Emerson College tracking poll has Klobuchar up, Biden in 5th...

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

[jezebel321]

1. Klobuchar taking votes from Pete will give it to Bernie.

[brooklynite]

4. I'd say she's taking them from Biden

[Drunken Irishman]

5. How can you say that when Biden was at 11 in their last poll?

She's +4 and Pete is -4. Clearly she's taking the votes from him.

[highplainsdem]

6. The tweet you posted says Biden's support is unchanged. Amy gained 4 points, Pete lost 4.

Pretty clear where her 4 points came from.

[Garrett78]

7. That isn't really how it works. It's possible, yes, but probably more complicated than that.

There are several other candidates involved, as well as undecideds. There likely is some correlation between Klobuchar's rise and Buttigieg's decline, but there are other variables.

Biden may have gained some supporters but also lost approximately the same number of supporters, thus ending up with the same percentage. We really don't know.

[BusyBeingBest]

2. That is a big leap for Amy. The debate was her lifeline.

[Garrett78]

8. The Iowa fiasco was her lifeline. That she was 5th in a state that borders her own...

...was somewhat mitigated by the chaos. And, as a result, she wasn't a target at Friday's debate--she stayed above the fray, while also being taken more seriously than Steyer and Yang.

Really, though, she needed to win Iowa or place a close 2nd. I don't see a path for her.

[BusyBeingBest]

12. Yeah, I was disappointed that she didn't do better in Iowa, but the overall debacle

there kind of hid her poor showing. That and Biden not doing well. If she ends up in the top 4 in NH she has a chance of going on.

[Garrett78]

13. As I said, she could justify continuing with a 3rd place finish, but...

...where is she going to win, aside from her home state? You have to start stacking wins before too long, or else you're done. Klobuchar winning Minnesota would be akin to Howard Dean winning Vermont in 2004 (i.e., meaningless).

[BusyBeingBest]

14. I think if she edges out Biden and he ends up fourth or fifth in NH, he will lose his grip on SC and

other places and then it's kind of a free-for-all for everyone in the race. You can't assume anyone's support will remain static in the face of surprisingly good showings or repeated losses. Right now she's trending upward and getting some cash, she gets to stay in the game--she's already outlasted people who started off much higher in polls and publicity (Harris). Why wouldn't voters suddenly like her more in SC and NV if she does well in NH?

[Garrett78]

15. I agree regarding Biden, but I still don't see where Klobuchar can win outside of MN.

If she and Sanders had won Iowa instead of Buttigieg and Sanders, sure. But 5th in Iowa is a killer.

Lastly, I doubt she'll finish 3rd in New Hampshire. Time will tell.

[highplainsdem]

3. And Buttigieg slipping 4 points, Sanders slipping 1.

[evertonfc]

9. Amy

who I like has zero chance of winning the nomination. A good debate can give you a bump but NH, like Iowa is not representative of our party. I can't see a state, after NH, that Amy can win. That said, she is a great asset for our party. Now, if Biden finishes 5th then NV and SC will determine his ability to continue. If Biden is out, you will see a chaotic process that will test our party. Can a Democratic socialist win in November? Maybe but I fear down ballot will suffer.

[Garrett78]

10. She could probably win MN, but that'd be like Dean winning VT in 2004. Meaningless.

All a 3rd place finish would do is make it easier for Klobuchar to justify continuing, while others (Warren and Biden) would face calls to drop out. Eventually, though, Klobuchar will have to exit. I suspect that'll happen before Super Tuesday but she almost certainly won't make it past Super Tuesday.

[UniteFightBack]

18. No way that is why Bloomberg is there ready to take over and he will then get the nomination.

He's the fail safe.

[TexasTowelie]

20. Is Bloomberg polling over 15% anywhere.

I doubt that Bloomberg or Steyer are going to poll over 15% in more than a few states. Their presence on the ballot does impact Biden, but the main effect that they will have is to deny Biden a majority and a second ballot including the superdelegates will be necessary.

[TexasTowelie]

11. So which of these candidates is going to be able to offset Biden's lead in the South?

[Skya Rhen]

17. None.

[UniteFightBack]

16. It really looks like we want to lose. nt

[squirecam]

19. If this is accurate

Then it’s like I was saying, Sanders will win NH because Amy will take some from Pete.

But this still means that the moderates are simply swapping voters between them. Sanders has a large group that love him, and a larger group that won’t support him until the general.

[madibella]

21. It's amazing how the schedule of primaries/caucuses can totally set the narrative and

completely influence the mindset of the voter and the narrative of the media.

I have always paid some attention to the election process, but never to this degree. One reason is of course that the stakes are so high and the second is that my daughter will be old enough to vote in her first election! She will be too young for the primary but old enough in November!

The election primary schedule really does not give an accurate representation when so much weight is given to two states at first and the narrative must now be changed for some to even be viable. In other words, if S. Carolina was first, the narrative would be completely different and those at the top now might be in the position of those at the bottom. The money would come in for those candidates because the narrative would be totally opposite.

The whole thing is really "unfair" either way you look at it. I'm not sure what the solution would be, but the whole process is crazy.

[Renew Deal]

22. It's hard to see Biden and Warren continuing after that kind of result.