Will it all be over over on Super Tuesday?

[NewsCenter28]

It was over on Super Tuesday in 2000, 2004, and 2016 mathematically but just getting started in 2008. What's the thinking this year? Will we basically know our nominee come the morning of March 4, 2020, or with the field being larger than normal, will it just be getting started like in 2008?

[Sherman A1]

1. Perhaps

Perhaps Not? I wouldn't draw any parallels to previous election cycles I believe as both parties are in the midst of reforming themselves the old rules of thumb do not apply.

[denem]

2. No. Bloomberg is set to get 15+%

Neither Biden nor Sanders are getting more than 30% nationally.

[Kentonio]

3. Not this year I think.

There are two fairly clear ideological sides in play, and neither have a single representative. We have 4-5 serious nominees which (unless we see sudden drop-outs after SC) will see a major split in the vote and probably some surprising results in various states.

There's a few scenarios where it could happen that we have a clear nominee. The only realistic ones I could see though are the moderate wing coalescing around a single candidate before Super Tuesday and Bernie having a really bad day as well, or alternatively Liz dropping out before (or a large chunk of her base moving to Bernie on the back of strong NH/NV/SC results) and Joe, Amy, Pete and Mike spreading the moderate vote so thinly that it allows Bernie to clean the board.

I don't see it personally though. The strong likelihood is that Super Tuesday leads to a narrowing of the field to two candidates, with whoever comes out of that day with a decent lead being the huge favourite.

The wild card though is Bloomberg. If Biden comes out of Super Tuesday with the lead, but Sanders still is within catching range, then Bloomberg dropping out or staying in could determine the eventual winner.

Favoured candidates aside, this years race is absolutely fascinating! Pure political junkie crack!

[Iliyah]

4. I changed from Indie to the Democratic Party . . .

Inasmuch as I truly like HRC, I went with Pres O in 2008. Back then, majority of the news media and even family and friends told me that Americans would not vote for a black man. He persisted, and he won.

One thing I really cherish about the Democratic Party, they are a big tent. They encompass the diversity of what America truly is. Mind you, it can be frustrating sometimes, but hey, that is what democracy is about.