTe (23,817 posts)

52. YOU SAID IT!!

Best of luck to your candidate though... love Elizabeth, as you can prolly tell!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:43 PM

jalan48 (13,513 posts)

50. Prepare the fainting couches!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to jalan48 (Reply #50)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:48 PM

Scurrilous (38,676 posts)

57. I've discovered what makes Bernie supporters faint/run the fuck away: facts and numbers.

Here you go. Enjoy.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Scurrilous (Reply #57)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:02 AM

jalan48 (13,513 posts)

64. Ah declare, Bernie might win. Egads!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to jalan48 (Reply #64)

Scurrilous This message was self-deleted by its author.

Response to jalan48 (Reply #64)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:27 PM

Demsrule86 (65,351 posts)

119. No, Anyone in their right mind knows Sanders is 1 billion times better than Trump...the issue is

while Sanders can possibly win a primary( I still have my doubts) many including me, think he loses a general, endangers the house and can't help with the Senate. If I thought Sanders would beat Trump, I would vote for him in the primary and the general...but I don't. So Sanders gets my vote only in the General...and I will do what I can to see that we have a different nominee.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #119)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:47 PM

jalan48 (13,513 posts)

120. I disagree. People want change, we saw it in the Republican primary four years ago. I

think Democrats trying to prop up the status quo are doomed to failure.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to jalan48 (Reply #120)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:59 PM

Demsrule86 (65,351 posts)

121. Please stop with the status quo stuff...Trump is the status quo and no Democrat wants that.

We are doomed to failure if we nominate someone who is too left to win in a moderate left country.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #121)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:02 PM

jalan48 (13,513 posts)

122. Please stop with the naivete. Bernie or Warren are the only ones who stand a chance of beating Trump

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to jalan48 (Reply #122)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 06:26 PM

Demsrule86 (65,351 posts)

131. They have no chance of beating Trump...

wishful thinking. I doubt Warren will make it much past New Hampshire...as for Sanders...I will vote for Bloomberg If I have to and so will others who want trump gone. If Sanders made it to the general, he has my vote but never in a primary. I would add one thing Warren with a good VP who can get AA voters and the blue wall states...could win. Sanders...no.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #131)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 07:42 PM

jalan48 (13,513 posts)

133. Joe lacks the sizzle and Bloomberg-well, why would a voter be motivated to vote for not only

a billionaire, but a billionaire who was once a Republican and spoke at the 2004 Republican convention supporting Bush and Cheney? That is wishful thinking.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to jalan48 (Reply #50)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:10 AM

InAbLuEsTaTe (23,817 posts)

74. LMFAO!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!

Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 11:59 PM

Laura PourMeADrink (40,719 posts)

63. Ugh.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:12 AM

greenjar_01 (6,477 posts)

75. We're going to lose bad

Make plans. Save yourselves and your families.

I'm serious.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to greenjar_01 (Reply #75)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:21 AM

Hekate (81,686 posts)

80. That's a bit over wrought, greenjar_01

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to Hekate (Reply #80)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:23 AM

greenjar_01 (6,477 posts)

81. Perhaps

I remember reading Camus' "The Plague" in high school, and the thing that stuck with me was everybody ignoring the deadly emergency at the beginning. "it's not really happening" is pretty close to "That's a bit overwrought..."

Eat drink and be merry.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:45 AM

EveHammond13 (2,855 posts)

95. then 4 more years of trump

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to EveHammond13 (Reply #95)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 12:49 AM

OliverQ (3,363 posts)

97. There is no reason to assume that.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Reply #97)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:28 AM

EveHammond13 (2,855 posts)

106. we are fucked.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 06:55 AM

MFM008 (19,693 posts)

115. If Sanders

Is the nominee I will vote for him.
Just like i voted for Dukakis
Who he will mirror election night.
8 to 10 states.
At least im sure Washington State will stay
Democratic.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 09:16 AM

LanternWaste (37,748 posts)

117. And last month, a Bernie suRgE!!!! was predicted too. This prophecy seems just as viable.

But sure... it's comforting to tell ourselves that the first two steps in a marathon determines the victor.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:09 PM

honest.abe (7,114 posts)

124. Honest.Abe predicts Nate will have a Super Tuesday fail.

There is no way Bernie wins the southern states. He will be lucky to even break the 15% rule in many places.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:16 PM

Malmsy (243 posts)

125. Yes!!!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 01:31 PM

Loki Liesmith (4,597 posts)

126. Settle down

The error bars on the model are huge right now.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Fri Feb 7, 2020, 04:37 PM

BlueIdaho (12,949 posts)

129. Kinda like the Biden win he predicted

the day before the Iowa Caucus? Good luck with that.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Democratic Primaries (Forum)

Nate Silver predicts Bernie Super Tuesday dominance

1. When is super Tuesday?

2. I'm gonna guess it's on a Tuesday

5. Lol, I guess I should have googled!

3. March 3

6. Ty!

20. Earlier iteration.

16. Ha!

31. ///

76. It's kind of bizarre.

92. Yeah..Someone tweeted that maybe something was wrong with him and could someone check.

110. Nuts! And wrong! Thank you. I did not know HOW it was nuts until you posted. Infuriating.

112. I'm assuming his model is factoring in poll changes based on expected earlier results.

4. obviously if he "dominates " on Super Tuesday.

8. If he is the nominee democracy will be on life support

14. It's weird that so many people say that.

40. Why did Sanders supporters do just that in 2016 GE?

128. This one didn't This one voted for Clinton.

130. Most of us did

116. Biden supporters aren't the problem...

127. I know erstwhile Republicans that support Sanders.

132. And another reminder...

18. I disagree.

22. Based on what? Bernie has the most enthusiastic

35. LOL Wrong.

36. But but but it's BERRRRNNNIIIIEEE!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!!

61. I like Bernie and elizabeth

10. It's total bullshit.

21. Thank you. Amazing how easily Biden is dismissed over two little white states when,

28. Bernie won over 30% of the minority vote in Iowa.

39. LMFAO!! There goes that talking point!! BOOOOOOOOMMM!!

48. Care to share the link to that?

47. Link?

51. LOL

58. Criminal of Silver to make this pronouncement about Bernie, which flies in the face of common

54. A couple dozen people, then?

56. How many "minority" people, slamming them all together, do you think even caucused in

109. Absolutely right. I thought that Iowa was 91 + percent white. 4% African American but

55. Biden has been dismissed from the same usual supporters since he entered the race

25. Biden just got destroyed in Iowa.

41. Yup Yup!! It's 1988/2008 deja vu all over again!!

59. Bernie blew the bank and wasted the efforts of 25,000 people to get .55% of delegates needed to win.

113. As Bernie just raised more money in a month than the others did in 3..

114. Kep donating and praying the communist stuff doesn't come out.

62. The states don't get any bigger or more diverse because you depict Biden's falling behind in them

85. Bernie crushed your candidate as well. If she doesn't make top 2 in her neighboring

87. Yup, he did.

100. Wrong. Biden was just endorsed by the IBEW Union.

103. And you think the white guy bragging

104. The white guy was Obama's VP. I won't go over the obvious

105. What does being a small state have to do with Biden's electability?

107. Really? Now you're stretching. I'm in California

111. It all boils down to the delegate count.

45. Biden was vice president for 8 years to the most popular president in recent history.

84. And come Tuesday he will lose more support

94. I don't think so.

7. Not hard to predict. Biden is collapsing & Mayor Pete will struggle in a lot of these states.

9. If Biden collapses

30. Me, too.

37. Really? Because Wisconsin has a long history of being pro-Socialism

49. +10,000,000

53. Bernie *is* a socialist. He's said so.

77. +10000

69. There's a difference between calling Sanders a socialist and calling Bloomberg one.

88. I will as well. Bernie can't win the GE

32. So you want another out of touch billionaire

68. Doesn't seem out if touch to me.

90. He was a very effective Mayor of the largest city in the US

123. I'm not saying I want him at this point

65. Me too!!! And both my sisters! Love the way he gets

108. My mother is voting Bloomberg

11. Since you actually are not supporting Biden, as you believe he is "collapsing," why don't you choose

15. He's full of it.

26. Nah

83. I have never seen any candidate's supporter describe with such certainty the premature demise

91. I've never seen a candidate come in a distant third or fourth in either IA or NH and win the nom

99. Thought he's toast immediately following a less than stellar night at Tuesday's debate. Are you

17. I still support Biden but I can read the writing on the walls.

71. +1.

73. I admire your intellectual honesty... respect!!

53. Bernie is a socialist. He's said so.