Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumWhat Went Wrong with Biden's Campaign
Political Wire (paywall)Iowa has more counties that flipped from Barack Obama to Donald Trump in the 2016 election than any other state 31 of its 99 counties.
These are exactly the places Biden thought he would win. He targeted his message to blue collar voters, emphasizing his own middle-class upbringing in Pennsylvania and promising that as president he would not ignore their concerns.
This message was core to his electability campaign pitch: That Biden was the best positioned to flip these counties back to the Democrats and defeat Trump in the general election.
But the Iowa results show Biden actually got shellacked in these areas. From results compiled by Steve Kornacki, we find Pete Buttigieg won 21 of the Obama to Trump counties, while Bernie Sanders won seven, Amy Klobuchar won two and Biden prevailed in just one.
The voters Biden thought were his base wanted someone else.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)Biden wasn't expecting to win in Iowa, he probably conceded to at least third. Same thing in New Hampshire - if he finishes as expected third or fourth, will we be asking that question again?
There are still 55 primaries/caucuses, and Biden is expected to with about 30 of them.
What was wrong with the Sanders campaign - they were supposed to win Iowa relatively easily, he lost.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,881 posts)well it wasn't..
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)....those 25,000 garnered a mere 45,000 votes - that's only 1.8 votes per volunteer (over the course of four months)
So who failed in Iowa?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,881 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Not the distant 4th place finish Biden had.
But I understand trying to change the subject is a valid rhetorical technique.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)There were several A rated polls showing Joe in the lead in Iowa.
For example:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/us/politics/joe-biden-iowa-democratic-poll.html
That's the notable A+ rated Monmouth University poll.
https://www.suffolk.edu/news-features/news/2020/01/27/16/49/suffolk-university-usa-today-poll-shows-biden-leading-in-iowa
And that's the noteworthy A- rated Suffolk University poll.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)And more showing him coming in a close second.
Try again, perhaps?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cwydro
(51,308 posts)So apparently he thinks something went wrong also.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MoonlitKnight
(1,584 posts)Had him tied or first. Even more if you consider MOE.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
PatSeg
(47,711 posts)Many candidates have done poorly in Iowa and gone on for quite a long time. A lot depends on how much money they have. Not every candidate is viable in every state during a primary.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)could win. He must be stopped early to give Bernie a chance. Early is the key.
MSM announcing Sanders and Buttigieg for tonights debate as in the top spot now that one caucus, which awards a teensy fraction of delegates, has been held.
Fact is that polls show Biden still leads.
All we need is a Comey. As Biden has said Trump wants to pick the nominee for us. Too bad he gets so much cooperation.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
PatSeg
(47,711 posts)I really shouldn't listen to the TV pundits. They rarely mention the national polls that show Biden in the lead. Also, I've seen most of the candidates being interviewed on various cable news shows, but not Biden. That may be his choice or perhaps no one has bothered to ask him. There just seems to be a dismissive attitude toward him that is not reflected in the polls.
Also, Joe has racked up some really impressive endorsements.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)endorsers who speak to his most undisputed presidential qualifications, his ability to lead and to unify us.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
PatSeg
(47,711 posts)there is a Wikipedia page just for Joe Biden endorsements and they are very impressive.
I was just watching Chris Matthews and it turns out that Joe has been invited to appear on a lot of shows, but until now, he has turned them down. Apparently he is going to be on a Sunday show, but I don't know which one yet.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brooklynite
(94,911 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,881 posts)If something did not work out as predicted, you try a different approach. You just don't keep doing the same thing over and over again looking for a different result
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)....in NH and MA so far this campaign?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brooklynite
(94,911 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,998 posts)Because if he didn't expect it to be reasonably likely that he would come in fourth, then yeah, something went wrong. Did he have different internal polls? Because I didn't see any polls that showed him coming in fourth. (Though there were a couple tied for third.)
But I think the more interesting part of the article isn't how you define whether or not something went wrong, it's that he was supposedly counting on flipping back the Obama-to-Trump counties as a demonstration of his working class appeal (and therefore his November strength against Trump)... and instead those counties overwhelmingly went for Buttigieg (21 of those counties went to Pete, only 1 preferred Joe). It's an interesting analysis which implies that, based on what Biden considered an important metric, Pete actually ended up, not just with more appeal than Biden, but also with more appeal than all the other candidates combined.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bradshaw3
(7,541 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kaleva
(36,384 posts)"On the trail in New Hampshire Wednesday, Joe Biden called the early results from the Iowa caucuses a "gut punch."
"I'm not gonna sugarcoat it. We took a gut punch in Iowa," Biden said. "The whole process took a gut punch."
Biden finished fourth in Monday's caucuses, the first voting contest of the 2020 election."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-iowa-calls-caucus-results-a-gut-punch/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Voltaire2
(13,244 posts)We have real experts here who know better than that guy.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MontanaMama
(23,366 posts)Polls are not to be trusted imho. Its a lesson we havent learned. Eyes on the prize.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
randr
(12,418 posts)He acted like the nom was his. Never established clear ideas for substantive issues and side stepped a serious attack on Trump.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
PatSeg
(47,711 posts)He presented very clear ideas on substantive issues. The media often ignores Biden, unless Trump and the republicans are attacking him.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)him. Seldom praised.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FloridaBlues
(4,013 posts)No candidate should be as the old saying goes "count your chickens before they hatch".
We have a long way to go.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
PatSeg
(47,711 posts)I'm hearing that in the background right now. I take some comfort that in years past, the pundits were almost always wrong!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)our democracy, that he has legitimized the rise of bigotry here and abroad, that this election is a struggle for the soul of the nation, and that we must unify to protect our American ideals. He also
offered an optimistic vision for American going forward, reminding us, as Jonathan Capehart put it, of who we are.
Yes, many candidates trammeled themselves up in policy details, stumping for a particular economic agenda rather than demonstrating their own presidential qualifications or addressing issues beyond domestic economic policy or suggesting any larger themes than healthcare for allachievable they insisted only through one plan made the more unpopular the more they talked.
In contrast, Biden proposed a sensible way to get to universal healthcare, building on the success of ACA, a way that now Warren is considering and that other moderate candidates embraced in their proposals essentially. As well, Biden proposed a comprehensive education program focused on the most crucial years in a childs development, justice reform, a climate change policy the Sierra Club approved, and was the only candidate to give a dedicated address on foreign policy and relationswhich from a global standpoint should be a crucial area of concern, equally existential to climate change, in that a first nuclear war, which experts say we are closer to than ever before, would spell instant climate catastrophe.
It is Biden, and only Biden, who has drawn a line between Trumps bungled and corrupt foreign relations and our prospects to achieve progress in sound climate change policy. If another has, the point was buried in constant attempts to sell M4All.
Biden has a number of do-able policies, but unlike his competitors, he has not narrowed his focus entirely to one area in which the president has limited influence and in which she will likely expend most of her political capital to implement one or two major changes.
The other candidates can be excused for seeming to have so little idea of how extensive, beyond policy creation, is the role of the president, how intensive a job it is to get policy done, much more how impossible it would be to fulfill the forty various plans they tout.
Biden does know, and while they are looking for where to turn the lights in the Oval Office off, he will be putting into operation his vast experience and knowledge to change Trumps crooked direction, repair all his vast damage, and get government up and running so we have any chance at all to put new policies into effect and do what all candidates agree they want: improve life for ordinary Americans.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
empedocles
(15,751 posts)constituencies, chipping at the Biden 'base' - and trumpsters for a very long time. Meanwhile, the others have had an easier ride.
[On the 'con side, trump has not had any appreciable contenders to deal with].
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)rallying around and UNDERSTANDING WHAT was happening here they did not.
Looks like Joni Ernst was right and impeachment pays off.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)do the moonwalk on water. So it goes.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
njhoneybadger
(3,910 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)of an entire nation, if not a continent.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Pete certainly organized an impressive statewide campaign that earned him a hard fought victory in Iowa.
Very impressive.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Baclava
(12,047 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Still In Wisconsin
(4,450 posts)Truth be told Biden was and maybe is still my first choice. The problem is that he excites nobody. Obama was exciting. Trump (in very horrible ways) was and is exciting, to his base. The perception on Biden is that he's "lost his fastball" and represents the old days. He lacks that "excitement factor." This shouldn't be a big issue, but in this country and this time, it is.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)experience, qualifications, character, and job specific knowledge absolutely head and shoulders above any other candidates, none of whom are terribly charismatic, not in a good way, and I find the prospect of unifying this country to protect its democracy the most exciting challenge we may have ever faced.
It is Biden who first identified that challenge, consistently, from day one, and it is Biden still who is the most likely to heal us from chaos and division. No other candidates endorsers universally identify the ability to unify and heal us as a chief reason they support him or her. No other candidate transcended proposed policy details to make the most pressing issue in Americaour
weakening through division, the threat to our democracy through bigotryhis primary message again and again.
I want a strong, honest, accomplished, thoroughly tested and knowledgeable leader at the helm of our broken ship of state to steer it away from disaster. Thats Biden. Dont need no 15 minutes movie star or demagogue, exciting at student rallies, unprepared to do more than rattle off an economic lecture and a laundry list of promises.
Excitement is beside the point. We need Bidens sure and steady hand. So does the world.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Still In Wisconsin
(4,450 posts)I agree with everything you said. What I'm saying, though, is that Joe's campaign has lost whatever momentum it had because people want a candidate that excites THEM. For a lot of people that's Bernie Sanders. For me personally, I can't stand Sanders; I find his entire schtick to be tiresome and empty, with no real plans to back up all the promises. But, a large segment of the Democratic voter base likes the pie-in-the-sky, shoot for the moon promises. I'll vote for whoever gets the Democratic nomination, but the only person I like less than Sanders is Tulsi Gabbard.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)qualifications, but because he did poorly in a tiny white state, thus triggering pundits, voters, our political stats guy, Silver, to re-calibrate the entire primary.
Actually, he still leads nationally. It is still bs that Bernie, crowned in Iowa, has a good chance to win ten states that, pre-Iowa, Silver and his own polls forecast Biden to win.
Bidens momentum has yet to be tested. However, these premature death notices and campaign autopsies are doing a good job of interfering with his prospects across the nation.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Still In Wisconsin
(4,450 posts)I do think Biden could beat Trump. I do not believe Sanders would have much of a chance at all.
If I'm wrong with my previous posts I'll be glad. I prefer my crow sauteed, over rice, or baked with some seasonable vegetables.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
SWBTATTReg
(22,191 posts)initially ranked so high/in the lead among the other candidates too? Maybe a little taking down might do the trick and get the juices flowing, I don't know. This is all part of the primary/caucus process, where the cream rises to the top and the rest sinks. Exciting and am glad that the primary/caucus process is finally here, and we can all get down to business, of throwing out the current POS in office, and get a far more qualified person in office there and throughout the rest of the executive branch.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)got behind the curve in Iowa. Hope he kicks some ass and replace those who are just plodding along for the ride.
This is not 2016 and the prize is much more important than someones past History.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)Last edited Fri Feb 7, 2020, 06:22 PM - Edit history (1)
should not base itself on a poor showing in two tiny white states. We should wait until America has spoken; as yet, it hasnt had the chance. The race is not over. It has not begun.
In fairness to the many voices that comprise our politically, racially, socially, religiously and culturally diverse country, we should not allow Iowa, N.H., NV, to silence or unduly influence the will of 54 others,
PS Biden still has his base. It hasnt been tapped yet.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Jarqui
(10,131 posts)In 2008, Obama represented change.
In 2016, Trump represented change.
Folks are fed up with Washington of the recent past. They want something new - not more of the same.
Joe Biden represents Washington of the recent past - he's way better than Trump - but still closer to Washington establishment than something new.
That and the knee capping via Ukraine are two key things that I think have hurt his candidacy significantly.
Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar & Buttigieg all represent change better than Joe.
In Joe's favor, he represents a return to the sensible management of the country something like Obama provided. He's not as charismatic and lacks Obama skills at oration nearly all politicians would lack compared to Obama. But I'd sleep at night thinking he was a very safe choice.
I am angry at the knee capping of his candidacy via Ukraine BS. The GOP didn't just look the other way at Trumps high crimes - they smeared a man's reputation who had spent the last 50 years or so establishing his integrity. As such, they've already embarked on corrupting the 2020 election.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
rockfordfile
(8,709 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)This is why I just flat-out reject any arguments about who we should pick based upon what Republicans are going to say about them
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
FarPoint
(12,472 posts)Not in touch with our true outrage and victimization by tRump... he's using 20 year old campaign strategies without realizing the battle is about saving America from a dictator...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stopdiggin
(11,404 posts)The "electability" factor shows up in the general election .. and much, much less so in the primaries (and caucus even less). Do we have to keep pointing out that Bernie Sanders did very well in IA in 2016? Because he was so "electable?" Really?
And any political analysis that misses that point ... Hmmm.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
jmg257
(11,996 posts)MANCHESTER, N.H. Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is shaking up his campaign leadership just days ahead of the New Hampshire primary, an acknowledgment that his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination is in major trouble after a disastrous fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses.
Mr. Biden is giving effective control of the campaign to Anita Dunn, a veteran Democratic operative and top adviser to him.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/us/politics/joe-biden-anita-dunn.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
demofan40
(45 posts)They're going to vote for someone else, it's not rocket science.
Maybe he should give those who have doubts the same leeway he's still giving Mitch McConnell.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
uponit7771
(90,370 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden