Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(48,966 posts) Mon Feb 10, 2020, 04:17 PM Feb 2020

Nate Silver: Sanders' relatively low absolute vote share more notable than his being in the lead

That's the gist of what he's saying in posts pointing out that the new Quinnipiac poll, despite showing Sanders ahead, actually increased their model's odds for a brokered convention rather than the odds of Sanders having enough delegates to win the nomination by the time we get to the convention.

Link to tweet

Link to their forecast:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

Before the Quinnipiac poll came out, and a couple new NH polls, Sanders was at 47% or 48%. He's currently at 43%.

"No one" getting enough delegates was at 23% or 24% and is now at 26%.

And if anyone thinks these calculations are unfair to Sanders, I suggest they remember all the posts saying Biden was a weak front-runner for being below 40% in polls.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

6 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Nate Silver: Sanders' relatively low absolute vote share more notable than his being in the lead (Original Post) highplainsdem Feb 2020 OP

How interesting! Tiggeroshii Feb 2020 #1

I guess it's call gambling . . . Iliyah Feb 2020 #2

Aha Me. Feb 2020 #3

The three most-recent polls are Sanders +8, Biden +5, and Biden +4. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #4

Yep, 1,00000+ wisteria Feb 2020 #5

K&R Tarheel_Dem Feb 2020 #6

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

1. How interesting!

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 04:31 PM

Feb 2020

I'm guessing the results of NH, like the results of IA, will have a profound affect on the overall model. Given what happened in IA, it doesn't seem we can count on anything, really. espcially how the model bases the end projection on who wins the individual states prior to. Each contest is so fluid and and tenuous, that each one has the chance to completely change the projected outcome significantly (like Iowa).

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)

2. I guess it's call gambling . . .

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 04:32 PM

Feb 2020

Iowa, and then NH . . .

Anywho, I've been reading that Bloomberg is moving on up. 24/7 commercials here in California from him. He aligns himself with Pres O. Commercials reflect what Democrats request for, plus some of his commercials are striking shithole with laser precision.

LOL

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Me.

(35,454 posts)

3. Aha

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 05:10 PM

Feb 2020

well let the BS group continue to fool themselves and someone else's win will sneak up on them.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(25,462 posts)

4. The three most-recent polls are Sanders +8, Biden +5, and Biden +4.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 05:17 PM

Feb 2020

They clearly can't all be right. NH polls are all over the place.

The Q poll looks completely out-of-whack, but it's usually pretty solid. I have no idea.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden