Buttigieg surging in NH, Warren now in the Top Three.

[bluewater]

Link to tweet

Amazing surge by Buttigieg at +12 moves him 1% behind Sanders who had no change.

A large drop for Biden (-7) allows Warren to slip into 3rd place by holding steady.

Yes, I highlighted the good news for my candidate. lol

Warren needs to both finish in the top 3 AND beat Biden. This poll has her doing just that.

Will the NH results turn out the same as in Iowa? Seems possible.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. Time will tell! This is fascinating.

[scheming daemons]

2. Hard to see how my candidate survives past Tuesday

I hope she throws her support behind Joe or Pete.

[Laelth]

8. There's plenty of time left.

I don't imagine that any candidate that has made it this far will drop out before Super Tuesday. We shall see what we see, but we've only decided 41 (out of 4,000) delegates at this point, and the final count on those delegates is still up in the air. It is no time to despair.

-Laelth

[scheming daemons]

13. The problem is that the money dries up quickly.....

...if she doesn't finish in the top 3.

[Laelth]

24. Perhaps. But Amy has a good bit in the bank.

She can survive through Super Tuesday. After that, we shall see what we see.

-Laelth

[Garrett78]

3. Biden desperately needs to come in 2nd, or for Buttigieg to win New Hampshire.

He needs a strong showing or for Sanders to lose. Otherwise, I think he's done.

[Laelth]

9. Biden needs to win SC, imo.

If he can do that, he's still in the running, no matter what happens in NH or NV.

-Laelth

[LanternWaste]

11. NH ain't Biden's demographic. Throwing good money after bad ain't rational...

I don't think Biden's campaign is counting on these early, predominantly white states, and I haven't seen any real indications otherwise.

My guess is his campaign takes off when early voting in TN, et. al. begins next week.

[Peacetrain]

29. THIS!!!! Biden has never had the NH vote in my opinion

From day one, NH is not his. God if he did well in NH, the Iowa caucus would be just disappear. I have just never seen it. He has to do well in SC absolutely has to.. NV caucus.. just seems like Bernie or Petes territory. I still think Super Tuesday will sort it all out.. We are going to know here in a few short weeks

[BlueMTexpat]

4. Frankly, I do NOT consider

NH to be a sampling of how real Democrats will vote.

It is an open primary.

If it were a closed primary, it would be MUCH more valid when considering who should be the Democratic nominee.

This is not JMO. It is fact.

[thesquanderer]

7. I think it *is* JYO, and not fact. It's a perfectly reasonably opinion to have. But alternatively...

...you could make the argument that including independents is "more valid when considering who should be the Democratic nominee" IF your goal is to put up a candidate who appeals to Dems and Independents... which, by the way, is what is necessary in order to win in November.

[Peacetrain]

30. Son of a gun.. NH is an open Primary??

[duforsure]

5. Bernie, Pete And Warren will beat up Biden again as his numbers drop even lower ,

And his donors start drying up as more people turn away from him. He's also hurting himself with some of his policies and poor speaking performances. I like Joe , but he'll never be the candidate I think. If he is I 100% would vote for him, or whoever wins the primaries, but he's not my 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice.

[Kentonio]

6. Joe has to turn that around in the next few days or he's done.

You don't come in 4th in the first two races and still come out looking electable.

[Laelth]

10. You do if you're Joe Biden.

He still leads in national polls. Iowa and New Hampshire are not representative of the party as a whole. Biden needs to win South Carolina. If he loses there, he's finished. With that hypothesis I can agree.

-Laelth

[bluewater]

14. What if he also does badly in Nevada?

That comes before SC.

[Laelth]

20. He'll be fine.

And it's likely that Bernie will win in NV. Joe just has to win in SC. If he does, he'll pick up a ton of delegates on Super Tuesday. He and his supporters must simply be patient. It is far too early to panic.

-Laelth

[bluewater]

22. Nevada is only 67% white and has a 9% Black pop too.

The other 25% is Latino and Asian.

If Pete beats Joe in Iowa, the Biden Campaign will have no excuses.

[Kentonio]

16. No you don't.

We’re already hearing reports about his donors getting nervous, he needs a decent finish in NH. Not a win necessarily but certainly not 4th again. If he comes in 4th, panic will start setting in and it bodes very badly for Nevada. He’ll probably win SC regardless of what happens, but his expected massive win there could turn into something much less convincing very quickly if the first three races have all gone very badly.

[Laelth]

21. His funding is the big problem, admittedly.

But a win in SC and a decent showing on Super Tuesday can erase all of the current panic about his campaign. It's still early days in this nomination season.

-Laelth

[Kentonio]

23. True it is, but momentum is real and plays a massive role

He needs some back, badly.

[Laelth]

25. I don't think he will have a good showing until SC.

I don't see Joe gaining any momentum until then. In fact, he should expect defeats in both NH and NV.

-Laelth

[LanternWaste]

12. If those races are predominantly white (as they have been and are) it's a non-issue.

IA was Bernie's to walk away with a commanding victory and he simply dropped the ball. It's not a good sign for his campaign to grade the Minimum Required as excellent.

My guess is Biden will get the EVs as early votes begin in states more representative of the nation as a whole and less homogeneous as are NH and IA.

[bluewater]

15. "my guess"

Well, thanks for being honest about your analysis.

[Kentonio]

17. Biden needs to show he's electable everywhere, not just in the south.

Winning SC after getting blown out in Iowa, NH and Nevada would not convince people he’s the most electable candidate we have.

[bluewater]

19. especialy since Nevada is only 67% white and has a 9% African American pop. too.

And of course, a large Latino population.

If Biden can't win on Nevada, he has no excuse.

[zackymilly]

26. Plus Biden will start losing more donors, and he needs their money to continue on. n/t

[bluewater]

28. It's reported Biden is so short on funds, being able to fly to Super Tuesday States is an issue.

ouch.

[ismnotwasm]

18. Cool!

This is turning out far more interesting than I thought

[at140]

27. In which primary Mike the multi-Billionaire records first win?

With the money he is spending, he is likely to win a few on super Tuesday.