What makes anyone think SC will be any different than IA & NH?

[Drunken Irishman]

Diversity of the electorate withstanding, Biden's support in the first two states has collapsed. That's telling. Biden's not just losing, he's getting absolutely manhandled. There's no dismissing that because he's actually faired far worse in both states than the polls were predicting.

In Iowa, he did four-points worse than the polls suggested and was the only candidate, outside Stayer, who actually did worse overall compared to the pre-caucus polls.

In New Hampshire, it's looking like he's going to do three-points worse and that's not even comparing his totals to polls from a month ago when he was leading. Biden has seen a complete deterioration of support since the new year. And hoping somehow his fortunes will change in NV or SC is hoping against hope.

I really hate saying it but Biden is done. He's going to lose Nevada badly and SC is going to be irrelevant by that point as Biden has not proven at all he's a viable candidate. At this rate, I think Bloomberg wins SC as people of color abandon his campaign for fear it's completely sinking.

I hope I'm wrong but I don't see how Biden comes back from this. I had low expectations for both these states and Biden still failed to meet them.

[krissey]

1. I wanted Harris to stay in because I never felt Biden had it.

[Cha]

2. Yeah, we'll see. Bookmarking.

[still_one]

23. We will see how the polls go in the next 10 days Cha, but unless Biden and Warren are able

To reverse the trend, I think they should consider dropping out before Super Tuesday to give voters an opportunity to get behind the most viable candidates.

Like you said we will see, but I am ready to jump on the Amy or Pete bandwagon, because I think Amy, Joe, or Pete have the best chance to beat trump, but Joe if doesn’t do well in S.C., I think he should throw his support behind Amy or Pete

One thing I like about Amy is she could be the payback for what they did to Hillary

[Cha]

28. I'm just not letting the caucusy, non diverse

low turnout, state of Iowa get to me. Or the non diverse state of NH that BS won by 22% last time, either.

I'm actually just smh at all those jumping ship now. Anything can happen.

Biden does have his work cut out for him in SC with the gop's plans to RF the open primaries.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[still_one]

40. I agree Cha, that is why S.C. is critical for Joe. He refers to it as the firewall

If he does well in S.C., that bodes well for him on Super Tuesday, and all this is much a do about nothing

[Cha]

43. I'm just hoping trumpgops can't FUBAR the open primaries..

If he's going to lose I want it to be done honestly.

[still_one]

47. Absolutely

[calguy]

58. SC is key for my support of Biden

If Biden does not do well, I'll be voting for Bloomberg on Super Tuesday. Still think Joe would be the president, but he won't get there if he can't get traction in the early primary states.

[Cha]

61. I know.. and if it's up to the gop he won't.

[still_one]

80. That is what I will be evaluating also for my Super Tuesday vote. If Joe does well in SC

I think he will do well on Super Tuesday

[denem]

49. still_one - Klobuchar does not even have an office in California.

[calguy]

60. That's Amy's problem

She doesn't have the cash or staff to carry on an effective campaign going forward. Tonight might be her best showing. She'd do well to concentrate on running for the VP slot.

[still_one]

65. Really. That may have to do with funding though. She may get a boost from N.H. coming

in third, and that may change things

I think if Biden does well in S.C., he will do well on Super Tuesday

As he said that is his firewall

While some may not appreciate my next comment, and I may not appreciate it my self, maybe Bloomberg is the Democratic Party’s firewall

[brush]

63. 2 tiny, all-white states with candidates getting single-digit delegates decides nothing.

Thousands of delegates are needed. Let's stop this silly, jumping-the-gun. Iowa and NH don't define today's Democratic Party.

48 other states still get to help decide.

[still_one]

67. True, but you can count on the media hyping to no end

[Recursion]

74. I mean, it would be weird for them to step aside for someone they're beating

particularly if the argument is viability, and the states Biden is hoping to surge in are states we absolutely aren't going to take in November.

[W_HAMILTON]

3. Michael Bloomberg isn't on the ballot in SC.

[Celerity]

72. yet he is already at 8.2% in SC and climbing daily at 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/south-carolina/

[W_HAMILTON]

75. He shouldn't even be included in the polls there.

He isn't on the ballot and it is virtually a guarantee that he won't win via write-in vote.

Most pollsters weren't even including him in the earlier polls of the early states where he wasn't on the ballot, but I guess maybe they started including him because of his traction in the national numbers. Either way, he won't be winning South Carolina and his 8.2% of the vote will probably shrink to maybe 1-2% of write-ins and the rest of his votes will probably go to Biden or maybe Steyer.

[Celerity]

76. remains to be seen what his final % is, write-in totals can sometimes be surprisingly high

Murkowski won a general via write-ins for Senate, and in 2004, in the NH Rethug primary, Democratic candidates actually got 12% or so versus Bush



http://www.leinsdorf.com/NewHampshirePrimary2004.htm

[W_HAMILTON]

77. This is a far different situation.

If black voters leave Biden and go for a billionaire blanketing the airwaves with TV ads, they will go to Steyer, whose name will actually be on the ballot and who has been airing commercials in the state for much longer than Bloomberg has.

[uponit7771]

90. +1

[DrToast]

4. He's in a lot of trouble, no doubt.

[UniteFightBack]

5. Gee Whiz what makes SC different?? HMMMM oh black people live there. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Yes and they too may abandon Biden just like others.

[UniteFightBack]

15. That's fine they'll go to Bloomberg and then so will I. There is NO DOUBT about that. nt

[jimfields33]

69. Not in South Carolina though

Bloomberg is not on the ballot. In fact, I wonder how many state ballots he made. He came in pretty late in the primary season and some states had cut offs.

[Cha]

35. ".. may.." may not.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Drunken Irishman]

70. I'd be very surprised if they stick with him.

There's no reason to at this point. Especially if he loses Nevada badly. If they're serious about supporting someone other than Bernie, they're going to go with the candidate who has the best shot of winning and that isn't Biden at the moment.

[uponit7771]

91. There's only one outlier poll showing this

[Gore1FL]

27. My graduating class in high school was 93% African American.

It's Normandy High School of St. Louis Missouri. (also the more recent alma-matter of late Micheal Brown).

High School is the largest part of my Facebook Community. The vast majority of my former classmates in that realm support Sanders. Many, to my sadness, supported Stein over Hillary. These people are in their 40s, 50s, and 60s.

This is anecdotal and not statistically valid information. It demonstrates that Biden doesn't have a lock on the African American, vote, however.

[UniteFightBack]

30. I agree it's not a lock but a hold and if he loses their love they'll move right over to Bloomie.

And I'm good with that.

[Gore1FL]

56. I don't know what the attraction is to the right.

It's a 1988 philosophy that never really worked. In the interceding 30 years the Democrats have abandoned he left to chase republican votes they will never get.

I'd rather appeal to disaffected voters, new voters, etc. who share my values than chase a middle to the right.

I submit we lose because winning seems to be more important than what we believe in. I've watched the Democrats capitulate for 40 years. I'm kind of tired of it.

[padah513]

82. I don't know

In 2018 the moderates, those in the middle, took the house so I believe the middle is always worth the effort, but why can't we do both? Appeal to the new and disaffected, and chase the middle.

[Gore1FL]

88. The 30 year chase to the middle has created the disaffected on the left.

All along, it hasn't really gained us any moderates. It just loses us elections.

[Garrett78]

62. When the candidates are graded on their positions through a racial equity lens...

...Warren and Sanders do best (A-/B+). Biden, on the other hand, gets an F. And Bloomberg is a total disaster.

And surveys show huge support for what we in the US call "far left" positions.

But perceptions of viability and electability play a major role, especially for those who can least afford political losses. However, the electorate is changing and Sanders is becoming increasingly electable. We need to understand that opposition to the status quo is very, very strong right now.

Also, many people overestimate true swing voters (they're a pretty small group and what they tend to swing against is the status quo and whichever party has been in power) and completely misunderstand so-called "independents." Independents are not middle-of-the-road. They're very partisan but dislike partisanship. The average independent today is more partisan (more likely to consistently support a single party) than the average party-affiliated voter of the 1970s. They're also less likely to vote than party-affiliated voters.

The idea that we win by selecting a candidate or running a campaign who will appeal to middle-of-the-road voters (who are, in reality, few and far between) is fatally flawed.

[Locrian]

84. thank you

The mental gymnastics going on here to justify **Bloomberg** as our best candidate are stunning.
He's about as close to a mainstream republican as you can possibly get.
But now he's supposed to be our savior? The rich, wealthy, elite with boat-loads of money? Seriously?

Never mind his history - stop and frisk, republican, etc. And he's going to get the poc vote? Just crazy.

[cherryinpa]

6. Very disappointed in today.

I was sure Biden would come in #2 or #3.

At this stage I’m starting to that Klobuchar might be the best bet.

She’s not as radioactive as Bernie but has the mass appeal.

[UniteFightBack]

17. She doesn't appeal to black people and she is not even trying!! That is a problem. We will see

if it remains one. I just don't see black folks voting for Amy or Pete...oh hell no.

[uponit7771]

92. Not with 2 neighboring candidates running in NH, what did people expect ?!

[Blue_true]

7. I have to agree with you. Joe is running a lackluster race.

He just can't keep hanging in finishing way behind.

[still_one]

8. I think the same thing can be speculated for Warren also. If in the next 10 days the poll numbers

for Warren and Biden continue to slide, I think they should consider dropping out before Super Tuesday to give the voters an opportunity to vote for more viable candidates

[DrToast]

10. They're both in trouble.

[still_one]

29. Yup, and while I will see what the polls say in the next 10 days, if Biden or Warren

cannot reverse the downward trend, and if Biden does not do well in S.C., I really think he needs to drop out before Super Tuesday, to give more viable candidates, Amy or Pete a chance

What I like about Amy, besides her realistic approach on the issues, is if she is the nominee, an extra bonus is payback to what they did to Hillary

Pete and Amy also have youth on their side

[wisteria]

33. Any is the flavor of the week

What exactly do people really know about her?

[still_one]

50. Her positions on the issues are quite close to Joe's.

https://www.ontheissues.org/Amy_Klobuchar.htm

If Joe does well in S.C., he will do well on Super Tuesday

[wisteria]

32. Sorry to disappoint you, but Biden isn't going anywhere until after Super Tuesday

And then maybe he will be at the top.

[still_one]

45. If Biden does well in S.C., that bodes well for him on Super Tuesday. As Joe himself says

That is his firewall

[world wide wally]

9. Seems Trumps sliming has worked its magic

[UniteFightBack]

20. Oh absolutely ..it's completely predictable.

And here I thought Dems would rally around and NOT let that happen. Silly silly me.

[Skya Rhen]

24. We eat our own - dontcha know...

[still_one]

31. Skya see what happens In the next 10 days and the S.C. primary. I think we will

have a clearer picture then

If the polls and the S.C. primary indicate Biden isn’t competitive enough, we have Ame or Pete which have similar views

What would be nice about an Amy nomination is it would represent payback for what was done to Hillary

Things can change rapidly though, so don’t give up

[Skya Rhen]

38. Not giving up. As long as Biden remains in this race, I won't be jumping ship. He can count on that.

[still_one]

42. If he does well in S.C., that bodes well for him on Super Tuesday in my view.

Biden refers to S.C. as his firewall, and I think he is right

[DarthDem]

57. I think that's right

Hard to draw any conclusions from IA and NH, which he never seriously contested.

[emmaverybo]

48. +1 eyes welling. Feel the same.

[emmaverybo]

37. Many predicted we would commit political suicide. Trump is very happy, I am sure.

[still_one]

52. As I said above, if Biden does well in S.C., he will do well on Super Tuesday

[emmaverybo]

44. I had hoped. Fickle and divided party, great as it is, will make things tough this election. It

seems many are following MSM’s lead. Flavor of the week, whatever it is, very hot in 2020 primaries. Many appear to crave personality, star power no matter how ephemeral, a high like falling in love.

Qualifications not valued. Liberal principles out the window when a potential “Messiah” appears. Problem is lemmings will sweep us all along.

How two little white states have proved dominant and determinative, I don’t know.

[still_one]

54. Taking Sanders as an example, he lost 50% of the support he had in 2016

According to the national polls, 75% of the Democrats would prefer someone other than Sanders as the nominee

S.C. and Super Tuesday will tell the real story

[emmaverybo]

59. Will they? Biden rises or sinks, but those states, or rather "the buzz," has already altered

perceptions. MSM solidifying them. Silver flinging numbers around accordingly. How long ago was it that Biden was seen as strong? He has not changed. We let those two states change us.

PS Am glad to see a bit of hope through your posts.

[still_one]

64. That buzz missed what happened to Pete in Iowa, and Amy in third place in NH

As for Nate, he is just looking at poll data, and that is extremely volatile right now

If Biden does well in S.C., what you are seeing now will be reversed

[cwydro]

11. I think he's done too.

And he looks exhausted every time I see him. I hope he gets out before being humiliated.

He’s had a great career and has lots to be proud of. He can do a lot of good with his endorsement of whomever he chooses.

[wisteria]

12. I will wait and see.

He is getting clobbered because he is the only candidate getting constant bad press.

[FloridaBlues]

19. We will see how Amy and Pete withstand more vetting,too soon for anyone to drop

[Tipperary]

34. He has been making his own bad press.

A shame.

[emmaverybo]

51. +1000 never have given him fair coverage, in the whole year he was leading. Candidates running

behind him, not even in the same league, earned gushing. He got bashing.

[uponit7771]

13. Lack of regional & neighboring candidates

[highplainsdem]

16. Biden might still get the endorsement of the Culinary Union in Nevada, judging by what

I've read about their warning about Sanders and Warren.

Plus this:

Link to tweet

[emmaverybo]

53. What's up with that? Of course both have softened on M4All, now talking transition, protecting

ACA. It would be a BFD if they’d endorse Biden.

[Docreed2003]

18. Think we can probably thank the orange idiot for that

[Skya Rhen]

21. Bloomberg's strategy is working - cause Biden supporters to panic. Panic even when he's not on SC

ballot.

I remain steadfast.

[Poiuyt]

22. I think this is an example of how Iowa and NH have too much clout in choosing our president

The first primary should be in a state with a more representative population.

[Laelth]

25. SC is very different from IA and NH.

Let me just give you a picture, and this will explain it all.



The African-American voters of South Carolina (the majority of South Carolina Democrats) are not forgetting this.

Look at the tears in Joe's eyes. He will win SC.

-Laelth

[evertonfc]

26. He's in through Super Tuesday. This will drag out

[Tipperary]

39. I think probably so.

I would hope his wife will make him see sense if this trend continues though. I actually feel sorry for the guy. He is a good man.

[IluvPitties]

36. Let the process work. If he loses, he loses.

Let's wait- it's only a couple of weeks away.

[Indykatie]

41. People Should Be Watching SC to See How Pete and Amy Do In A State That Looks

like the Dem party. I still believe that IA and NH don't portend what the outcome will be once we move to states where a broader cross section of the party gets to vote for the first time.

[brooklynite]

46. Quinnipiac has Bloomberg with 22% African American support...

...most coming from Biden.

[jberryhill]

55. A little known fact about Biden is...

...he’s run for president before.

[OliverQ]

66. Surprised to hear a Biden supporter say this.

Other Biden supporters here have said he can't lose.

[Garrett78]

68. Not every Biden supporter is in denial.

[ahoysrcsm]

71. Bernie's NH win is 4-5 points lower than his most recent polls.

Maybe the polls are not a great indicator of voter sentiment?

[Recursion]

73. The problem with lowering expectations in the early races

is that it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. And it may have in this case.

[underpants]

78. Even with SC, the first four are only 4% of the delegates

Patience Grasshopper

Iowa (especially) and NH require a lot of time on the ground both in person and with staff/volunteers. Nevada, pfft who cares. SC tells a lot more about how a candidate can do on Super Tuesday (the campaign too) than spending the summer at Iowa county fairs.

That being said, Joe's campaign has been known to be low energy and they aren't exactly splashing around in money.

Personally I think Bloomberg is taking a smart chance. Skip the first four and concentrate on 96% of the delegates. Of course he has more money than everyone else combined unless you count Putin's money.

[duforsure]

79. I suspect Joe Biden knows its over

Watching his donors dry up. and people vote for others instead of him because he made too many mistakes, and he made poor policy choices. Joe's speaking abilities are not nearly as good as others , so I expect him to continue losing support , like he's done in the past. Now we'll see who wins next time between Amy and Warren, and Warren could be next after Biden to lose out if she doesn't do a lot better.

[still_one]

81. Both Warren and Biden are on shaky ground. I think if Biden does well in S.C. it bodes well for

him on Super Tuesday,

If he doesn’t do well in S.C. I will be looking at Amy, Pete, and Bloomberg for Super Tuesday

I sure am not ruling Biden out. The data and polls indicate that Sanders is vulnerable, and it is more than just too many people in the race. The data suggest he is not able to move beyond is base, but we will see

[duforsure]

83. I agree its still very early

But we'll see in SC how much support Joe and Warren loses to others soon. Money speaks , and candidates losing their fight raising money for their campaigns have only one way to go.

[UncleNoel]

85. Joe never had much suppor there as he does elsewhee..

He made a good shot at it, but these two states were never his winning ticket. His support did not collapse, it was never there. But in Neada and SC he has polled first or second for Nevada fairly consistently and has always polled first in SC. There is no collapse there.

Cheer up, the best part of the race for Joe has just begun!!

[gollygee]

86. Way too early to tell what's going to happen. nt

[Nikki28]

87. I kind of agree

with you there. I love Biden but maybe what Trump did to him worked or maybe he is off his game . I wish we had the Joe 10 yrs ago because he will be moping the floor with everyone.But we don't and I have accepted that a miracle will have to happen for him to get the nom. That said,If he makes it, then I am reserving the right to change my mind.But I also love what Pete,Bloomberg and Liz and Amy are doing too and hope if Joe do not get it, they do.I just have more confidence in them then the rest of the candidates left.

[uponit7771]

89. IA & NH had 4 neighbor candidates this year !!! WTF ?! People smell their own farts

... and don't look at the facts first.