Good new and Bad news for Bernie in New Hampshire...

[brooklynite]

Good News: Trend data is fairly solid over past week. Bernie will probably lead the NH Primary results with 28-30% of the vote.

Bad News: Bernie's support in New Hampshire is down 50% from the support he had in New Hampshire in 2016 (60.1%)., and was down the equivalent amount in Iowa. That tells me that Sanders' support was in two parts: 30% or so are his dedicated base voters, but 30% were people who, for whatever reason, didn't like Hillary Clinton, and Sanders was the only alternative. As soon as they have alternatives (like this year) they leave Bernie behind. Not the basis for building a "revolution".

[mainstreetonce]

1. I like the way you explained that

Thanks
Go good guys!

[Peacetrain]

2. He lost half the vote in Iowa also..and we did not have this

huge turnout predicted. ...

[bluewater]

3. lol the Support is down from 2016 meme! Gotta love it! lol

At this rate Bernie is going to "support is down from 2016" his way to the 2020 nomination.


Pssst. 2020 is a multi-candidate race. Pass it on.

[brooklynite]

5. I think I just said that...

...why is that good news?

[bluewater]

8. Becuase it's not bad news? It's an apples to oranges comparison.

Every election cycle is unique in its own way. This year is a very unique multicandidate race with 4-5 strong contenders, not just 2 as in 2016.

Again, I jus love this "support is down from 2016" meme. Again, at this rate Bernie is going to "support is down from 2016" his way to the 2020 nomination.

[Champion Jack]

11. exactly

[still_one]

4. Also two of the tracking polls indicate 30% of voters in N.H. say they may still change their vote

This was reported on Bloomberg

[thesquanderer]

6. Why is Bernie not being able to hold onto all his 2016 voters any worse than...

...Biden not being able to hold on to all Hillary's 2016 voters? Going in, he was in the same "moderate frontrunner, presumed nominee" position she was but actually has better favorables than she did.

If the answer you come up with for that one is "more competition," the same applies to Bernie. Or do you another answer that doesn't?

[squirecam]

9. Biden and Hillary are two different people.

Nt

[George II]

7. Don't know what you mean by trend data, but in the last week his support has gone from:

25.6 to 28.5 (up 2.9%), but Buttigieg's support has gone from 14.8 to 22.0 (up 7.2%) That shows Sanders losing ground. Plus, as you point out, his support this time around is less than half in the last cycle.

Someone who is from the neighboring state with virtually the same demographics and economics and geography should be attracting more support.

[msongs]

10. once again at least 70% don't want him lol nt

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. There is not a solid basis for that conclusion

For example, accepting your assumption, let's agree that only half of Bernie's's 2016 support was strongly behind him as their enthusiastic first choice. Your next conclusion is flawed: "but 30% were people who, for whatever reason, didn't like Hillary Clinton, and Sanders was the only alternative." Sanders may have been the only alternative, but all of our political races ultimately come down to a binary choice. It just happened much sooner than usual in 2016. What about voters who liked Hillary well enough in 2016, but who preferred both Warren and Sanders over her, in that order? This year they get to vote for Warren if they want to as their first choice. And what about a working class voter who thinks both Biden and Sanders stand up for the little guy? In 2016 that person may have voted for Sanders but this year they finally get a chance to vote for Biden. That person might still pick Sanders as their second choice.

You characterize half of Sander's 2016 support as only "anti-Clinton". Sure, there was some of that. There are always some who vote against someone rather than for anyone. What makes you think that any of our candidates in this crowded filed would not have polled much better than they now do if it was a two person race instead? Do you think Biden would poll higher than he now does if the race was boiled down to him and Bernie? If it was Biden running in 2016 rather than Hillary in a two person race, do you doubt for a second that he would have won over 40% of the vote under those circumstances rather than the 10% to 20% that he's likely to win this time?

The better question is whether any of our candidates other than Sanders can count on the strong enthusiasm of most of the voters who select them at this stage.

[Nanjeanne]

13. Good news: Bernie is leading NH Primary. No bad news because there are lots more candidates and

Bernie is still ahead.