I find the variance between polling and DU informal polling to be interesting.

[guillaumeb]

One example from today:

Final Iowa delegate numbers:
Buttigieg: 14
Sanders: 12
Warren: 8
Biden: 6
Klobuchar: 1

At DU, Warren is the clear favorite when choosing from multiple candidates. In Iowa, she was third, or essentially tied for 2nd if one sees each group of two as too close to call.

What does this show, if anything?

Edited to add:

Even here, 43% are undecided. So in my view, we are guessing at this point.

[bearsfootball516]

1. DU is significantly more progressive than the rest of the country, typically.

[guillaumeb]

3. I would agree, in general.

But it is also a cross-section of voters from all parts of the country. And by the nature of the site, posters might well be more politically involved, and interested, and participate more in acting on political beliefs.

[Garrett78]

2. DU is not reflective of the population at large.

And many things people within the DU bubble believe are refuted by real world evidence (the latest example is the number of DUers who deny that the Biden campaign is concerned).

[guillaumeb]

5. At this very early stage of the primary process, every campaign has concerns.

And early leaders do not always finish first.

My view is that we will know far more, and be able to make more informed guesses, after Super Tuesday.

[Garrett78]

20. When I say "concerned"....

...I'm talking about how the Biden camp recognizes that Biden's going to be in a very bad position if it has another lousy result in NH.

As opposed to all of the people in the DU bubble who are in complete denial about the impact IA and NH have.

[guillaumeb]

38. I understood your reference.

Let us revisit this after super Tuesday.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

4. DU trends older and whiter than the population as a whole.

[guillaumeb]

6. And older voters tend to be regular voters.

Thus influencing things out of proportion to our numbers.

[highplainsdem]

28. And despie the age of DUers, Sanders was way ahead of Clinton in polls here in 2016.

[Newest Reality]

7. Among other things...

Among other things mentioned already, it shows something else.

Notice that 43% have not yet decided here. If we were playing cards, almost half the hand has not been revealed so far.

That's a rather large chunk missing from the data and we don't know who those people would finally choose. If everybody suddenly decided and chose a candidate, the numbers could shift around dramatically.

[guillaumeb]

9. Great points. And I did recently edit to add that fact.

It is far too early to do anything but guess. Our energies are better directed to campaign/electoral work.

[Newest Reality]

13. Yes.

Thanks for pointing out the differences between what we see and other polls though. It was a good idea.

Let's do direct our energies. They will be needed.

[Baclava]

46. That 43% is almost exactly the amount of undecided in NH! So DU is a reflection of NH voters?

Who knew? lol

[tiredtoo]

8. I find the statement DU is much more progressive than the public

to be questionable. Frequent posts of mine have been blasted firmly by what i used to call "establishment democrats". Or mentioning names of what i consider to be progressive people. Michael Moore gets me in trouble as does Bill Maher (Maher is not progressive IMHO) but i get nailed when i mention him.

[guillaumeb]

10. It is an opinion.

While I find Michael Moore to be an excellent filmmaker, I do not rely on his political opinions to form a judgment.

And remember that in any area where people are truly passionate about choices, that passion manifests in what we write.

[blm]

11. We are keyed in voters. We can tell you what happened with BCCI and

Diebold, Savings and Loan and current Wells Fargo scandal.

Most Americans couldn’t.

[guillaumeb]

12. And we might even be able to identify the 3 co-equal branches of government.

And that disconnect means that for millions of citizens, politics is seen as not relevant and/or boring.

[blm]

14. ✔️

[Jedi Guy]

22. If a day ever comes where you're happy and don't want to be...

Just go on Youtube and watch those videos where they ask random people on the street questions about US history and government. My dad taught history after he retired from the Air Force, and I'm pretty sure he'd have a stroke if he watched those videos. It's jaw-dropping how ignorant a lot of people in the US are about a wide constellation of topics.

[Celerity]

33. plus a billion

[guillaumeb]

40. I was 16 when my family moved here from Canada.

I had 3 years of US history, as well as world history at home that included much about the big neighbor.

And yes, many voters are ignorant about many things. Perhaps the rich prefer it that way?

[Jedi Guy]

57. I don't know that I'd go that far.

The information is out there if one has the wherewithal to go looking. It's hardly as if US/world history, government, civics, etc. is classified info. Even if schools don't teach it (which they absolutely should), the Internet is pretty much the sum total of human knowledge, only a few clicks away.

Personally, I think it's simple apathy. When my old man taught history, his kids would say, "History is boring. What does it matter what a bunch of dead people did a hundred years ago?" Some people just aren't interested in it because they think it has no impact on their lives, and/or they don't prize knowledge for its own sake.

When I'm feeling more charitable, I think it may also be that people are so damn busy trying to eke out a living that they simply don't have time for anything that doesn't involve making money and putting food on the table. When you're dragging ass tired after your double shift, you're not interested in gaining knowledge. You just want to nuke your frozen dinner, shovel it into your face, and collapse into bed.

But the kind of people who actively scorn knowledge or have no time to seek it are the ones who put Trump in the Oval Office. Somehow or other, we have to figure out a way to break that cycle, or the know-nothings will keep voting for bigger know-nothings.

[guillaumeb]

58. Excellent points.

Many people do not realize how politics affects their own lives, and their ability to have the freedom to make choices. So these people do not vote, or vote on minimal information.

And the fact that wages have remained stagnant for over 40 years means many people are moving from one job to another simply to pay the bills.

And all of that works to the advantage of the rich.

[Jedi Guy]

60. Yeah, it blows my mind when people tell me they don't follow politics, or worse, don't vote.

I can sort of understand not following politics, as it's something of an acquired taste, and it can be exhausting these days, given all the bitterness and screeching. But not voting? Setting aside the "people died so you have the right to do that" argument, not voting is essentially ceding control of/influence on your future to everyone else around you, and I find that idea intolerable.

That said, I do think a voting citizen has a responsibility to be informed and understand the issues of the day. A poll test is a horrible idea, for obvious reasons, so it can't be enforced, but still. Every right comes with a corresponding responsibility.

In addition to wages remaining stagnant, you have the gig economy and weak protections for workers. When your boss can boot you out the door for any reason or no reason at all, that creates an environment of quiet terror and desperation. When you don't know if you'll have a job tomorrow morning, it's even worse.

I think the rich are waking up to the fact that the gravy train is about to jump the rails. And I think that explains a hell of a lot about what we see happening around us, as well.

[guillaumeb]

61. Again excellent points.

First, what I always tell non-voters is that your vote is your voice. Complaining to the television, or on social media, is useless.

As to the economy, I have long argued that there is no booming economy, and there never really was one for the majority of the working class. Any periods of relatively high wages disappeared as unionization levels fell. This economy is built upon short lived bubbles and massive debt.

[Jedi Guy]

62. The average US household has $38,000 in debt, excluding mortgages.

Then consider that 40% of Americans would struggle to come up with $400 for an unexpected expense. People are in debt up to their eyeballs, to the point that they can't manage a sudden financial emergency. That's extremely concerning, and definitely not a sign of a healthy, robust economy.

My wife and I live in a row house in a survey. Essentially a townhome, for all intents and purposes. Out behind our survey are several streets of what we call McMansions, the big 4-5 bedroom houses. Most of them, naturally, have 2-3 cars in the driveway. My wife asked me once, "How the hell do people afford that?" There are two possible answers: either they make a boatload of money, or they're in debt up to their eyeballs (or some combination of the two).

We're fortunate in that we have a savings account that equals several months of our combined salary, and we also have very low debt, excluding secured debt. We certainly aren't rich, but I get the feeling we're financially healthier than a lot of people out there. Given that this economy is built on sand, it helps me sleep a little easier at night.

[democrank]

15. I've wondered about this.

When I joined DU in 2003, we had many good, solid, discussions on issues. These issues were, generally speaking, the same issues folks around me were talking about. Today’s topics on DU seem less issue-oriented, or at least are not the same things friends, relatives, neighbors are talking about. There might not be a disconnect, but there is a difference, at least in my neck of the woods, which is quite rural and not wealthy.

It was 21 below zero here this morning....a Sunday morning....yet the logging rig came down the hill bright and early, it’s driver (who is sick) is just trying to make ends meet. A few days ago I talked with someone from a neighboring state who stopped taking needed drugs because he had to buy more oil for his furnace.

Folks struggling to survive have a limited amount of time and energy. Those I know are talking about meat-and-potatoes issues and not much else right now.

I believe the race is still quite fluid and most anything can happen.

[blm]

27. Struggling America

[guillaumeb]

36. You touch on another topic I love to raise.

The US corporate media endlessly repeats the story about the booming economy, but I do not know anyone who experiences such an economy. Instead, people are struggling to stay ahead of their debts. And when 84% of stock market gains go tot he top 1%, repeating stories about the booming market has no relevance to what most workers experience.

The GOP prefers to divert workers with talk of minorities taking jobs, but the reality is that the rich are the only ones experiencing this booming economy.

[AncientGeezer]

16. It shows DU not indicative of the voters actually casting votes.

On the ground is different than here.

[tiredtoo]

18. kinda but

Last i heard voters in New Hampshire were still a large percentage undecided much like here.

[AncientGeezer]

21. Kinda.... but not....per 538..I don't see a big undecided

Can you source that claim?

[tiredtoo]

23. Just what i have been hearing on the tv machine. eom

[AncientGeezer]

25. Stop watching it....I watch the polling....I don't see..can't find the big undecided...can you?

[TwilightZone]

31. Poll: Sanders leads in New Hampshire, but half of voters remain uncommitted

With about 30% undecided.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/8/21129520/2020-new-hampshire-polls-sanders-buttigieg-biden-warren

[AncientGeezer]

39. 30% undecided.....that's your go to...

You realize 30% is not.." a large percentage undecided "....70% is a large percentage.....if my math is correct

[TwilightZone]

32. NH Poll: 30% undecided, with about half not firmly committed

I'd heard similar things. This polls seems to confirm it.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/8/21129520/2020-new-hampshire-polls-sanders-buttigieg-biden-warren

[guillaumeb]

37. To a degree, that is true.

But 2018 showed that energized voters make the difference.

[Bonobo]

17. Before the Purge, DU was overwhelmingly Progressive and supportive of Sanders.

It wasn't even close.

The DU you see here today is not what it was.

I have been here 20 years -and before anyone says that I am a JPR member, I am not. I was there for about 6 weeks during dark times and have not been there in years.

[tiredtoo]

19. two questions

What purge? and what is JPR?

[AncientGeezer]

24. JPR..Jack Pine Radicals....it's a blast to peruse...

If conspiracy theories, socialism, and hatred of ANYone with $5.00 more than you have is your thing... or employer provided health insurance is a thing to dispise... ....it's a blast to read.

[Hav]

26. After Clinton won the nomination

and the campaign for the general election began, it was understandably expected that the users support the Democratic candidate. Many Berners didn't want to agree to that and left by their own choice. JPR was a website created as one of their new homes where they could do their thing, to put it diplomatically. I wouldn't call that a purge as it rather feeds their persecution complex.

[democrattotheend]

51. I guess that's why almost all the DUers who supported Bernie in the 2016 election

supported Hillary in the general - we're the only ones still here. I would be way out of place at JPR even though I supported Bernie in 2016.

[emulatorloo]

30. There was no purge. The more conspiracy minded Sanders supporters refused to sign

the GENERAL Election Terms of Service and went to a conspiracy theory board. HAV put it well.

[tiredtoo]

34. ok i was a sanders supporter but must have passed the test

as i am still here and did not leave.

[emulatorloo]

35. I was as well.

It was mostly Bernie-or-Busters who left.

[democrattotheend]

54. Me too

I supported Bernie in the primaries but had no reservation about supporting Hillary in the general. The only time I even considered not voting for her was when I considered trading my vote with a friend in Pennsylvania who was planning to vote for Gary Johnson. In hindsight part of me wishes I had, because she didn't need my vote in New York.

[democrattotheend]

52. Exactly. I recall many Hillary supporters being booted in 2008 for the same reason

I think some of them might have come back at a later point, but I remember at least 20-30 Hillary supporters being banned in 2008 because they refused to support Obama after the primaries were over. It's not unique to Bernie.

[David__77]

29. It struck me as diverse before.

...I suppose it was more left, in general.

[JudyM]

41. +1

[Codeine]

44. There was no purge.

Revisionist history at its worst.

[questionseverything]

47. tons of people were kicked out last time round well before the convention

I stayed off du after convention just so my feelings would not get hurt ,so I could vote blue (as I always do)

[democrattotheend]

55. Many people were kicked out in 2008 too

Hillary supporters who refused to support Obama were kicked out as well. I imagine the same thing happened in 2004, though I don't recall any specific people like I do from 2008.

[questionseverything]

56. i wasnt here in 2008

VOTEBLUENOMATTERWHO

[democrattotheend]

63. I've been here since 2003

But for some reason my profile makes it look like I've only been here since 2008. I vaguely recall that they might have shifted to a new server or something at some point - I think I had to reestablish my account, so that may be why.

[tiredtoo]

42. in addition to my previous comments

I suspect about 1/2 of the undecided on this board are actually decided, just enjoy the freedom of declaring undecided.

[guillaumeb]

43. I would not argue that point.

Compared with my memory of 2016, there do not seem to be as many posts in the various protected candidate fora.

[Codeine]

45. I would estimate more than half.

They like the aura of plausible deniability, but their posts are all curiously similar.

[tritsofme]

48. Back in the day, Dennis Kucinich would dominate DU polls.

This place has never been representative of the party at large.

[Mersky]

49. Here's my anecdotal two cents:

My grandmother wants to vote for Warren in the primary. She’s well aware of what’s been going on, dislikes tRump as much as I do, watches local and national news some, reads the local paper, but isn’t terribly sophisticated in all the particulars that regulars on DU tend to be.

She’s remarked with some frequency that Warren makes good sense, and has the primary marked on her calendar.

[brooklynite]

50. This shows that DU has no relationship to politics in the real world.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

53. Neither Iowa nor DU represents Democrats nationally.

[Kaleva]

59. Dennis Kucinich was the darling of DU back in the 2008 primary. At least early on.