538 and Iowa: What a crock.

[denem]

538:What a difference Iowa makes?

Here's what 538 said in January

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-the-front-runner-but-there-is-no-clear-favorite/

And here's what they are saying today

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-what-the-first-few-post-iowa-polls-say/

538 are treating Iowa as a split decision / tie
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-might-have-screwed-up-the-whole-nomination-process/

But now have Buttigieg's chances down to 3%.
Bullshit.

[TexasTowelie]

1. Agreed.

The status of the race doesn't change that drastically with only one caucus with dubious results.

[squirecam]

5. Yep

Nt

[Jarqui]

2. This is stupid

To use something they can relate to: the data sampling size is too tiny to draw any meaningful conclusions like the above at this point.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. In other words, nobody knows what the hell is going on

or what will happen.

This election is squirrelier than ever. It's a whole flock of black swans.

[denem]

4. +1

That's how I see it.

[still_one]

7. Thank-you. Well said

[Scurrilous]

14. I miss the old days.

2008.

[Scurrilous]

6. The bros are buying it.

Then again, they bought free everything too.

This one has Bernie in third. LOL

Link to tweet

[Quixote1818]

8. That was correct based on polling on Jan. 10th when Biden was leading. It narrowed a lot

and and had Sanders ahead by the end of January. It's just like during a football game. If one team gets up by a couple of touchdowns then their chance of winning goes way up in the middle of the game based on past models of how many teams that were up by that amount at that time ended up winning but it's just a model and as the polling changes the model changes. It's why polling firms really try to get the last poll they take right because that is the one they will be judged by NOT the one 20 days in advance.

So yes, a lot can happen in the next few months but their models are based on past elections and what occurred after someone won or came close in Iowa and others under performed. Currently betting markets favor Sanders to win most of the states but they also give him a less than 50% chance of getting the nomination. So there are a lot of variables and they know a lot can happen as time passes. How many times has it rained when there was only a 20% chance of rain? Well, probably about 20% of the time it does even though there was an 80% chance it wasn't going to rain. They are only educated guesses based on modeling.

[denem]

9. And Buttigieg got no lift at all for (partially ) winning Iowa?

4% on caucus night, 3% today?

[Awsi Dooger]

10. I don't know why you bother explaining everything

Situational factors and shifts are not recognized or even considered by the vast majority. All they want is for someone to be proclaimed 90% certain and then that 90% favorite to win every time.

As a gambler for 36 years let me put it this way...538 made political wagering a hell of a lot more difficult. The respected markets follow their numbers and use their odds. Prior to that it was a comedy act of subjectively inept conclusions. I had a field day taking tiny favorites that should have been massive favorites. Nate Silver and 538 eliminated those bargains. That's largely why I shifted to the stock market so heavily instead of continuing to focus on sports and political odds.

I have to laugh every time someone knocks 538. Praising Rachel Maddow and ripping Nate Silver. That's the greatest combo of all time. She waves a poll in the air and chirps chirps chirps with a huge grin and no concept whatsoever that her cherry picked poll doesn't even threaten to align with the true status of the race in that state.

[denem]

11. Maybe you can explain why Buttigieg had 4% caucus night, and 3% now.

[Tiggeroshii]

15. He is not gaining any ground in more diverse states yet and he did not outright win

Iowa by 538 standards. They explained that an outright win would have put him up to 10%, but mixed results would keep him around the same. If he had lost Iowa, then they would have put him at 0. Also Bernie is polling very well among POC in a way that Pete just hasn't quite managed yet. If polls show that he will however, then that could change the forecast substantially. Remember Biden is still getting the bulk of his support from before, just ot as much as it used to be.

[denem]

16. Biden is no HRC.

HRC had both Obama and the Clinton's history with the AA community to draw on and Sanders is doing better with black voters this time. Biden has a steep climb ahead of him IMO.

[Tiggeroshii]

18. But him and pete seem to be taking just enough support

From each other to give Bernie a clear path to victory. However if pete wins NH, -and is declared the winner in iowa, I suspect he could slowly pave a path for himself

[denem]

20. As I said below, HRC won 88% of the AA vote all up, according to exit polls,

and needed nearly all of it to defeat Sanders. Bernie has a path to victory, but I suspect the DNC will swing hard behind Bloomberg. If so, the nomination will be won on the white vote, and Sanders has some real meat on the plate, talking about the 'billionaire class'.

[Tiggeroshii]

21. That sounds right

Bloomberg is a losing bet all the way. Thing is, I think the vast majority of Biden supporters will support Bernie if Biden is no longer in the race, so that too will add to the advantage Bernie will have as well as what you mentioned. Overall it so far seems like a good situation for Bernie.

[denem]

12. Crickets?

That's what the OP was about. No bump (at all) for Buttigieg from Iowa. Moving up in the polls, and down on 538.

[denem]

17. I keep saying Biden is no HRC.

HRC had both Obama, and the the Clintons legacy to draw on. According to exit polls HRC won 88% of the AA vote all up, and needed nearly all it to knock Sanders out of the race.

[Scurrilous]

22. He won't need Hillary's numbers. It's not a two person race.

A new economist national aggregate shows Biden w/ 48% of black vote. Bernie in 3rd with 12%. He was at 20% in 2019. Warren is at 13%. Bernie is losing black support. Biden is holding and others are gaining. So it's different.

The thing I notice is Biden's dominance in 65+ at 37%. Bernie doesn't make the top five. Biden also up in 45 to 64 w/32%. Sanders 3rd w/ 14%. These are the people who vote. And Biden is leading with them.

They have Biden first nationally with 27%, 7% higher than 2nd place Bernie.

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

Biden still picking up support. Wilson is really big in Miami Dade. Huge pick up.

Biden picks up backing from 4 more black lawmakers

'Reps.A quartet of black lawmakers endorsed Joe Biden for president on Tuesday, giving the former vice president his 15th endorsement from the influential Congressional Black Caucus.

Reps. Frederica Wilson and Alcee Hastings of Florida, Donald Payne Jr. of New Jersey and Sanford Bishop of Georgia each backed Biden in a joint statement first obtained by POLITICO, casting him as the candidate who can beat President Donald Trump in November and unify the nation.and Alcee Hastings of Florida, Donald Payne Jr. of New Jersey and Sanford Bishop of Georgia each backed Biden in a joint statement first obtained by POLITICO, casting him as the candidate who can beat President Donald Trump in November and unify the nation.'

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/21/biden-endorsement-four-black-lawmakers-101773


And there goes Warren. She said black women were pushy. Things are fluid.

See what it says about primaries and POC? That's everywhere. There is a lot of anger over the media going after Biden. That's their guy. They want to vote for him.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Tiggeroshii]

19. You mention he can't win OK

Not true.