MSNBC just showed a brand new NH poll with Pete 12 points up and 1

[BootinUp]

behind Bernie.

Biden is down 7.

Can't remember the name of the poll so shoot me. I think it was suffolk something or other.

See post 4 for all the details, thank you to those who posted the info.

[BeyondGeography]

1. Globe/WBZ/Suffolk

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/02/07/metro/pete-buttiegieg-continues-surge-nh-polling/

[FreeState]

2. Thanks!

Was just going to post the link! So exciting As a gay man I never thought I’d see marriage yet alone this!

[BeyondGeography]

3. Not my candidate but that makes me smile

[flotsam]

19. I would rather my candidate of choice be right rather than gay

The fact he is both is merely a bonus.

[Celerity]

4. here: Bernie 23.6, Pete 22.6, Warren 12.6, Biden 10.6, Klobuchar 6.0, Undecided 10.6

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/new-hampshire/2020/2-6-20_final_nh_tracking_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=BF6BEEE041317725242A8B602ECCCE0FCD95BA3B



Statement of Methodology:

The statewide tracking survey of 500 likely Democratic primary voters consists of a two-day rolling average and includes only those respondents who indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the February 11th New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary. The field was conducted February 5-6, 2020, and is based on live telephone interviews. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including geography, gender, and age -- were determined from the 2010 Census, 2018 American Community Survey, and exit polling from like elections. Samples of both standard landline (15 percent) and cell phones (85 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportionate to the number of likely voters expected based on similar open Democratic primaries in past elections. New Hampshire’s 10 counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

[Dem2]

5. Lawrence guessed correctly

Warren in 3rd place, Pete and Bernie essentially tied now.

[FreeState]

6. Pete's gone up 4% a day

He’s likely to over take Bernie at this point

[Dem2]

7. Definitely seems likely with 5 days left

[squirecam]

8. The debate

Will be important....

[femmedem]

16. Welcome back, Celerity!

Good to see you posting again, even if you only stop by occasionally. Exciting week for us Buttigieg supporters!

[Celerity]

18. hellooooo! and thanks, good to be back!

[MBS]

21. Thanks, Celerity!

I've missed you.

[Celerity]

23. awww thanks

[highplainsdem]

9. My guess is some Biden supporters are switching to Buttigieg at least for this one race, to stop

Sanders or at least deny him a victory in NH.

[FreeState]

10. That's part of it

“Among women, Warren is down four points from Wednesday night and Buttigieg is up six.
And among voters over 65, a core source of Biden backers, Buttigieg has doubled his support overnight, a 16 point jump.”

He’s getting support form Warren too.

[highplainsdem]

11. Good for Pete. And I'm glad we're starting to see some of the backlash against Sanders I've

expected.

If I were living in NH now, I'd probably switch from Biden to Buttigieg to help ensure a less leftwing candidate beats Sanders.

I'm really impressed by Pete, though I still think he's a bit too young and lacking in experience. And he doesn't do as well in GE polls against Trump as Biden and Bloomberg do.

But I'll happily support Pete if he becomes the less leftwing alternative to Sanders, who is way too far left.

[HarlanPepper]

14. That's what I'm going to do in my state

I anticipate Bernie being a favorite here since he won last time. I’m sure there will be a couple polls before our primary. I will vote for WHOEVER is in second place in the pre primary polls.

[pfeiffer]

12. Remember..

I say this in a week where there's a harsh truth being ignored about the (Iowa Caucus Results) : No matter who wins, Black voters in SC, CA, MA and MN will determine who wins the Democratic nomination. And the voices who know those voters best should be centered in more discussions.

- Dr. Jason Johnson, 02/06/2020

[brooklynite]

29. The question is: Do AAs not support Pete because they don't like him...

...or because they like Biden better? If the latter, what happens if the Biden campaign falls apart; where do they go?

[unc70]

13. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult.

Interesting piece of their methodology:

"Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult."

Not sure what kind of biases that introduces in their polling.

Think I am overdue for a deep dive into the methodology details for the various polls.

[FreeState]

15. My guess is that would favor Bernie at this point

I’ve seen this tracking poll called the “Bernie friendly” poll more than a few times.

Who knows though - would be nice to see some other polls.

[LanternWaste]

22. Could be because you broaden the word so generously as to render it meaningless

"I don't get all the bernie (sic) hate from you lot..."

Could be because you broaden the definition of the word so generously as to render its meaning anything you want it to mean. Objectively, no Democratic candidates are really hated on DU, simply criticized, and often mocked (but I get that doesn't really play into the Bernie's Martyrdom Routine which has been trending this cycle)

[FreeState]

30. Thanks!

I missed the post... not sure how pointing out a polls is known to possibly be skewed towards one candidate is hate... I voted for Bernie in the 2016 primaries... I like the man, he's just not my candidate.

[scheming daemons]

24. Ghandi quote to help explain it:

“I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians. Your Christians are so unlike your Christ.”



For me ... it is that so many of his supporters are insufferable.

"I like Bernie, I do not like his supporters. His supporters are so unlike Bernie."

[grossproffit]

17. YAY!!

[Cuthbert Allgood]

25. Iowa was huge for Pete.

I, personally, don't think he can keep up the momentum, but I've been horribly wrong before. NH will be interesting.

[calguy]

26. Glad to see it

The most important factor for me is that Sanders is losing ground. Although I like Pete I don't think he can win against trump and think he fades as we get into the more diverse states coming up. Will have to see how Joe does as we get more into it. I'm not even close to writing off Joe Biden at this point.

[Chemisse]

27. I am so delighted to see Pete shoot up in polls.

What this means over the long run, I don't know. Pundits say he can't take the place of Biden with the moderate vote, but stranger things have happened.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

28. I don't think mayor Pete will do well in the south

But (not happening yet) I would support Pete over Sanders and Warren. The others have no chance.