Feb 7-8 Emerson NH poll, changes since yesterday: Sanders -1, Buttigieg -4, Klobuchar +4, Warren +1,

[highplainsdem]

Biden unchanged.

http://emersonpolling.com/2020/02/09/new-hampshire-2020-tracking-poll-night-7-debate-shifts-momentum-for-candidates-but-sanders-stays-in-strong-position/

[highplainsdem]

1. Emerson's director of polling says the debate "may have stymied momentum for the front runners" with

Klobuchar helped the most.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, explains the changes: “Both Sanders and Buttigieg received a bounce in our poll numbers since Iowa, but it looks like the debate on Friday may have stymied momentum for the front runners. The candidate who seems to have been able to take advantage of the event is Klobuchar who gained four points.”

[Bumperstickers]

2. Bidens ad and petes debate performance hurt him bigtime it seems

Rough 24 hrs for Pete

[highplainsdem]

3. This is the debate performance. Doubt the ad has had much effect yet.

[Iliyah]

4. Emerson again . . .

Mayor Pete proved them wrong re: Iowa.

[MontanaFarmer]

5. Amy on the move in both emerson and Suffolk.

Don't be surprised if she finishes a competitive 3rd. Someone was saying they expect her to drop out after NH, but she's headed towards getting delegates, putting her in the NV debate. Biden 5th? Warren 4th in her neighborhood? Amy looks to outlast both of them at this juncture.

[Garrett78]

6. I'm that someone. A 3rd place finish might help her justify continuing, but...

...Klobuchar really needed to win Iowa or come in a close 2nd. The chaos of Iowa threw her a lifeline, and because she finished 5th in Iowa, she was not a target Friday night and stayed above the fray. But, aside from Minnesota, where can she win? At some point, you have to start stacking wins. I just don't see a path for her.

[MontanaFarmer]

8. Yes it was you!

I think it's unlikely, just not lottery unlikely. She won't win anywhere with the field as currently constituted, except for MN. I'm saying her path is the national Biden vote coupled with a good chunk of the national Warren vote. Steyer etc. There's plenty of NotSanders to win, and IMO he's not going to rocket to 50% as the field inevitably shrinks. He's got durable support but i think it's got a cap. Bloomberg could do the same. Again I'm not saying i believe this is likely or terribly plausible but i think she's going to be positioned to outlast a couple major players, and then we'll see how it develops from there.

[judeling]

9. Her strategy was to become the logical altenative

Except for impeachment she probably would have already pulled that off in respect to Biden. As a head before heart candidate her support would be late breaking and not being on the ground in Iowa hurt her more the anyone.

A second or third in NH would solidify that alternative position. Then she rolls into Nevada as the daughter of a union family, another state with two female senators, as something of a Harry Reid protégé not that bad. Another high stakes debate probably without Yang, but maybe Bloomberg. If she does well in that debate she also become the alternative to Bloomberg.

Who she finishes behind in NH will play a big part but the Suffolk tracker also has her gaining at Buttigieg's expense so tying or beating him is entirely possible and if that happens Pete is in trouble as is Biden. So a Nevada second to Bernie is in the cards. That changes the entire race.

She is really good when attacked so don't be surprised if she comes out ahead when that happens on the debate stage. Really the only thing more she would need is for Trump to start coming after her.

[judeling]

7. This is one Day of Amy's post debate bounce.

Just as Pete started with a 4% bump with post Iowa bounce so does Amy post debate.
You read trackers for the trends. If the bounce she had is coming at Buttigieg's expense we should look for two more good days for Amy and two more disappointing ones for Pete.

So don't be surprised if tomorrow's has her tied with Pete

[lunasun]

11. Great breakdown @ the link . Thanks + looks like maybe Amy got some Pete people to change

after the debate ?