What some (predominantly) white folks can tell us on Tuesday

[Tom Rinaldo]

What use are the votes of a disproportionately small, white, and rural state to handicapping the chances of our Democratic candidates for the nomination. Though the voting sample is skewed, it still has a lot to tell us. One thing that is rarely said enough is this: New Hampshire voters get to know all of the candidates pretty damn well, up close and personal. And they are able to compare the strengths and weaknesses of each to another in real time, in the flesh, over several months, often on multiple occasions.That gives NH voters a perspective on our candidates that virtually no one (outside of Iowa) gets. But unlike Iowa, NH uses a secret ballot and makes it easy for all of it's citizens to vote. This is what I will be looking for:

1) Whether Joe Biden is still losing altitude. Biden doesn't have to win on Tuesday, or even come in second. He might even get away with coming in 4th, but he must close the gap between him and Buttigieg significantly, while not finishing further out of 3rd place than he did in Iowa. Sure, Biden can look ahead to states where People of Color factor in much more prominently. But although there is a strong case that no one can win the Democratic nomination without significant African American support, no one can win the Presidency without significant White support also. Biden bases much of his pitch for support on asserting that he is the Democrat best able to defeat Trump. Being an also ran anywhere undercuts that argument

Another part of Biden's potential appeal rests on his readiness to take command on day one of his administration. In NH Biden can try to discount both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren as Senators from neighboring states with a subsequent built in advantage. He can't say that about either Pete Buttigieg or Amy Klobuchar though. Buttigieg in particular represents a stark contrast to Biden. He is as obviously youthful as Biden is seasoned. He is brand new on the political scene while Biden has run three times for President. He is from outside Washington DC while Biden has served in the capital since he was 29. After serving as our Vice President for 8 years, Biden should be able to soundly defeat Buttigieg with NH's white electorate, or something is not working.

But, granted, politics is strange. Sometimes a fresh face suddenly leaps to the fore like it did with Mayor Pete in Iowa. OK, but now Biden and the rest of the nation have had a little time to digest a changing landscape. One week may not be long enough for Biden to get ahead of Buttigieg's new momentum, but it is long enough for him to blunt it. Biden can't finish far behind Buttigieg again. If he does not only will Pete be strengthened but so will other candidates who appeal to moderates. That could be Klobuchar if she surprises to the upside in NH, or it could be Bloomberg.

2) Has the Sanders surge stalled? Barring the totally unexpected, Sanders will emerge from NH as very much a viable candidate. But will he be riding any significant momentum into the contests coming up in Nevada and South Carolina? If Sanders doesn't at least finish in the top two it will raise real concerns about his candidacy. If he solidly wins the NH primary Sanders will have the upper hand in momentum over whoever comes in second. If the finish is tight, with Sanders either narrowly winning or narrowly losing to whoever wins instead, he will remain well placed but without the status of a clear front runner.

3) Does Buttigieg stay on a roll? His surprising strong showing in Iowa opens him up to fresh scrutiny, and there is both an upside and a downside to that. Does the increased focus on Buttigieg feed his rise further, or begin to chip away at it as he receives closer attention, both by the public and by his rivals for the nomination?

4) Any movement in "the progressive lane"? Tuesday is a real test for Elizabeth Warren. She, like Sanders, is a Senator from a neighboring state. Most voters in NH know her well. This is a case where lowered expectations may help Warren emerge from NH viable. She no longer has to best Bernie Sanders in NH. She does however have to at least do much better than recent polling indicates that she will, in other words she needs a close finish behind Sanders. Coming within a couple of percentage points of Sanders now could be seen as evidence of a late surge, and that could fuel the fundraising she will need to remain competitive.

5) Any movement in "the moderate lane"? With most eyes on Buttigieg and Biden, is there room for Amy Klobuchar to turn enough heads for her campaign to stay viable. She is running out of time to have a big time moment, but if it is going to happen now is that time. What might that look like? Finishing ahead of either Buttigieg or Biden would probably do the trick for her, or even just nipping at their heels so long as she isn't too far off the pace of the eventual winner. Like Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar needs to come out of NH with some evidence to support the premise that her campaign is starting to catch fire. She has run out of time to settle for another mere uptick in support.

6) What about a dark horse? The only dark horse on the stage last night who has any chance to go the distance is Tom Steyer, and that mostly is because he alone among them has the ability to self fund his campaign into Super Tuesday, without any victories or near misses under his belt. Steyer seemed to strongly be making his case to Black voters during the debate, obviously looking beyond NH toward South Carolina. It's a reasonably good strategy that could put him on the electoral map, but he risks being viewed as unelectable by the time votes are being cast in Nevada and South Carolina if he can't do better than the mid single digits in either of the first two contests. Steyer probably needs to come close to double digits in NH.

7) How many voters not previously registered as Democrats will participate in the NH Democratic primary, and what kinds of voters are they? Are they traditionally non partisan voters or moderate Republicans fleeing from Trump? Are they voters disillusioned by how politics is usually played who are giving Democrats another chance, under these trying circumstances? Are they drawn to solid centrists, or to populists, to those with ample political experience or to outsiders, even mavericks?

There is a lot we can learn from the results of the NH primary.

[squirecam]

1. Sanders must win NH

Biden must win SC

[George II]

3. That's about right. When those first four states have voted Biden will be close to or in the lead.

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. If he doesn't win NH his campaign takes a hit. How big depends on the margin

If Sanders finishes a close second in NH he still retains numerous potential opportunities to regain traction. That could be a good future debate performance, some news event that casts his policies in a favorable light, or even just a damn good organizing effort by his campaign staff in future contests. He has the money to pay them regardless of Tuesday's outcome. If he falls from the top two however it will be much harder for him.

[elleng]

2. Thanks, Tom

[emmaverybo]

5. Biden does not have to beat Buttigieg in NH. He beats him by about every metric we should

use to elect a president, subsumed within how we should determine our nominee.

So you and some pundits and perhaps Nate Silver have decided before we ever get to a large and diverse state that NH models how the nation should compare Buttigieg’s viability vs. Biden’s.

Not so fast! Why should it? Who decided the people of NH should decide relative merits? That Biden is weakened if in an unrepresentative state he can not surpass the emerging media star of the week?

You vastly underestimate Biden, his supporters, and the relevancy 50+ more states’ populations have to our democracy.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. I'm glad that we agree

Here is what I actually wrote:

"Biden doesn't have to win on Tuesday, or even come in second. He might even get away with coming in 4th, but he must close the gap between him and Buttigieg significantly, while not finishing further out of 3rd place than he did in Iowa."

So you see I think Biden could, for example, finish behind both Sanders and Buttigieg and come out of NH in reasonably good shape. So much depends on the margins. While we probably see those benchmarks differently I agree that Biden can exit NH a "loser" and still win the Democratic nomination.

[emmaverybo]

7. Fair enough.

[Tom Rinaldo]

8. Based on the attack ad that Biden released against Buttigieg today

it seems clear Biden realizes that he can't afford to let Buttigieg lap him in NH also.