Where Bernie's missing votes went...

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

Looks like the candidate who brought new voters in was Pete

[Fresh_Start]

1. what were the inputs into the model?

exit polls about 2016 v 2020 choices?
i'm guessing this is not proportional.
If bernie had retained more than 50% of his prior voters....I think he should have ended up with more than 26%

[dsc]

4. remember turnout was lower in 16

so the percents don't directly translate.

[Fresh_Start]

7. thank you for the reminder

i find it to be an interesting graph

[NurseJackie]

2. Another "Bernie-myth" busted!

Looks like the candidate who brought new voters in was Pete

Another "Bernie-myth" busted! (Along with the popular myth that "Bernie-votes-with-the-Democrats-99%-of-the-time". We now know he doesn't.)

[Mike 03]

3. Fascinating. The flow of "non voters" is also interesting.

A large proportion poured into Mayor Pete.

[Fresh_Start]

6. I don't think its representative of non-voters per se

its representative of 2016 non-voters who voted in 2020.
which is probably a very small share of non-voters

but they are the people we should be talking to to understand...why they are voting this year and not the prior year

[Mike 03]

10. I see. Thanks for the clarification!

That is an interesting sub-group though; they also appear to be strongly drawn to Amy Klobuchar.

[SWBTATTReg]

5. Thanks for sharing. This is a neat chart too. I appreciate it! nt

[Fresh_Start]

8. I read an article about leadership..

that said in times of turmoil we look for younger leaders
in times of stability we look for more mature leaders

[Democrats Ascendant]

9. Interesting how many Clinton voters went to Klobuchar...

I got that feeling as I was watching "Klomentum" over the weekend, and was reminded of the movement Clinton's way back in '08.

Thanks for posting!

[krissey]

11. Good information. Very telling. I am surprised more aren't commenting.

[KayF]

12. i've never seen a graph like that

it's pretty, it would make a nice scarf

[W_HAMILTON]

13. How does Sanders win the nomination if this trend continues?

In a state tailormade for him, he is basically getting very little of the Clinton vote (~10%?), very little of the non-voters/new voters vote (~5%?) and he has lost a sizable chunk of his support from 2016 (~35%?) in a race he was beaten by ~4m votes.

It looks like his only path to the nomination is hoping the rest of the vote remains fractured thus allowing him to limp into first place in the delegate race while receiving a super weak plurality of the total delegates (~35% or less?).

[squirecam]

14. Agreed

Nt

[MH1]

16. Hopefully he doesn't. I'd like to eject Trump.

That is the most important thing and it is highly unlikely to happen, if Sanders is the nominee.

[Laelth]

15. Nifty. Thanks for posting. n/t

-Laelth