AVERAGE OF NATIONAL POLLS - The Economist Updated today at 3:00am

[Scurrilous]

Who is ahead in the Democratic primary race?

<snip>

"Twenty-eight candidates have thrown their hat into the ring for the Democrats’ presidential nominating contest in 2020. This field, the largest ever, includes United States senators and House representatives, mayors, entrepreneurs and even a self-help guru. Some candidates have already withdrawn. Those who remain are engaged in a battle for the future of the party. This portal will help you keep track of who is winning and who is losing and, perhaps more interestingly, why.

The main differences between the candidates concern government policy. Liberal candidates, such as Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, have embraced ambitious spending programmes to provide universal health care, increase access to higher education and deal with America’s worsening housing crisis. More moderate candidates, such as Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg, have argued that some of these proposals are impractical. They have taken stances that appear more pragmatic given that only one-third of Americans call themselves liberals, according to polling provided to The Economist by YouGov, our pollster, and that Republicans will probably retain control of the Senate after 2020. But the primary is still anyone’s to win.

Here you will find our average of each candidate’s performance in all high-quality, national public opinion polls conducted so far as well as the probability of victory inferred from political betting. You will also find data from YouGov, breaking down support for each candidate by demographic group. Under “Candidates” you will find further demographic data for each contender.

Above, we have calculated support for each candidate by aggregating publicly available, high-quality opinion polls. We include only surveys from pollsters who conduct their interviews over the phone with a live interviewer—rather than with automated machine recording—or that use rigorous and well-documented online methods.'

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

Amazing numbers- 65+ - Biden 37% No Bernie

45 - 64 - Biden 32% Bernie 14% These are the people who vote.

Biden 48% of black vote Warren 13% Bernie 12%

"Since 1980 no Democratic candidate has won the nomination without winning a majority of African-American primary voters."

Let's bring this thing south.

[emmaverybo]

1. Biden still leads. Performance consistent. Strong lead with most reliable voters. We're goin

South, Scurrilous. Bring yer banjo.

[Scurrilous]

2. Looking good. No loss of support from his strengths. Up 7 nationally.

Big endorsements. Frederica Wilson is huge in Miami Dade.

Biden picks up backing from 4 more black lawmakers

'A quartet of black lawmakers endorsed Joe Biden for president on Tuesday, giving the former vice president his 15th endorsement from the influential Congressional Black Caucus.

Reps. Frederica Wilson and Alcee Hastings of Florida, Donald Payne Jr. of New Jersey and Sanford Bishop of Georgia each backed Biden in a joint statement first obtained by POLITICO, casting him as the candidate who can beat President Donald Trump in November and unify the nation."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/21/biden-endorsement-four-black-lawmakers-101773

Link to tweet

[PatSeg]

26. Someone needs to tell the mainstream media

They're ready to read him the last rites. They're acting like after just one caucus, he's already lost. Unfortunately, they could be creating the news, rather than reporting it.

Someone on MSNBC said, there are two lanes - the Bernie lane and the not Bernie lane. In the end though, voters are looking for who can beat Trump first and foremost.

[Mike 03]

3. Reassuring.

[Scurrilous]

4. Yes it was.

Last edited Fri Feb 7, 2020, 09:36 AM - Edit history (3)

I noticed too how the groups Biden did best with, black voters, older voters, less educated voters, were all the groups least likely to caucus. Amazing, finger on the scale guy insisted on a format that helped him and hurt his biggest opponent.

Biden's dominance with black voters was hurt by a caucus in a white state. His dominance with the elderly was hurt by the elimination of absentee ballots, which are used most heavily by the elderly, and by the physically demanding caucus format. Less educated voters are more likely to work in blue collar jobs which are physically demanding, leaving the person tired and unwilling to participate in a caucus. There are articles out there backing all this up. Of course Biden did bad.

I was reading wiki on the Iowa caucus and it noted how their caucus eliminated people who fared badly. Like a reality show. LOL They put out torches. And who participates in this. The fucking media. The day after the caucus a guy on twitter I follow who is really good and has a lot of insight remarked how the media was grumbling out loud on air about how they couldn't talk of who to eliminate because there were no results. They had knives out and no one to kill.

It's like a fucking game. One guy gets anointed and then kill the rest. That's why they're after Biden. He was the chosen one. But he's not playing. Assholes. Screw you and your narrative, your bounce, your snowballing, your white states go first bullshit.

Why Biden? They like to do frontrunners.

'Before the 1972 election, Muskie was viewed as a front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination...'

'The 1972 Iowa caucuses, however, significantly altered the race for the presidential nomination. Senator George McGovern from South Dakota, initially a dark horse candidate, made a strong showing in the caucuses which gave his campaign national attention. Although Muskie won the Iowa caucuses, McGovern's campaign left Iowa with momentum.' Wins but loses. Spin.'

'On the morning of February 26, Muskie gave a speech to supporters outside of the Manchester Union-Leader offices in Manchester, New Hampshire. His speech was viewed as emotional and defensive; he called the newspaper's editor a "gutless coward". Muskie gave the speech during a snowstorm which created the appearance of him crying. Though Muskie later attempted to claim that what had appeared to the press as tears were actually melted snowflakes, the press reported that Muskie broke down and cried, shattering the candidate's image as calm and reasoned.'

Media again, playing kingmaker.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmund_Muskie

That was it for Muskie. Now another frontrunner is in the media's sights.

Found it.

Link to tweet

'The Iowa caucuses are noteworthy as the first major contest of the United States presidential primary season. Although caucus-goers have been unrepresentative of the nation's overall ethnic demographic,caucuses are still seen by some as a strong indicator of how a presidential candidate will do in later contests. This could be seen as a circular argument, however, as the Iowa caucus, as the first, likely strongly influences later races and can provide candidates with momentum going into the following contests. Further, candidates who do poorly in the Iowa caucus are likely to drop out in the following days.'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses

[denem]

5. Biden 48% of black vote, HRC 88%.

[Scurrilous]

8. 2016 - 2 candidates. 2020 - not 2 candidates. Again, not the same.

Last edited Fri Feb 7, 2020, 11:50 AM - Edit history (1)

Biden has 48% of the black vote. That easily beats all of his opponents. Warren 13%, Bernie 12%, Bloomberg 6%, Yang 3%. They only list 5.

[denem]

9. AA voters are supposed to be Biden's Base.

Sanders is getting the same % as 2016. Biden has lost 45% of Hillary's support. Not enough to lock out other candidates in the south. Equals brokered convention. That's the point.

[Scurrilous]

10. OK

No one will get numbers like Hillary. Biden also no. 1 in High School or Less, Some College, 45 - 64, and 65+.

Biden is doing well with black voters in South. (2:00 AM):

Alabama - Biden +21%

Florida - Biden +15.7 Average +20 Latest

Georgia - +14.7% Ave. +19% Latest

Miss. Biden +26%

Missouri - Biden +25% Sanders 5th

N. Carolina - Biden +9.7% Ave, +9 Latest

S. Carolina - Biden +15.7% Ave, + 18 Latest Sanders 3rd

Tenn. Biden +15 Sanders 3rd

Texas - Biden +6

VA. - Biden +10.1 Ave. +14 Latest

[LanternWaste]

11. I get it... relative vs objective ratio sums can be a tough thing to understand. Good luck with it!

[Scurrilous]

14. ..

[Scurrilous]

6. Snowball missed!

Link to tweet

Damn. Third place for the second place Sanders. Brutal. He does not want to face this. LOL

Link to tweet

Replying to @ChrisDJackson and @JoeBiden

In 1992, Bill Clinton got 2,8 % of the Iowa Caucus vote, finished 4th and went on to be both Nominee and defeated a sitting President George HW Bush to become President .

[Scurrilous]

7. More endorsements.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[peggysue2]

28. Joe needs to hold fast

Keep holding on until his favored states swing around, ignore the pundits with their new round of obituaries, and then start knocking it out of the park.

Keep on keeping on. Your supporters are still here, Joe!

[Scurrilous]

29. Yep.

I've been saying the same thing.

[KPN]

12. I don't buy the Zero Bernie for above

65 age group. Something’s amiss. I personally know many above 65 who support Bernie. The data are not representative.

[Scurrilous]

13. I think they listed top 5.

Got a laugh when I googled.

Regularish:


Bernie Sanders struggles to win over older voters

'Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has a major problem on his hands as the Democratic primary unfolds: He lacks support from older voters, a major and loyal voting bloc in the party.

While Sanders has been successful in winning over young voters, both in 2016 and in this year’s primary contest, recent polls show he’s in desperate need of courting seniors.

A Quinnipiac University poll out late last month highlights the conundrum for Sanders, who is 77. Only 4 percent of likely voters over 65 — those in the senator’s age group — support him.'

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/460161-bernie-sanders-struggles-to-win-over-older-voters



As someone called it, Tiger Beat for Bernie:

AMID SOCIAL SECURITY FIGHT, JOE BIDEN IS LOSING GROUND AMONG MIDDLE-AGED AND OLDER VOTERS

'AMID AN ONGOING debate over Joe Biden’s record on Social Security, the former vice president’s support among middle-aged and older Americans is eroding, as his chief rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders, is seeing the first gains among this demographic since he announced his run for president, according to a review of six recently released surveys.

Voters over the age of 65 have long formed the bulk of Biden’s support, while he has done poorly with voters under the age of 30, who lean toward Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Though Biden continues to be older voters’ candidate of choice, that support is beginning to wane. The most recent Siena

College/New York Times survey of likely Iowa caucus-goers found a 17-point swing away from Biden and toward Sanders among those age 45 to 64. Emerson’s survey, meanwhile, found an 11-point swing among voters over 50. The new Fox poll found a 10-point swing nationally to Sanders among voters over 45, and the Monmouth survey found a swing of 9 among voters over 50. WBUR, in New Hampshire, found a 5-point swing toward Sanders with voters over 50 there. A new poll in California, by the LA Times and the University of California, Berkeley, found Biden flat at 22 percent among those 65 and up, but Sanders jumped from 6 to 14 percent since December.'

https://theintercept.com/2020/01/28/joe-biden-older-voters-bernie-sanders/

That's called cherry picking and using crappy polls to catapult a false narrative - propaganda.

The Independent is an average national taken from high quality polling only. Bernie's numbers were probably closer to the Hills (4%).

Older people on fixed incomes don't want to pay more taxes. It's a huge thing with older voters. Biggest issue almost. Hence Bernie's position.

'Above, we have calculated support for each candidate by aggregating publicly available, high-quality opinion polls. We include only surveys from pollsters who conduct their interviews over the phone with a live interviewer—rather than with automated machine recording—or that use rigorous and well-documented online methods./

[KPN]

15. That makes sense -- though I question the 4-percent based on my own anecdotal

info — perhaps it’s locational. At any rate, no question Bernie attracts more young folks. The boomer generation, of which I’m a part, has become disappointing over time.

[Scurrilous]

16. LOL

[Scurrilous]

17. More numbers:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/73jqd6u5mv/econTabReport.pdf

[Cha]

18. Thank you, Scurrilous!

"Since 1980 no Democratic candidate has won the nomination without winning a majority of African-American primary voters."

[Scurrilous]

22. ...

To those obsessing over tiny white state significance.

[Cha]

24. No kidding..

[MineralMan]

19. Well, that's some good news!

[Scurrilous]

23. Yep.

[UniteFightBack]

25. So most people think Biden has the best chance to beat dump....but they won't vote for him. Oh ok.nt

[democratisphere]

27. Looks like the MSM is attempting to get drumpf reelected.

So far the majority of Democrats aren't biting on their BS.