Nate Silver predicts Bernie Super Tuesday dominance

[OliverQ]

[Happyhippychick]

1. When is super Tuesday?

[unblock]

2. I'm gonna guess it's on a Tuesday

Ok, ok...

March 3

[Happyhippychick]

5. Lol, I guess I should have googled!

[OliverQ]

3. March 3

[Happyhippychick]

6. Ty!

[Scurrilous]

20. Earlier iteration.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=481235

[mysteryowl]

16. Ha!

I have asked similar questions with obvious answers.

[Scurrilous]

31. ///

Last edited Tue Feb 11, 2020, 04:28 AM - Edit history (1)

H

[TwilightZone]

76. It's kind of bizarre.

There doesn't seem to be valid reasons behind the switch, which is exceedingly un-Nate-like.

I don't really get it. He's normally over-cautious, not throw-caution-to-the-wind.

[Scurrilous]

92. Yeah..Someone tweeted that maybe something was wrong with him and could someone check.

He was giving states like Tennessee, Alabama, and Oklahoma to Bernie defying all logic and poll history. Bernie is 5th in Oklahoma. He's behind by 20 or more in all those states. He gave both of Warren's states to him. Mass. where he's actually third and Minn. where he's fourth. It was bizarre. Why would a second place Iowa .finish impact for him but not a first place finish for Buttigieg? Crazy

[emmaverybo]

110. Nuts! And wrong! Thank you. I did not know HOW it was nuts until you posted. Infuriating.

[Kentonio]

112. I'm assuming his model is factoring in poll changes based on expected earlier results.

So a strong win in NH leading to a good win in NV, leading to a strong second place in SC, creating a big bump going into Super Tuesday.

Just a guess on my part, and if I'm right it still doesn't account for unexpected events of course, but it seems the only way to explain what he's predicting. Especially if a good showing with AA voters in SC had a knock-on effect in other heavily AA states.

[evertonfc]

4. obviously if he "dominates " on Super Tuesday.

He would be the nominee.

[calguy]

8. If he is the nominee democracy will be on life support

Because trump will win a landslide victory.

[Gore1FL]

14. It's weird that so many people say that.

Why do you feel Biden supporters would disloyally fail to rally around our party's nominee?

[sheshe2]

40. Why did Sanders supporters do just that in 2016 GE?

Gore1FL
14. It's weird that so many people say that.

Why do you feel Biden supporters would disloyally fail to rally around our party's nominee?

Three or more of his top advisors voted Green. HE HIRED THEM. They voted for Stein. Nina is proud to be one of them. True Democrats will rally around the winner. Sanders supporters...nope. They will do just what they did last time, vote third party or sit home and whine.

I am sorry, Gore...this is a well known fact.

[Gore1FL]

128. This one didn't This one voted for Clinton.

I expect Biden supporters to support the Democrat nominee despite the hand-wringing to the contrary.

[democrattotheend]

130. Most of us did

The vast majority of us voted for Hillary. More than the percentage of Hillary supporters who voted for Obama in 2008, I believe. Many of us also donated and/or campaigned for her. But a small but vocal minority gave us all a bad name.

[brooklynite]

116. Biden supporters aren't the problem...

We don't win with just Democrats. We have to appeal to a share of Independents and moderate Republicans as well, esp. in PA, Mi and Wi.

Reminder, when we won in 2018, we did so with moderate candidates in suburban districts, not AOC-types.

[Gore1FL]

127. I know erstwhile Republicans that support Sanders.

Maybe we should concentrate on getting the vote of people we agree with rather than those who think Reagan and the confederacy were good ideas.

[Doremus]

132. And another reminder...

when we lost in 2016 we did so because of 80k disaffected blue collars in the rust belt.

[mysteryowl]

18. I disagree.

[OliverQ]

22. Based on what? Bernie has the most enthusiastic

base, the best ground game, the best policies, and the best ability to unite both young and older.

Nobody is enthusiastic about Biden, most young voters will probably not vote for him, and he's going to have to face the Ukraine scandal that Trump created for him, which is going to get worse based on what the Treasury is now doing.

[Scurrilous]

35. LOL Wrong.

Link to tweet

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

36. But but but it's BERRRRNNNIIIIEEE!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[jimfields33]

61. I like Bernie and elizabeth

But I just thought of one negative for the ticket. 2 republican senators! We won’t gain the senate for sure. Both Vermont and Massachusetts have Republican Governors.

[Scurrilous]

10. It's total bullshit.

Biden is ahead in 10 upcoming primaries after NH. Warren in two. Bernie in 5. Three of the ones he has Bernie winning have recent polls showing Bernie 20 or more points behind. Bernie is 5th in one, 4th in one, and 3rd in another. Poll numbers on 538 disprove all of this. A joke.

[emmaverybo]

21. Thank you. Amazing how easily Biden is dismissed over two little white states when,

as you say, he leads in TEN upcoming primaries after New Hampshire. And still runs far ahead with AA voters.

[OliverQ]

28. Bernie won over 30% of the minority vote in Iowa.

Biden only got like 17%. Bernie also has stronger Latino support than Biden and Bernie wins among younger AA voters.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

39. LMFAO!! There goes that talking point!! BOOOOOOOOMMM!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[sheshe2]

48. Care to share the link to that?

[sheshe2]

47. Link?

[Scurrilous]

51. LOL

Link to tweet

Biden is ahead in 10 post NH states, Bernie 5, and Warren 2.

Biden has 48% of black vote. Bernie has 17%. Bernie is way behind in southern states. In Florida he's behind by 20 in a poll posted today. After NH Bernie will be out of tiny white states to win. It will suck for him.

[emmaverybo]

58. Criminal of Silver to make this pronouncement about Bernie, which flies in the face of common

sense and his own polls.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

54. A couple dozen people, then?

Iowa is blindingly white.

[emmaverybo]

56. How many "minority" people, slamming them all together, do you think even caucused in

Iowa? How many POC (are you counting Asian, Arabic?) and AA people does 30 percent represent?
Check out Bernie’s numbers with AA voters nation-wide. Biden has 15 endorsements from members of the CBC to Bernie’s how many?

You can’t spin away Bernie’s lack of AA support by subbing in Iowa “minorities” or Hispanic people.

[demgrrrll]

109. Absolutely right. I thought that Iowa was 91 + percent white. 4% African American but

AA make up 26 % of the Iowa prison population and if you are a felon you can never vote in Iowa.

[still_one]

55. Biden has been dismissed from the same usual supporters since he entered the race

[OliverQ]

25. Biden just got destroyed in Iowa.

He's going to get destroyed in New Hampshire. His support is going to tank. People are already moving to Pete and Bloomberg because they know Biden is going to lose. The only other candidate who can come anywhere close to making up that gap is Bernie.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

41. Yup Yup!! It's 1988/2008 deja vu all over again!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[Scurrilous]

59. Bernie blew the bank and wasted the efforts of 25,000 people to get .55% of delegates needed to win.

Celebrate! As I said, tougher days ahead for the rapidly diminishing revolution.

[Kentonio]

113. As Bernie just raised more money in a month than the others did in 3..

I think 'blowing the bank' is not a major issue at this point.

[Scurrilous]

114. Kep donating and praying the communist stuff doesn't come out.

[emmaverybo]

62. The states don't get any bigger or more diverse because you depict Biden's falling behind in them

as his being “destroyed.” After NH, Biden leads in TEN delegate-rich states. These are states where Bernie has an uphill battle.

[redstateblues]

85. Bernie crushed your candidate as well. If she doesn't make top 2 in her neighboring

State she may be done

[OliverQ]

87. Yup, he did.

I think Warren is unlikely to win the nomination and Bernie will be my 2nd choice.

[R B Garr]

100. Wrong. Biden was just endorsed by the IBEW Union.

That’s a big deal. No need to diminish that with a Whatabout.

People know the difference between lily-white states and diversity. Iowa and New Hampshire are white states. Everyone knows this.

[OliverQ]

103. And you think the white guy bragging

about his electability coming in 4th in a very White state and losing the minority vote is a good thing?

How is Biden electable if he can't win the White vote, the black vote, the Latino vote, or the youth vote?

[R B Garr]

104. The white guy was Obama's VP. I won't go over the obvious

about that, but Iowa is not a diverse state.

Bernie campaigned for 5 years and lost support. Two small white states don’t really impress those of us from big diverse states.

[OliverQ]

105. What does being a small state have to do with Biden's electability?

He lost the white vote and the minority vote. How does that translate into winning those categories in bigger states?

[R B Garr]

107. Really? Now you're stretching. I'm in California

and don’t hang out with rural corn farmers. C’mon now. Think about it. Every state has demographics.

[ahoysrcsm]

111. It all boils down to the delegate count.

Sanders wasted too much money going after Iowa. He should have gone for delegate rich states. Steyer is making the same mistake in Nevada.

[Tiggeroshii]

45. Biden was vice president for 8 years to the most popular president in recent history.

There is no reason he should have come in forth in the first state of the process, especially if "electability" is his central argument.

[FreeState]

84. And come Tuesday he will lose more support

Pete is tied with him in today’s NH tracking poll. Pete’s gained 4 points a day since Monday. At this rate Pete will win NH and Bernies mojo will slide.

[Scurrilous]

94. I don't think so.

People are going to change their vote based on tiny white NH. Biden's base is waiting for him. They're ready to vote and totally pissed at the hype. Pete and Bernie have no chance to switch the black vote. None. They're faithful to Biden. Bernie is still behind in every southern state w/ Pete way back. That will never change. Congrats on the win today.

Also..for the devotees of early white state primacy, Bill Clinton didn't win until the 6th primary in '92. He started his run with Georgia, the South.

The South -

Alabama - Biden +21%

Florida - Biden +15.7 Average +20 Latest

Georgia - +14.7% Ave. +19% Latest

Miss. Biden +26%

Missouri - Biden +25% Sanders 5th

N. Carolina - Biden +9.7% Ave, +9 Latest

S. Carolina - Biden +15.7% Ave, + 18 Latest Sanders 3rd

Tenn. Biden +15 Sanders 3rd

Texas - Biden +6

VA. - Biden +10.1 Ave. +14 Latest

Biden up the entire polled south. NH won't change that.


HailStateForever@PamChas2

Black people are not going to vote for anyone other than Biden in SC at the same rate. They are not focused on two white states, that exclude them. When Biden gets to my state, we will vote for him as well. Buttigieg and Klobuchar won’t gain his support, nor will they last.

BidenFront(Text Join to 30330)@Biden_Front
·
LOL
Yeah that 53 % african american support will just wake up tomorrow and say, damn that almost all white state thinks something else than we do, we better do what they say-said no African American EVER

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Not hard to predict. Biden is collapsing & Mayor Pete will struggle in a lot of these states.

[calguy]

9. If Biden collapses

I'll be supporting Bloomberg.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

30. Me, too.

Anybody but Sanders. Yes, I'd of course vote for him in the general but the socialist label will stick to him like dog shit on a shoe and with about the same smell, and we'll get another four years of Trump.

[OliverQ]

37. Really? Because Wisconsin has a long history of being pro-Socialism

and Bernie polls extremely well there. Guess which swing state is the biggest risk of us losing? Wisconsin.

Every Democrat is going to be called a Socialist, a communist, or some other stupid insult. Anyone that is actually swayed by that was never going to vote for a Democrat anyway. An Iowa voter just abandoned Pete after voting for him because she found out he's gay. Warren is going to get trashed for being a woman and a former Republican. Bloomberg is going to get destroyed for being an out of touch billionaire who is just trying to protect the rich elites and stop and frisk. Young people will never vote for Bloomberg.

Every candidate is going to have something massive used against them.

[Tiggeroshii]

49. +10,000,000

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

53. Bernie *is* a socialist. He's said so.

And he used to be involved with the SWP, which was actually Communist. That will stick to him. They'll call any Democrat (or any person pretending to be one every four years) a socialist, but he's the only one who's actually confessed to it. And he doesn't even seem to understand that the Nordic model he's trying to sell isn't socialist - those countries are constitutional monarchies and parliamentary democracies whose economic systems consist of regulated capitalism with robust social programs (and high taxes).

[emmaverybo]

77. +10000

[TwilightZone]

69. There's a difference between calling Sanders a socialist and calling Bloomberg one.

The former is an identification that the candidate himself has used freely. It's somewhat inaccurate, actually, but Sanders has saddled himself with it nonetheless.

The latter is laughable. No one is going to buy that Bloomberg is a socialist.

[redstateblues]

88. I will as well. Bernie can't win the GE

[OliverQ]

32. So you want another out of touch billionaire

who is going to lose the minority vote by double digits?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

68. Doesn't seem out if touch to me.

[redstateblues]

90. He was a very effective Mayor of the largest city in the US

[calguy]

123. I'm not saying I want him at this point

But I'd rather back a rich billionaire who actually has a good chance to beat trump vs a vulnerable hard left liberal candidate who would get crushed by the GOP hate machine in the general election.
Beating trump is all that matters to me right now.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

65. Me too!!! And both my sisters! Love the way he gets

to trump, since he's so much more successful, decent, and richer.

[xmas74]

108. My mother is voting Bloomberg

In the primary on March 10. She loves him.

[emmaverybo]

11. Since you actually are not supporting Biden, as you believe he is "collapsing," why don't you choose

a candidate you can throw yourself behind? One you think has a chance? As a Biden supporter, I find your doom and gloom comments about his candidacy dispiriting.

[Scurrilous]

15. He's full of it.

[Drunken Irishman]

26. Nah

I'm right, unfortunately. If Biden doesn't turn it around by Tuesday, he's toast.

[emmaverybo]

83. I have never seen any candidate's supporter describe with such certainty the premature demise

of his/her preferred. It is almost as if you want it to happen, as you set the bar initially to be in N.H. and now advance it to the closer debate night. Will that be soon enough for you for Biden to
turn to “toast?”

[Drunken Irishman]

91. I've never seen a candidate come in a distant third or fourth in either IA or NH and win the nom

My pessimism is rooted in the reality that since Iowa, Biden's numbers have slumped and that's just with one shit-show of a caucus hitting him. What's it going to be like when you add a fourth-place showing in New Hampshire? If Biden doesn't turn it around in NH, and again, I am not saying he has to win the dang thing, just prove competitive, he will have to turn around and produce one of the biggest, and most stunning, comebacks in Democratic primary history.

Here's the facts:

2016: Hillary won Iowa, finished second in NH
2008: Obama won Iowa, finished second in NH
2004: Kerry won Iowa and New Hampshire
2000: Gore won Iowa and New Hampshire
1992: Iowa was noncompetitive due to Harkin running, Clinton finished a strong second in NH
1988: Dukakis finished second in Iowa, won New Hampshire
1984: Mondale won Iowa, finished second in New Hampshire
1980: Jimmy Carter won the most committed votes in Iowa, won New Hampshire
1972: George McGovern finished second in New Hampshire

Since the primaries were radically changed prior to the '72 election, no Democrat has ever won the nomination without finishing second or better in New Hampshire.

Biden doesn't need to win New Hampshire. But if these two new polls are right, and he's at 11%, and a distant fourth behind Bernie, Mayor Pete and Warren, he'd have to mount the greatest comeback in primary history to win,

That's why I am so certain that if he flames out in NH (again, not loses, just loses badly), he's pretty much toast.

History might not repeat itself but it often does rhyme and what history tells us is that the nominee is going to be someone who finishes either first or second in New Hampshire - fair or not.

[emmaverybo]

99. Thought he's toast immediately following a less than stellar night at Tuesday's debate. Are you

giving him until N.H. again now?

I am not going to fault your detailed grasp of electoral history, your compelling analysis, but I’d rather a Bernie supporter pronounce Biden half-dead than one of his own.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. I still support Biden but I can read the writing on the walls.

Biden's numbers are bordering on abysmal in New Hampshire and I think he's all but out if he can't finagle a strong finish there.

I've been one of Biden's biggest supporters here, and still support him, but I'm not going to pretend he's not in trouble. He's in big trouble.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

71. +1.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

73. I admire your intellectual honesty... respect!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[Scurrilous]

12. LOL If you are going to persist with this post numbers to back up your claim.

I've seen all the poll numbers today. You are talking out of your [redacted] [redacted].

[Drunken Irishman]

23. Lol okay.

Two new NH polls show Biden now 4th at 11%.

Morning Consult, which has been one of Biden's strongest polls, has him dropping five points since Iowa and now sliding behind Bernie nationally.

Biden is in trouble. I just hope his campaign doesn't bury their heads in the sand like some here or he's going to get worked in NH.

[emmaverybo]

33. He very well may lose this second little homogeneous state. So? He leads in polls in TEN states

after NV. He could still come away with a gold mine in delegates. Your killing him off is premature. I think his campaign is well aware they must step up their game as are supporters.

Biden gave a great town hall since Iowa and has a terrific new ad. He needs to go at Bernie hard now. No more nice guy.

[Drunken Irishman]

43. It's called the domino effect.

It's silly to dismiss it.

We don't know what Biden's lead is in any of these states because we haven't seen polls from 'em since Iowa. The lone poll that was actually out in the field post-Iowa was the PPP poll from North Carolina and Biden leads +9. That's promising. However, the last PPP poll had Biden at +13 a month ago. Biden also went from leading 31-18-8 over Bernie & Bloomberg in that poll to leading now 25-16-14. Biden's lead shrank from +13 to +9 but more troubling is that his overall vote total shrank from 31% to 25% - a six-point drop in less than a month.

That's just comparing a PPP poll to a PPP poll. The last FOX News poll, released in November, had Biden +22!

We don't know what his standing is in almost every one of those states he leads. Even SC is uncertain, as the latest poll there came out the day before the Iowa Caucus.

What we do know is that in every post-Iowa poll, Biden has lost support. He's lost support nationally and he's lost support in New Hampshire (quite a bit, actually) as well as North Carolina.

It doesn't take someone with a political science degree to see that another poor showing in New Hampshire will only continue the polling trend.

[emmaverybo]

70. Yeah. Like the stock market. The people who panic make it worse. Supporters do well to stay steady.

[Drunken Irishman]

79. It's not necessarily panic. It's a realization.

No one likes a loser. It's not fair Iowa and NH went first but we've got to stop pretending these states were that big of a disadvantage for Joe. The problem isn't that Joe lost, though, it's how he lost. Joe consistently out-polled his final result in Iowa for the entire campaign. If he drops to fourth in NH, as two new polls show, that will be two races in a row Biden, who led in many other polls there, has not even been competitive. That opens a lot of questions about his main argument: that he can win.

[emmaverybo]

101. You prosecute your anti-Biden case with skill. This makes for a great closing argument.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

44. Yeah, so it's on to a billionaire who supported Shrub to save us from The Bern!!

GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[underthematrix]

13. This is the scenario that terrifies me the most.

I just told my husband we may have to switch from Biden to Bloomberg to help keep Bernie from becoming the nominee. But if we lose then we have to do what we've committed to do. Vote for the Dem nominee, no matter who.

[mysteryowl]

19. Or, believe in democracy.

I think it is time for a true progressive. We have not had one for many, many years.

I like Warren, but if she does not pull it off, I will vote for Bernie.

[Demsrule86]

24. And Trump gets four more years as and likely wins the house.

[mysteryowl]

34. No, we most certainly do NOT want that!!!

I believe a progressive can win.

One gauge I have is the amount of money Bernie raises. 25 million in January and I read that amount was more than any other candidate raised in 3 months. My other gauge is the rally turn out for Bernie and enthusiasm.

We all are really scared! We all want this 2020 election to remove Trump. Even if I am not a Bernie person, I can see what is happening with his campaign.

[Demsrule86]

89. I don't believe Sanders can win a general. He has my vote in the

general but not in a primary. I want to win.

[OliverQ]

42. If Republicans actually thought they had a chance at winning back the House

they wouldn't be retiring in droves and massively losing in fundraising.

The young voters were the biggest voting block in the 2018 midterms.

[mysteryowl]

60. That is reassuring, thanks.

[Demsrule86]

86. That was before impeachment. We have moderates in the House who gave us

a majority in 18. And Trumps numbers are up. I still think impeachment may have been a mistake politically. God knows Trump deserved to be impeached but at what cost? Moderate Democrats could lose and if they do, we lose the house. We need a moderate nominee with coattails.

[emmaverybo]

102. Yes. Makes utter sense. But you know, sense is not all that welcome.

[Demsrule86]

118. I kind of discovered that with my post...

[Demsrule86]

78. They didnt as anticipate we might be foolish enough to nominate someone

who will not only not lose the presidency but also has no coattails down ballot. Sanders has my vote of course in a general. But I hope he is not the nominee.

[OliverQ]

82. Of course they did.

Trump is on an audio recording with Lev Parnas talking about his fears of going up against Bernie Sanders.

Bernie has more support from both sides of the aisle than Biden does. Most Republicans are not going to vote for a Democrat. Right-leaning Independents are most likely going to vote for Trump. Everyone else will vote for whoever the Dem nominee is. And only Bernie can win the young vote and the 50% who didn't vote in 2016. He also wins the Latino vote.

[redstateblues]

93. Bernie was supposed to drive a huge turnout in Iowa. Didn't happen

[OliverQ]

98. Iowa is 90% white and Biden came in 4th place.

He even lost the African American vote to Bernie by double digits.

[Demsrule86]

96. Oh please, he feared Biden and says all sorts of nice things about Sanders

at least for now...The young don`t vote in sufficient numbers for us to win by counting on them to relace vote we lose by nominating Sanders.... we d ome lose AA vote which we can't win without. We already saw the dismal turnout numbers in Iowa. There is no expansion of the ` base` with Sanders and he will lose voters we desperately need to win the presidency, keep the house, and win the Senate. He has my vote in a general but I think we lose badly.

[emmaverybo]

27. Well, this is what stock holders do when the news is bad. Then the news gets worse. Why don't you

wait a bit? Biden leads, according to polling, in TEN states after NV. That’s a lot of delegates.

[underthematrix]

38. Oh at this point I'm still very much in the Biden camp but if the winds shift

we'll have to shift. We're practical voters.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

46. We'll save you a spot on the Bernie Bandwagon!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[underthematrix]

66. I'll never get on his bandwagon but I will definitely vote for him if he's the nominee

That's my commitment to all those precious babies in cages and all my fellow Americans who I care deeply about.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

72. Fair enough!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[blm]

29. Biden and Pete's fall strategy worked great.

Bernie thanks you. Couldn’t be doing it without the big lift from Joe and Pete’s camps spending 3months attacking Warren while laying off Sanders.

Shortsighted and cynical is not an attractive combination.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

52. YOU SAID IT!!

Best of luck to your candidate though... love Elizabeth, as you can prolly tell!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[jalan48]

50. Prepare the fainting couches!

[Scurrilous]

57. I've discovered what makes Bernie supporters faint/run the fuck away: facts and numbers.

Here you go. Enjoy.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

[jalan48]

64. Ah declare, Bernie might win. Egads!!

[Demsrule86]

119. No, Anyone in their right mind knows Sanders is 1 billion times better than Trump...the issue is

while Sanders can possibly win a primary( I still have my doubts) many including me, think he loses a general, endangers the house and can't help with the Senate. If I thought Sanders would beat Trump, I would vote for him in the primary and the general...but I don't. So Sanders gets my vote only in the General...and I will do what I can to see that we have a different nominee.

[jalan48]

120. I disagree. People want change, we saw it in the Republican primary four years ago. I

think Democrats trying to prop up the status quo are doomed to failure.

[Demsrule86]

121. Please stop with the status quo stuff...Trump is the status quo and no Democrat wants that.

We are doomed to failure if we nominate someone who is too left to win in a moderate left country.

[jalan48]

122. Please stop with the naivete. Bernie or Warren are the only ones who stand a chance of beating Trump

[Demsrule86]

131. They have no chance of beating Trump...

wishful thinking. I doubt Warren will make it much past New Hampshire...as for Sanders...I will vote for Bloomberg If I have to and so will others who want trump gone. If Sanders made it to the general, he has my vote but never in a primary. I would add one thing Warren with a good VP who can get AA voters and the blue wall states...could win. Sanders...no.

[jalan48]

133. Joe lacks the sizzle and Bloomberg-well, why would a voter be motivated to vote for not only

a billionaire, but a billionaire who was once a Republican and spoke at the 2004 Republican convention supporting Bush and Cheney? That is wishful thinking.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

74. LMFAO!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

63. Ugh.

[greenjar_01]

75. We're going to lose bad

Make plans. Save yourselves and your families.

I'm serious.

[Hekate]

80. That's a bit over wrought, greenjar_01

[greenjar_01]

81. Perhaps

I remember reading Camus' "The Plague" in high school, and the thing that stuck with me was everybody ignoring the deadly emergency at the beginning. "it's not really happening" is pretty close to "That's a bit overwrought..."

Eat drink and be merry.

[EveHammond13]

95. then 4 more years of trump

[OliverQ]

97. There is no reason to assume that.

[EveHammond13]

106. we are fucked.

[MFM008]

115. If Sanders

Is the nominee I will vote for him.
Just like i voted for Dukakis
Who he will mirror election night.
8 to 10 states.
At least im sure Washington State will stay
Democratic.

[LanternWaste]

117. And last month, a Bernie suRgE!!!! was predicted too. This prophecy seems just as viable.

But sure... it's comforting to tell ourselves that the first two steps in a marathon determines the victor.

[honest.abe]

124. Honest.Abe predicts Nate will have a Super Tuesday fail.

There is no way Bernie wins the southern states. He will be lucky to even break the 15% rule in many places.

[Malmsy]

125. Yes!!!!

[Loki Liesmith]

126. Settle down

The error bars on the model are huge right now.

[BlueIdaho]

129. Kinda like the Biden win he predicted

the day before the Iowa Caucus? Good luck with that.