Given the imperative of defeating Trump, is it now time to get behind Bernie who looks inevitable?

[NewsCenter28]

I hate to even be having to post this about a candidate who I have SERIOUS concerns over the electability of and who is the farthest thing in the world from my first, second, third, or EVEN 4th choice, but given that the party seems to be coalescing around Bernie as the inevitable nominee, would it be better to allow Bernie basically an entire year to focus on defeating Trump rather than trying to herd cats in a fractious primary for the next 6 months+? In other words, is it time for us to play the cards we were dealt rather than the cards we wish we had?

Very annoyed that I'm having to make this post at all. I mean, WTF???

I don't think I'm quite there yet, but I'm becoming increasingly resigned and dejected; and if he wins Nevada too, I think I'll have to reluctantly accept his nomination.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. No.

[Quackers]

2. Bernie is not inevitable. nt

[highplainsdem]

3. Way too early for this. Sanders is NOT looking inevitable.

[apcalc]

4. No. It is much too early. Dunno about other states,

But my state of PA will not have him winning, imo.

[Renew Deal]

5. Bernie underperformed almost every NH poll

And his 2016 performance by a lot.

[NewsCenter28]

14. Thanks for the replies so far. ALSO very importantly

Please understand how dejected I am feeling over this result. The most important thing to me is defeating Trump and if other people have decided that Bernie is the best one to do that, I guess I reluctantly have to get behind the only person that will have a chance of defeating Trump by virtue of being the nominee of the other major party.

He's won both IA and NH now. Usually people who do that, it's a game over victory for (like Kerry 2004 and Gore 2000).

I understand that he underperformed the polls vastly, but Jake Tapper was already building him up on CNN as "the undisputed" frontrunner and Chris Hayes seems in love (which I thought Chris was smarter than that!).

[Renew Deal]

22. There is certainly an argument to be had about whether he is the current front runner.

Though Buttigieg has more actual delegates after NH. We'll see. I suspect things will change soon. Will Warren stay in? Will Biden continue to tank? Is Klobuchar's support in NH anomalous? She has no infrastructure outside of IA and NH.

[Demsrule86]

35. I don't believe that for a minute...the fact that Buttigieg takes more delegates and is so close...

A supporter would not quit... come on...just change the picture.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

55. It's not game over.

NH winners who didn't get the nomination; Paul Tsongas (1992), Hillary Clinton (2008).
Previous Iowa winners who didn't get the nomination: Edmund Muskie (1972), Uncommitted (1976), Richard Gephardt (1988), Tom Harkin (1992).

[Cha]

6. omg.. I can't even.. bye.

[Tipperary]

11. Ha, you said it better than I. nt

[emmaverybo]

47. [phone]

[Cha]

53. lol BS lost Iowa and tied Pete in NH..

and from that..

[Tipperary]

7. Bernie looks inevitable?

Seriously?

[democrattotheend]

8. No, not yet

Let's at least let some more diverse states vote before we start pushing anyone out.

Plus, the party establishment isn't coalescing around Bernie - they won't unless they absolutely have to. And even then they might go through the motions but put most of the resources downballot. And Bernie is handicapping himself a bit by making such a big deal about billionaire money. I admire him for it, but I'm also worried about it. If Bloomberg is willing to spend lots of money to defeat Trump any Democrat would be crazy not to take advantage of that.

[Demsrule86]

31. That wouldn't be a bad idea ...try to save the house and get the Senate so Trump can't appoint

judges...we won't win with Sanders.

[msongs]

9. overwhelming majority of voters tell bernie to go away lolo0lol nt

[dalton99a]

10. Yes, the people of New Hampshire have spoken. Bernie is our next president

[Demsrule86]

29. No, he might be the nominee...it is possible, but I believe unlikely. However, he will never win

a general. Yes he has my vote...but he won't win.

[MFGsunny]

12. NO to your question. n/t

[handmade34]

13. no

[Bev54]

15. I don't see this win the same way

With the amount of support he received last time, he is down considerably, which says to me that it was more a protest vote in 2016 against Hillary, rather than a strong Sanders support. If he had received over 40% then perhaps he would show his strength but he barely inked out a win tonight and the moderates far outweighed his progressive platform. I wouldn't panic over this at all it is a long way from over. Wait until super Tuesday and see what is happening and see where the support goes from the ones that dropped out.

[NewsCenter28]

19. I hope you're right-let me just say this

We are NOT winning the presidency this year with BS as our nominee. This result is just all kinds of fucked up.

Praying that he doesn't win NV/SC. THAT would be the first ray of hope all year.

[Demsrule86]

24. He won't win SC but he did pretty well in Nevada...but on Super Tuesday...I don't think he does well

And that will be after a shellacking in Carolina which brings home the truth...he can't win AA voters.

[Codeine]

16. Transparent. nt

[NewsCenter28]

20. DON'T YOU DARE

Yeah sure I'm making a super-secret 4-dimensional post secretly supporting Bernie. Whatever floats your boat.

[MontanaFarmer]

17. He's the furthest he's been all year from inevitable.

He nearly blew new Hampshire. No. No. No. He's had 2 lily white states and he's not even leading in delegates. Long way to go here.

[Lefta Dissenter]

18. Huh?

I just donated a little bit to Pete and to Amy. You’re just giving up? 🤷?♀️

[NewsCenter28]

23. Jake Tapper of CNN and Chris Hayes of MSNBC are spinning this as a huge win for BS

And that's what got me started.

BTW, bookmark this post. I'll eat crow if I'm wrong.

[UniteFightBack]

30. It's a 'huge win' by a small fraction with much less voters supporting him. LESS not more nt

[NYMinute]

43. Chris Hays has always been a devotee, losing all objectivity

when he gushes for BS.

[Demsrule86]

21. Oh please, after two tiny White states? No. Sanders will lose a general...I will never

vote for him in any primary. I will vote for Bloomberg should Biden falter,but I think once we hit some diverse states Sanders is in for a surprise.

[NewsCenter28]

28. From your lips to god ears-demsrule86

Trump should be the existential threat this year, not someone in our primary who isn't even really a democrat for fucks' sake!! Trump will deliver enough stress this year. Didn't need this at all!

[Demsrule86]

67. We can't give up . Our country and our kid's future is on the line.

[Cha]

37. BS is Behind in Delegates..

ABC has reported the delegates won tonight....
Buttigieg - 9
Sanders - 9
Klobuchar - 6

Totals to date:

Buttigieg - 23
Sanders - 21
Warren - 8
Klobuchar - 7
Biden - 6

Delegate-wise, Buttigieg has now won one state and tied the other.

[Demsrule86]

66. Hi Cha... great point.

[Mme. Defarge]

25. Non,

absolument pas.

[UniteFightBack]

26. I agree with you...I'm annoyed you made this post too...WTF. nt

[yardwork]

63. That made me laugh!

[TwilightZone]

27. No, if the others coalesced behind one candidate, Bernie would be done.

The problem, of course, is how to determine who that candidate should be.

[NewsCenter28]

32. Nicole Wallace said no one in the GOP in 2016

coalesced behind the anti-Trump and that's how he won. She went onto say she doesn't see a coalescing on our side of the anti-Bernie, not yet anyway. She further added that what do you get when you don't coalesce, someone winning with 25%, 30%, 35%.

Nevada and SC rejected Bernie soundly in 2016. Time for them to do so again or else this is a fucking shit show.

[TexasTowelie]

33. No.

[CentralMass]

34. I'm already there but this is a horse race.

[Dem2]

36. 26%?

I'm not buying this inevitable thing just yet. This is just the beginning.

[katmondoo]

38. No.

[Cal Carpenter]

39. Probably can wait till after Super Tuesday

before you need to worry. Bloomberg's not even in it yet. Things will change. It's early.

I wouldn't be mad if that happened though, lol

[NYMinute]

40. ...

[greenjar_01]

41. How I will get behind Bernie

1) Purchase industrial strength gas mask
2) Put on Hazmat suit
3) Travel to the small island of Tureameau, where the local inhabitants are known for their long practice of learning to hold their breaths for upwards of 30-40 minutes
4) Study with the greatest master breath holders of Tureameau for as long as I can
5) Purchase nose plugs
6) Get plastic surgery to reduce the size of my nostrils
7) Invent an expanding foam that would assure a tight seal of nostril + nose plug
8) Insert nose plug, spray nostril sealing foam, put on gas mask, don hazmat suit, travel to polling place
9) Begin Tureameauian Breath Holding Ritual
10) Vote for Bernard Sanders for President

[Lefta Dissenter]

61. 😂

but tell us how you really feel!

[BlueIdaho]

42. Seriously?

Love that “inevitable” tag...

[Laelth]

44. This is nonsense. n/t

-Laelth

[MFM008]

45. No

Death is inevitable.
Taxes are probable.
Sanders barely beat Pete.
Lets see how things go till super Tuesday.
Before we hit our fainting couches.

[Zambero]

46. Inevitable is not so much anymore

Things change quickly, if the past 3 weeks are any indication. No one dreamed that Klobuchar would surge to this extent straight out of the barrel, in the first two primaries no less. A month ago my guy Biden was safely in the lead and only Warren seemed to pose much of a threat. And tonight in NH both of them had disappointing second tier finishes. As Joe noted tonight, thus far 99.9% of eligible black voters have not yet cast ballots, and neither have 99.6% of Latino voters. Let's see some results from a few states that include a higher measure of diversity in their ranks before coalescing on the Bernie bandwagon.

[sheshe2]

48. Two very white states voted and you are calling the election for Bernie.

NewsCenter28
0. Given the imperative of defeating Trump, is it now time to get behind Bernie who looks inevitable?

I hate to even be having to post this about a candidate who I have SERIOUS concerns over the electability of and who is the farthest thing in the world from my first, second, third, or EVEN 4th choice, but given that the party seems to be coalescing around Bernie as the inevitable nominee, would it be better to allow Bernie basically an entire year to focus on defeating Trump rather than trying to herd cats in a fractious primary for the next 6 months+? In other words, is it time for us to play the cards we were dealt rather than the cards we wish we had?

Fact is he lost one of them. Yet you are calling the election for Bernie. Two states voted and you are giving the election to BS.

Not one diverse state has voted and you are calling the election for Bernie.

SMDH.

[Happyhippychick]

49. It's funny you say this when you're a Pete supporter and Pete is ahead in delegates

Sure is funny.

[DanTex]

50. It's going to come down to Bernie vs Bloomberg.

You're right that Biden, Pete, Amy, Warren are probably out at this point. But Bloomberg is not.

[BlueMTexpat]

64. Well, DT,

please check back in a couple months and let's see how that prediction worked out.

Bernie's main strengths shine primarily in caucuses and open primaries. See, e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_election#Presidential_primaries

Primary classifications

While it is clear that the closed/semi-closed/semi-open/open classification commonly used by scholars studying primary systems does not fully explain the highly nuanced differences seen from state to state, still, it is very useful and has real-world implications for the electorate, election officials, and the candidates themselves.

As far as the electorate is concerned, the extent of participation allowed to weak partisans and independents depends almost solely on which of the aforementioned categories best describes their state's primary system. Clearly, open and semi-open systems favor this type of voter, since they can choose which primary they vote in on a yearly basis under these models. In closed primary systems, true independents are, for all practical purposes, shut out of the process.

This classification further affects the relationship between primary elections and election commissioners and officials. The more open the system, the greater the chance of raiding, or voters voting in the other party's primary in hopes of getting a weaker opponent chosen to run against a strong candidate in the general election. [Emphasis mine.] Raiding has proven stressful to the relationships between political parties, who feel cheated by the system, and election officials, who try to make the system run as smoothly as possible.

Perhaps the most dramatic effect this classification system has on the primary process is its influence on the candidates themselves. Whether a system is open or closed dictates the way candidates run their campaigns. In a closed system, from the time a candidate qualifies to the day of the primary, he tends to have to cater to partisans, who tend to lean to the more extreme ends of the ideological spectrum. In the general election, under the assumptions of the median voter theorem, the candidate must move more towards the center in hopes of capturing a plurality.

[Green Line]

51. No

[BlueTsunami2018]

52. We've had two contests in tiny states with zero reflection of the party in general.

And you want to anoint him already?

After Super Tuesday we’ll have a much better idea where we stand.

I’m all for getting behind the nominee when we have one but it’s way too early for this. Hardly anyone has voted yet.

[EveHammond13]

54. ????????????????????????????????????????????? No.

[tritsofme]

56. This post is ridiculous. Let's do better.

[Dream Girl]

57. WTF are you for real?

[Blue_true]

58. What tonight did was kick open the door for Bloomberg.

If Bernie goes after Bloomberg on Stop and Frisk, like I expect Bernie to do, that opens up Bernie's gun votes that allowed guns to come into big cities. Will be interesting to see how Bloomberg parries the attack that I expect to see from Bernie. If Bernie goes after Bloomberg on climate, Bernie loses that part of the debate full stop.

[Cha]

60. Interesting analysis.. thanks!

[Liberty Belle]

59. Wait until SuperTuesday, which could either award hundreds of delegates to Sanders,

or bump up some other candidate(s) if a state like California with lots of delegates goes some other way.

[BlueMTexpat]

62. No. Just no.

Go with your heart in the primaries.

That's what they're for.

Only a small percentage of the electorate have voted. There's lots more to come.

[gollygee]

65. Too early to assume that

We've had two small states that are not very representative of the US as a whole.

[honest.abe]

68. Good grief. Sanders is not inevitable.. in fact quite the opposite.

There is no way he gets enough AA votes to take the nomination. He has burned too many bridges with black voters. He cannot win without strong black support.

[Turin_C3PO]

69. It's not over yet.

The way I see it is Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg have an equal chance at grabbing the nomination at this point. Unfortunately, it looks like my second choice, Warren, won’t be a contender this time. Hope I’m wrong.

[Bettie]

70. There have been TWO states

who have done their process so far.

No one needs to get behind anyone but their own choice at this point.

[LexVegas]

71. Your first election, huh?