538: Why Sanders Does Better With Independents (from 2016)

[Quixote1818]

It’s not because they’re more moderate than Democrats.

During the 2004 presidential primaries, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean made headlines by asserting that he represented the “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.” His support in the New Hampshire primary was true to those words: He performed better among self-identified Democrats (29 percent) than among independents (23 percent). That’s not necessarily surprising; since self-identified Democrats are more liberal than independents, we’d expect a candidate from the left to do better with them.

Twelve years later, another presidential candidate from Vermont is seeking the Democratic nomination. Like Dean, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders aims to outflank his opponent from the left. But unlike Dean, Sanders does much better among independents than among Democrats. In New Hampshire, for instance, Sanders won Democrats by 4 percentage points while winning independents by nearly 50 percentage points, a split we’ve seen repeatedly since then.1 Some of Sanders’s strongest performances in primaries have come in places such as New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin, states whose rules allow independents to vote in either primary. In fact, to date Sanders has compiled an unexpected record, performing very well in caucuses but having won just a single closed primary (Oklahoma’s).

So why is Sanders doing so well among independents? It appears to be driven not by their ideology so much as their dislike of partisan politics. And that has implications for Sanders’s prospects in the upcoming primaries in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Maryland, all of which are closed to non-Democrats. Understanding why Sanders does so well among independents in the Democratic primaries can also give us hints about his appeal to moderate voters should he make it to the general election.

More: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-sanders-does-better-with-independents/

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

1. Bernie appeals to EVERYONE... because of his progressive policy agenda!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[Clash City Rocker]

2. I'd say it has more to do with all the attacks he's made on Democrats over the years

Combined with many of his supporters treating Democrats like they’re the most evil people on the planet. That sort of thing tends to stick with people for a long time.

[Gothmog]

3. Bernie's polling with Black voters is still terrible.

Link to tweet

[Quixote1818]

4. It's a concern. If he gets the nomination I would like to see Stacey Abrams on his ticket. nt

[Gothmog]

5. If sanders is the nominee, Russia will use the booing of John Lewis, Elijah Cummings and Stacy Abram

to suppress African American vote. Russia was somewhat successful last cycle and if sanders is the nominee, the Russia will have some real incidents to use

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Quixote1818]

6. They will do that with any of the candidates just like they did with Hillary.

When the clips of Sanders chained to a black women during the Civil Rights movement gets more play I don't think they will buy the attacks. I think the reason the black vote went down for Hillary was mainly because Obama simply wasn't running again. So I do think we need a black woman on the ticket no matter who gets the nomination and if Sanders is President with his age we could end up with the first black woman president.

[Gothmog]

7. There was a great deal of anger at the National Convention at these stunts

Russia will have a real incident where there is real anger to use to suppress the vote.