(opinion) Does Pete Buttigieg have a path to become the Democratic nominee?

[nitpicker]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/10/pete-buttigieg-democratic-party-nomination-path

Does Pete Buttigieg have a path to become the Democratic nominee?

Rachel Bitecofer

Mon 10 Feb 2020 11.11 GMT Last modified on Mon 10 Feb 2020 12.11 GMT

(snip)
But with New Hampshire’s primary still pending, important questions remain about Pete Buttigieg’s viability for the party’s nomination outside the safe confines of two states that are both poor representations of the Democratic party’s modern voter coalition.

Up till now, Buttigieg has struggled to win over voters of color, and the Beltway narrative has centered around his problematic record on race relations as mayor of South Bend, Indiana, to explain his failure to gain traction. Without a doubt, this frame has had some effect on Buttigieg’s ability to gain traction with black voters, although it’s important to note it’s an issue he shares with several of his peers. But narratives such as this can be powerful, especially when they are echoed in media circles. Voters rely heavily on signals by pundits: public opinion generally flows from elites and opinion leaders down to the public.

Once they become set, these types of narratives can be all but impossible to escape. In 2016, I demonstrated how successful Donald Trump was with making the “Crooked Hillary” nickname stick. Public opinion data showed that despite a much cleaner Politifact “Truth-O-Meter” scorecard than her opponent, voters overwhelmingly described Hillary Clinton, not Donald Trump as a “liar”.
(snip)

If support for Biden continues to collapse and Buttigieg comes out of New Hampshire as the mainstream faction’s frontrunner, his path to the nomination will be rockier than similar candidates in previous cycles, and not just because of the threat he’ll face from Sanders. With Amy Klobuchar earning more than $2.5m the night of the New Hampshire debate and Mike Bloomberg rising in the polls in South Carolina and across the Super Tuesday states, it is looking increasingly likely that a Biden collapse will produce a trifurcated mainstream vote, complicating the pathway for Buttigieg, or any other of the mainstream candidates to secure enough delegates to clinch the party’s nomination. In that scenario, Sanders may be advantaged and would almost certainly be if Warren was to withdraw from the race.
(snip)

[Sherman A1]

1. Possibly, Possibly Not

He remains the absolute very last on my list of preferences.

[OnDoutside]

2. It's a moot point until South Carolina. That's what Joe has been

working towards all along. I'd say he's wishing that primary was tomorrow instead of NH.

[mitch96]

3. He may have a path and is the voting public ready for him in the general election?

Can he beat tRump? That's my question... Then again I'll vote for the Dem who ever it is...
m

[duforsure]

4. I think he does, but

The Democratic Party will not let this stand, or with Bernie either and we'll see them drop , and their popularity go back down. I also think Joe's looking bad now, and ready to look worse in NH, and his donors will dry up soon, if they haven't already started switching their support after such poor performances in Debates , and his poor choices for policies. Warren and/or Amy could become the ones to beat soon.

[LeftTurn3623]

11. I do not understand this thinking

explain how Amy with a 5th place finish in Iowa and a 4th or 5th place finish in NH along with currently polling at 3 percent in Nevada, 2 percent in SC and nationally polling at 4 percent will become the candidate to beat soon?

I love Warren but where does she go? 3rd in Iowa, 3rd or 4th in NH - currently 3rd in Nevada & 4th in SC - Nationally 3rd/4th - Where can she over take Bernie which is her competition. There just isn't any path

I get Pete is a long shot. Maybe he pulls off an upset in NH and momentum gives him a shot to do well in Nevada but Pete himself has very little chance. Amy & Warren realistically have none and after NH, Amy should consider dropping out or at that point, she is just helping Bernie get elected. If Pete does well in NH he earns the right obviously to carry on but if he fails in Nevada & SC he should pull out of the race. Because its too many moderates splitting the vote and Bernie will walk to the nomination. Which if you want Bernie then you should be happy.

[brutus smith]

5. Pete won't resonate in the south.

My 1st choice is Warren, 2nd Bernie, 3rd Amy Klobuchar. Amy , with her age, could be the surprise in the primaries.

[LeftTurn3623]

8. well Bernie, Warren , & Amy wont resonate in the South either

its not like they are polling any better

[JGug1]

6. Buttigieg

On social media, I am ranting non stop about the Trump propaganda machine. I refer you to the Atlantic Magazine's article. This is the most frightening thing I have ever seen in my lifetime. (79 years). Trump is already executing his plan. He did it during the impeachment. It targets micro groups and has a different message depending on what the group stands for. Absent mounting an equal campaign, any Dem will lose. Mount an equal campaign and ANY Dem wins because the Dems have one advantage: The truth.

[LeftTurn3623]

7. said this morning on Morning Joe that John Kerry was polling at 1% with AA after Iowa

the year he ended up becoming the nominee

I do not know for sure if that is true but its what they said

[judeling]

9. Buttigieg's Biggest problem is he Tried.

While there isn't a lot of AA support for many candidates the biggest takeaway is that while Bernie and Liz have worked on it to some success. Pete has worked on it much harder and failed.

[LakeArenal]

10. He does.

I think lots of us support his campaign.