So far, after one caucus, and one primary,

[guillaumeb]

involving a tiny percentage of the electorate, what do we really know for certain about who the eventual nominee will be?

True, the media, ever alert for the chance to use the "Democrats in disarray" meme, will be quick to tell us all what to think, and how this candidate or that candidate is:

fatally weakened,

on the ropes,

energized and unstoppable,

totally disorganized

or another tired, stale, and silly so-called insight.

But only a handful of voters have actually spoken by casting a vote. And yes, there will be probably a trillion or so polls cited here, and by the media, to support their 1,001 theories of who will win and what will happen.

In the meantime, get out and register people.

Talk to people.

Canvass for a candidate, or candidates.

Hold a house party.

Donate.

And remember that we are the majority, and the GOP fears our votes, which is why they spend so much time, money, and effort trying to prevent us from voting.

[still_one]

1. What do we know who the eventual nominee will be? NOT A DAMN THING

[guillaumeb]

2. And we do know that the media will pretend to know everything.

Ratings and revenue.

[still_one]

3. +++

[Garrett78]

4. We know Warren and Biden are in trouble. Klobuchar may or may not be.

5th in Iowa should have been devastating for Klobuchar but the Iowa chaos (and Biden being a weak 'frontrunner') has given her a lifeline. She was able to stay above the fray at the debate because she wasn't a threat to anyone, and she took advantage with a solid performance.

But Warren and Biden are in serious trouble.

[guillaumeb]

5. So far, 2 out of 50 states have voted.

All we read here is opinion.

[Garrett78]

6. And within the DU bubble, we hear all about how IA and NH don't matter. In the real world...

...history shows that they're wrong.

I've explained repeatedly why references to Bill Clinton and 1992 doesn't support the idea that Biden isn't in trouble.

Warren needed to do better in Iowa and really needs a strong showing in NH.

[guillaumeb]

8. In 2008, Obama won Iowa, and lost New Hampshire.

The reverse for HRC.

Every state matters, but opinion based on so little actual information is just that.

[Garrett78]

11. You're talking about candidates coming in 1st/2nd. I'm talking about candidates coming in 4th/5th.

There's a world of difference there.

[redqueen]

7. K&R! nt

[guillaumeb]

9. As I said in another thread,

this is not a 90 minute movie. It will be a long process.

[sheshe2]

10. Correct. nt