Will Biden and Warren drop out after South Carolina and drive Bernie over 50%?

[Bumperstickers]

Very interesting because every single poll has both Biden and Warren voters listing Sanders as their second choice. If that becomes the case and you add in Yang and Gabbard voters who both list Sanders as their second choice would mean Sanders over 50 % of the vote on Super Tuesday.

[wisteria]

1. No, Biden isn't going to drop out.

These two losses were factored in to Biden’s strategy.

[Zambero]

8. Before going with Sanders

And if Joe was to leave the race (unlikely), I would favor Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, or Warren. We have a deep bench comprised of real Democrats.

[thesquanderer]

30. He could drop out after SC (the OP's premise) if he underperforms there

even if only for running out of money..

[duforsure]

31. I agree

He'll stumble into SC and again find his support is leaving him now, and his donors too.

[katmondoo]

2. I still can't get on the Bernie bandwagon

New Hampshire was never much of a determining factor in the past.

[Garrett78]

13. IA and NH, combined, have historically had a huge impact.

In the last 40 years, only 1 candidate from either party has won the nomination without winning at least 1 of those 2 states. And that 1 exception to the rule was propelled forward precisely because of his strong 2nd place finish in New Hampshire (in a year in which Iowa was nullified by there being an Iowan in the race).

[PatSeg]

25. I can't either

I still don't think he will be good in a general election against Trump and that scares the hell out of me.

[blm]

3. No. Warren planned past Iowa and NH and is organized in 31 states.

She is now n 3rd place in delegate count.

[relayerbob]

4. No

They are in it through Super Tuesday, at the very least. And don't count on all of Warren's supporters going to Sanders. Or Biden, especially if Bloomberg shows up.

[marlakay]

5. I think Warren will wait until

After Super Tuesday. Then make a decision.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

6. No.

[Vivienne235729]

7. No. Only in Bernie's dreams. Biden and Warren's favored states are coming up.

The race has only begun. It should get a whole lot more interesting. Buckle up.

[Skid Rogue]

9. Everyone will wait until Super Tuesday. nt

[Laelth]

10. No. I don't think so. n/t

-Laelth

[squirecam]

11. The second choice of Biden voters

Was clearly NOT Sanders in New Hampshire. They went mostly to Amy and Pete. Undecided voters also broke heavily for Amy and Pete instead of Sanders.

Sanders has a strong base. But also he has a ceiling of 40% or so.

The moderates are going to swap votes between them. Bernie needs all of them to stay in. Once it’s 1v1, he’s going to lose.

[W_HAMILTON]

12. LOL

[AmericanGraffiti]

14. I personally think

it is time for Warren to drop out and endorse Sanders. Whether she will or not is another question.

Biden won't drop out till after South Carolina.

[blm]

27. Why should Sanders keep getting the credit for her years of hard work?

[BlueMTexpat]

32. You KNOW why.

[ehrnst]

38. +1000.

But this attitude is no surprise whatsoever...

[OnlinePoker]

15. Every single poll...

Look how out of whack the polls were for NH. The RCP average had Bernie winning by over 7% and Amy (in the last two polls yesterday) getting only 14%. Pollsters, in an era where people don't have landlines, are having a heck of a time getting accurate information and it shows in the quality of what gets put out.

[Stallion]

16. I Doubt Bernie EVER Gets Over 35%

New Hampshire and Iowa are not representative of the Democratic electorate because most of us are actually Democrats. Sanders is literally the last candidate I'd voted for not named Trump or Gabbard

[thesquanderer]

42. If the race gets down to 2 people and Bernie is one of them....

...I could see potential for some 50% states.

[padah513]

17. My God it never stops.

Two states down. Sanders lost one and barely won the second, both he was heavily favored to win.

[sweetloukillbot]

29. No one seems to be talking much about how he's underperforming

Not even talking the 60% to 25%, he was polling around 30% wasn't he?
Winning by barely 1% in New Hampshire should give people pause about his overall viability.
We'll see in Nevada.

[Tiggeroshii]

18. Any scenario where Bernie runs away with it is absolutely unacceptable here

Especially if it happens.

[House of Roberts]

19. I wouldn't count on anything

with Bloomberg carpet-bombing ads all over the place.

[NoMoreRepugs]

20. All these prognostications are based on

results from less than 2% of the country voting, 80+% white and somehow that’s definitive of what the entire Democratic Party wants???

Seriously??

[padah513]

23. Your % was a little low. It's 90+% white.

Iowa is 90.28% and New Hampshire 93.03%. It's all about the demographics and they're about to swing dramatically.

[NoMoreRepugs]

40. Eggsactly.

[stonecutter357]

21. Donald Trump is a racist pig !

[oasis]

22. Hell no.

[DarthDem]

24. Er

No.

[spooky3]

26. Please link to those polls. Your assertion is not consistent with what has been reported

on MSNBC, e.g., the 2nd choices in the Iowa caucuses, and it isn't consistent with common sense.

[emmaverybo]

28. Anything is possible, but some things improbable. Your scenario is such a case. Neither Warren nor

Biden are handing the primary to Bernie. He will have to win it with them in it.

[madville]

33. While I believe Bernie can win many more states, I don't

Think his ceiling is higher than 35%. I do believe that Bloomberg entering on Super Tuesday will help Bernie by further splitting the moderate vote, which is probably around 60% of the Democratic Party but when you split it 3 or 4 ways that really helps Sanders.

[BlueMTexpat]

34. No.

A thousand times, no.

All these extremely premature predictions happen every election cycle.

Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar will now be getting more scrutiny, as a result of NH. Watch where the media sheep head.

Scrutiny is a good thing. GOPers certainly know where each one will be vulnerable in a GE. That may be exactly why that person could receive favorable coverage now. It's counter-intuitive in some ways, but generally predictable, as per the past several election cycles. Watch and see.

You can also bet that where any one of our candidates isn't clearly vulnerable, GOPers will manufacture something to make them sound vulnerable.

They've practically run through the list with Warren already. She's still standing tall overall, despite NH, and she's not yet cash-strapped.

[brooklynite]

35. If Biden drops out, his support will go to Bloomberg.

[obamanut2012]

37. I tend to agree with this

The majority will, with some supporters going to Warren, Klobuchar, and Pete.

[obamanut2012]

36. Biden and Warren are not dropping out

My second choice would be Harris if she was still in, but since she isn't, it's Klobuchar. Then Biden.

[yardwork]

39. This Warren supporter doesn't have Sanders as my second choice.

Any hope that I might switch to Sanders in the primary disappeared the day Sanders supporters flooded the internet with green snakes.

I think that a lot of Warren's supporters probably feel the same way.

[obamanut2012]

41. +1

Warren was my choice until very recently -- but tbh, it could be easily be either Amy or Warren. I actually voted for Warren in my mail-in ballot here in FL.

After Klobuchar and Warren, it would be Biden.