1.7% difference right now.

[William769]

This is huge!

[Legends303]

1. with what percent left?

[Renew Deal]

2. 21% left

Not sure how absentees are counted.

[krissey]

3. Yes it is. And the ones out probably tilt Buttigieg. And, Buttigieg says the numbers are with him.

He is the winner on math.

[Garrett78]

12. Durham (home to Univ. of NH) will increase Sanders's lead.

[Demsrule86]

23. Actually colleges have gone with Buttigieg surprisingly.

[Garrett78]

24. Hanover/Ivy League did. Durham/Univ. of NH is different.

[krissey]

29. Ah. Well, regardless, it has been a fun race. I am happy with results at this point.

[krissey]

27. I had heard it was going to Buttigieg and Klobuchar.

[evertonfc]

4. either way he will lead in delegates

[democrattotheend]

5. This feels like 2008 all over

Except I'm not really invested in a candidate this time. Also, I think Bernie needs to win NH tonight more than Obama did in 2008.

[Laelth]

6. Go Mayor Pete!

A string of 2nd place finishes can propel you to victory, just as it did for Bill Clinton in 1992.



-Laelth

[Blue_true]

11. The South propelled Clinton to the nomination in 92.

He finished way back in Iowa and third in New Hampshire. Then ultimately came South Carolina and the South, where is opened a good gap on the field.

Buttigieg is doing poorly in South Carolina and the South.

I believe that Buttigieg's strong showing tonight coupled with Biden's weak showing opens the door wider for Bloomberg.

[Garrett78]

14. Iowa was nullified by Harkin, and Clinton was 2nd in NH. That 2nd place finish was key.

The "comeback kid" narrative helped make Clinton viable (like tonight, the winner in NH was from New England). Clinton then took the biggest prize on the mini-Super Tuesday (Georgia) and it was basically all over. The only threat he ever faced was from Brown, and that threat was short-lived.

[Blue_true]

20. Thanks for the correction on New Hampshire.

My basic point still stand, the South staked Clinton to a lead that he never gave up. Buttigieg is painfully weak in the South, maybe that changes over the next two weeks.

[Garrett78]

28. Buttigieg's alienation of Black folks and Klobuchar's lack of Black support is why Biden...

...may be clinging to a glimmer of hope.

But unlike Biden, Bill Clinton was finishing top 3 in nearly every contest and had that earth-shattering result in NH. Biden is in big trouble.

[Blue_true]

34. Joe just doesn't seem to be into this.

If he isn't willing to campaign until he drops, then he need to exit the race. I have bad memories of how Hillary campaigned in Florida in 2016, she hit only big cities while Trump blanketed the state, I can't stomach seeing that again, we need a nominee that has the desire to live on the campaign trial, not campaign in spates or in just populated places.

Our nominee has to be willing to campaign even in places like The Villages. Even if our nominee gets egged in red counties, if that results in our nominee reducing Trump's net margin in such places by 2000 votes on average in each one, guess what? Our nominee wins Florida.

[Garrett78]

36. I never thought Biden would be the nominee, or that he should be.

He's failed miserably in his previous attempts. He's loaded with baggage and a gaffe-machine (no, I'm not talking about stuttering--I'm talking about his habit of saying really stupid shit).

[Demsrule86]

25. That is what I am hoping for Biden...Carolina...New Hampshire means nothing for Biden.

But for Sanders...well I just don't think it was a strong showing.

[Laelth]

31. Not strong enough, imo. n/t

-Laelth

[Demsrule86]

39. Buttigieg had no AA support and with what happened with the police chief, he

is unlikely to win any. So we can see how Nevada and Carolina play out but IMHO he is out by super Tuesday if not before...same thing with Klobachar. Biden has a good chance of winning Carolina and doing well or winning Nevada. If not, I vote for Bloomberg. We have to kick Trump out now before he gets stronger.

[Blue_true]

33. The race as it was tonight can't continue.

In the next two weeks, Biden, Buttigieg or klobuchar, or all three must drop out of the race.

Bloomberg is in the next debate, it will be interesting to see how he does. I think Sanders will come after him hard on Stop and Frisk, but such an attack leaves Bernie vulnerable, Bernie repeatedly voted against the Brady Bill, a vote which allowed guns to show up on the streets of big cities like NYC and forced leaders in those cities to figure out how to get guns off the streets.

[Demsrule86]

38. Biden should go to Carolina and super Tuesday. Two small uber

white states are meaningless.

[Laelth]

30. Quite possibly. We shall see what we see. n/t

-Laelth

[TwilightZone]

7. Might be a tie in delegates, which means Pete would be the front-runner.

Still.

[Laelth]

9. Yep. That appears to be the lay of the land.

Who woulda thunk it?



Remember: Democrats win when they run young and energetic people (JFK, Carter, Clinton, Obama). This has been the trend for the last 60 years. Mayor Pete fits the bill.

-Laelth

[Garrett78]

15. Given his alienation of Black folks, I don't think he can be considered the front-runner.

Delegate leader, sure, but I just can't see Buttigieg winning the nomination.

[TwilightZone]

17. Stranger things have happened.

We're only two contests in and expectations were pretty much turned upside down. If Bloomberg can overcome "stop and frisk" to rise to second with AA voters (according to Quinnipiac), who knows what else can happen.

[Garrett78]

18. Political junkies know about "stop and frisk" and other horrific things about Bloomberg.

But most of the country, I'm sure, does not yet know much about Bloomberg.

[TwilightZone]

19. Stop and frisk was national news.

Lots of people know about it, even outside the political sphere.

[Garrett78]

22. National news sucks in the ratings and is not on the radar for most people.

A massive number of people can't so much as name the Vice President.

[TwilightZone]

37. Network news is watched by way more people than cable news.

Any one of the evening network broadcasts (and network morning broadcasts, for that matter) is routinely watched by significantly more people than the highest rated cable news programs and always has been. The ratio of network vs. cable news was roughly 10:1 in the first few years of stop and frisk when it was in the news frequently.

From 2007: "Far more people watch the three network evening newscasts than prime time cable news shows— roughly ten times more."

https://www.journalism.org/numbers/cable-news-vs-network-news-viewership/

From Sept 2019: "In the big picture for network news, viewership again sagged across the board, yet median audiences still thumped the competition on cable. The third-place CBS Evening News, for example, drew an average of 5.82 million viewers a night in 2018-19, while cable’s leading nightly news program, Fox’s Hannity, tallied 3.1 million viewers in the second quarter of 2019, according to Adweek."

"World News Tonight dipped a mere 0.3 million in total viewers from 2018 but led the network field in 2019 with 8.56 million nightly viewers–outperforming the 7.90 million grossed by the NBC Nightly News."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/russespinoza/2019/09/24/abc-and-nbc-split-network-news-ratings-crown-for-2018-19-tv-season/#7fa5607d7cd9

[Garrett78]

40. In a nation of more than 320 million people.

Never underestimate the ignorance of the American people.

[Demsrule86]

26. He shouldn't win the nomination ...with that amount of AA support he loses the general.

[Blue_true]

35. For me Buttigieg has served his purpose.

He has denied Sanders outright victories in the first two states and has put a question mark beside Sanders. The Nevada debate will be pivotal because Bloomberg is in it and I expect Sanders to go after Bloomberg hard, especially on Stop and Frisk, which is a double-edged knife for Sanders given Sanders' votes against the Brady Bill and other gun control bills. I am sure that Bloomberg's campaign want Sanders in particular to come after Bloomberg on Stop and Frisk, Bloomberg would have a tougher time with that attack coming from Warren or Klobuchar.

[sheshe2]

8. Kick!

[TwilightZone]

10. Vox is now projecting a Bernie win. 1.6% lead with 83% reporting.

They must think there aren't enough votes left to make up the gap.

Apparently, ABC just called it as well.

Much closer than expected, and Amy had a big night.

[William769]

13. Yes she did.

[Garrett78]

16. With Durham outstanding, Sanders's lead will likely increase.

[Baclava]

21. NBC projects BERNIE WINS NH

Delegate math

Pete 23

Bernie 21

Liz 8

Amy 7

Biden 6

[ismnotwasm]

32. Holy crap

Did NOT see Mayor Pete coming.