Since Sanders supporters point out that there are more candidates this time, lets be fair...

[brooklynite]

Progressive
Sanders 26.1
Warren 9.4
Total 35.5

Moderate
Buttigieg 24.3
Klobuchar 19.8
Biden 8.4
Total 52.5

And this, of course, doesn't include Bloomberg.

[squirecam]

1. Math is hard work

Nt

[democrattotheend]

2. I don't think it's quite that simple

Plus, I would put Yang in the progressive column and he got about 3%.

But it doesn't break down 1:1 like that. Buttigieg seems pretty progressive, moreso than the other "moderates", and a lot of people seemed to be between Bernie and Biden in polls a few weeks ago.

That said, I'm a little annoyed that Bernie decided to start his speech before Pete was done, knowing they'd have to cut to him because he won. Not cool. I hate when candidates do this.

[radical noodle]

6. I'm sure he did it purposely

I wanted to see all of Pete's speech.

[KPN]

28. That's an interesting observation and perhaps

valid. I say interesting because I had the opposite reaction. It struck me that Buttigieg was pre-empting Sanders (already the predicted winner at the time) and grabbing the stage/media focus by coming out first to make his speech. I didn’t really find it annoying, but did notice and remarked to my wife about it. Though I favor Sanders and Warren over Buttigieg, I find it hard not to really like him, so my reaction was more “smart move” by Pete rather than annoyance with him. It also made sense to me that Sanders got priority once he walked on the stage. He won, he deserved it and it was a smart move on his part if, in fact, he intentionally bumped Buttigieg. That may or may not be the case.

[democrattotheend]

36. I thought the race hadn't been called yet when Pete started speaking

It hadn't been called yet on MSNBC - they interrupted his speech briefly to call the race and then cut back to it until Bernie started speaking. Had it been called on other networks? If so, my assessment may have been wrong.

[still_one]

3. Thank you, and another reason why it is quite foolish for a campaign to marginalize what they

consider as “centrist” candidates

[UniteFightBack]

4. I think Steyer and Gabbards numbers could be added to the mod's and yang to the progs. We

still carry a substantial margin...the realist wing that is.

[DanTex]

5. LOL.

[Horizens]

7. A Closer Look

SOCIALISTS
Sanders 26.1

Total 26.1

CAPITALISTS
Buttugieg 24.3
Klobuchar 19.8
Warren 9.4
Biden 8.4
Other 12.00

Total 73.9

[Cha]

10. snap

[TwilightZone]

12. Ok, that made me laugh.

Thanks.

[krissey]

17. Agreed. Many of Warren are HRC supporters. No way would I be on team Sanders.

[Quixote1818]

19. Sanders is a Capitalist too. Just to a lesser extent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/20/upshot/bernie-sanders-democratic-socialist-capitalist.html

[Horizens]

22. Well Then

All those times Sanders said he was a socialist he was lying.

[Garrett78]

34. Every Democrat gets called a socialist.

I suspect the people who are swayed by the label aren't all that sophisticated. In other words, I doubt they'll be any more likely to be convinced to oppose Sanders than they would be convinced to oppose any other Democrat who might be nominated (and inevitably get affixed with the socialism label). They'll either vote to oust Trump or they won't. The title of the following article is misleading, as Bitecofer doesn't argue that there aren't any swing voters, but people should heed what she's saying: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944. It's hard for people to accept that long-standing conventional wisdom doesn't hold up any longer.

A bigger concern ought to be nominating someone who will suppress turnout of all those people who are fed up with the status quo, because that's the moment we're in right now.

And Bloomberg would be an absolute disaster once more and more people learn the truth about him (it's easy to stay above the fray and buy TV ads, but that only works for so long--eventually you have to actually campaign and debate and be subjected to social media scrutiny).

This is an article everyone should take to heart: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/9/20750160/liberalism-trump-putin-socialism-reactionary.

[madaboutharry]

26. Post of the night.

[calguy]

8. Until we see what Bloomberg does, we don't really know

Bloomberg is the elephant in the room. His presence looms large going forward.

[FBaggins]

9. The post is self-contradictory

If you can summarize the overall vote by tallying total progressive vs. total moderate... why would it matter if a given candidate was not included? Surely he would just shuffle around the proportions in his category?

[Garrett78]

11. Sanders, though, is the 2nd choice for many of those (outside of DU) supporting moderates.

[TwilightZone]

14. The dynamics of the race have changed.

If the primary goal of those moderate voters was to get rid of Trump, they may coalesce behind another moderate candidate instead of Sanders should theirs withdraw. The race isn't the same as it was a week or two ago.

[herding cats]

20. This is true.

I'm extremely happy to see two of my favorites rise to the top. I do hope it helps carry them forward more.

Time will tell, but tonight I dance in the clouds.

[Bonobo]

13. Alternatively (and just as plausibly)

Candidates over 70
Sanders 26.1
Warren 9.4
Biden 8.4
Total 43.9

Candidates under 60
Buttigieg 24.3
Klobuchar 19.8
Total 44.1


My point is, you drew an arbitrary line. Not everyone divides candidates as you suggest.

And even if they did, what's the point? When all is said and done, we must unite.

[TwilightZone]

15. Political ideology isn't an arbitrary line.

Certainly not to many on DU, particularly Sanders supporters. The line seems to be placed just to the right of Sanders and everyone else is on the other side.

It's certainly less arbitrary than age, which many of the same people have insisted is totally irrelevant.

[aikoaiko]

16. Too bad it's not a team sport.

[herding cats]

18. Break it down to the top 3 tonight.

That's how it usually works. Klobuchar and Buttigieg cumulatively show a pattern. People aren't decided on who, sure. The pattern is still there all the same.

Who will rise to the top remains to be seen, but in such a liberal leaning state this actually means something.

[Garrett78]

29. New Hampshire is a purple state.

[KPN]

32. Yup. The State as a whole is quite conservative --

so the results are not all that surprising. Buttigieg and Klobuchar are both pretty darned liberal in comparison to the State as a whole.

[KPN]

31. +1

[Horizens]

21. An Even Closer Look at the

NH Democratic Primary

DEMOCRATS
Buttugieg 24.3
Klobuchar 19.8
Warren 9.4
Biden 8.4
Other 12.00

Total 73.9


NOT DEMOCRATS
Sanders 26.1

Total 26.1

[mattclearing]

23. There seem to be a lot of assertions of interchangeable support here.

I don’t think it’s fair to the voters to assume that they are all moderate Dems just because they currently support a moderate Dem. The candidates and their supporters aren’t as homogenous as we like to assume. Sometimes it’s a personality thing, sometimes it’s a calculation of who can win, and yes, sometimes it’s the person they agree with the most on policy.

[herding cats]

24. True, but I'm not yet convinced 2020 will be about policy as much as some think.

I'm in the camp it'll be a moratorium against Trump.

Tonight seems to feed my hypothesis so far. Time will tell, of course.

[rownesheck]

25. I love Warren,

but I can tell you, at this point I don't give a flying flip about policy. To me, it's about waking the fuck up out of this Nightmare on Elm Street horror show. Get dipshit out of office, hopefully spend the next 4 years sending all those A- holes to prison, then worry about policy. I know, policy is important, but I'm in a mood now where I want these pigs to suffer mightily.

[True Blue American]

27. Yang and Bennett

Dropped out.

[Garrett78]

30. Yeah, lazy pundits and many DU members are making simplistic assumptions about the electorate.

Reality is much messier.

[Amimnoch]

33. What's going to be really interesting is when candidates who have pledged delegates

start dropping out.

And who they will, in turn, endorse.

I anticipate some very happy people here, and some very pissed off people here when that starts happening.

[LuvLoogie]

35. I think Bernie only gets half of Liz' supporters

if she drops out.

[mattclearing]

37. That sounds about right to me. More or less depending on how viable he is at the time. nt