Sanders ekes one out, but the revolution has yet to arrive

[highplainsdem]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/12/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire-observations-114304

But if this was an enormously disappointing night for the two people who once seemed like they would be fighting a one-on-one fight for the nomination through the spring, it was hardly an overwhelming thumping by Bernie Sanders. Even counting for the fact that in 2016 he was in a two-person race, the comparison with his smashing victory over Hillary Clinton (22 points and 60 percent of the vote) and, as of late Tuesday night, his less-than-2-point squeaker over Buttigieg, is notable. Sanders dominated the state in 2016, winning every county. Buttigieg and Klobuchar ripped holes through that map everywhere, turning color-coded maps from 2016 that showed a Sanders rout into a patchwork of colors.

Perhaps more important, Sanders overpromised and underdelivered. He has premised his campaign on nothing less than sparking a political revolution in which disaffected and first-time voters — especially young ones — pour into American politics to carry him to the White House. It didn’t happen in Iowa, and it didn’t happen in New Hampshire.

The percentage of young voters actually declined from 2016 to 2020 in New Hampshire, from 19 percent to 14 percent. Independents were a larger share of the electorate, but they did not break nearly as decisively for Sanders as they did in 2016. He received support from just 29 percent of self-described independents this time, as opposed to 73 percent (!) in 2016. Buttigieg, who is derided by Sanders supporters as “Mayo Pete” and “Wall Street Pete,” ran competitively with that group at 24 percent.

Two states down and no revolution yet.

[samnsara]

1. it does appear the moderates are winning out..

[NurseJackie]

2. Reasonable voters will prevail. Thankfully.

I've had enough of the extremes.

[still_one]

10. Thank you. Must better characterization. Those so-called moderates are progressive by any standard

except those who subscribe to the purist ideology of what liberal is

It was those damn moderates who gave us S.C. justices like Ruth Badder Ginsberg, Medicare and Medicaid, food stamps the Civil Rights Act, fought for women’s rights, workers rights, the environment etc, etc, etc

[PatSeg]

22. I agree

I'm tired of hearing the tag "moderate" applied to liberal progressives. Lately the word moderate has become a dirty word in some factions of the Democratic party. By their standards, FDR would have been a, god-forbid, moderate. Extremes in politics rarely produce anything you could call positive, they produce discord and chaos.

So many good Democrats have been pulling the party more to the left, where it belongs, but the extremists want to pull us off a cliff.

[LiberalFighter]

20. Personally I would consider anyone progressive that wins the nomination and beats Trump.

[DaDeacon]

9. Moderates have not won the popular vote in any state?!?! Yet

There are more Moderates running so maybe the field is too big but not Singel Moderate has yet to win a state in a popular vote. So guess...things look good.

[Iliyah]

3. WOW, Mayor Peter . . .

Didn't I read where new/younger voter went with him?

[Nanjeanne]

24. If you read that, it's wrong. He actually won more than the next 4 combined.

Link to tweet

[ahoysrcsm]

25. If only the under 30 crowd shows up in record numbers.

He won NH receiving 25.7% support over Buttigieg 24.4%, 1.3%, a narrow victory.

Last polls for NH Monday, February 10 show:
CNN/UNH Sanders 29, Buttigieg 22. Sanders +7
Boston Globe/Suffolk Sanders 27, Buttigieg 19. Sanders +8
WHDH/Emerson Sanders 30, Buttigieg 23. Sanders +7
UMass Lowell Sanders 25, Buttigieg 17. Sanders +8
Quinnipiac Sanders 25, Biden 17. Sanders +8

The Revolution forgot to vote...

[Nanjeanne]

26. Ok. The young despite data didn't come out, didn't support him, he didn't win

the popular vote in both states and he is stalled in first place.

Got it!

[ahoysrcsm]

30. Based on delegates alone, the only thing that will get him to the GE...

Based on delegates alone, he is in second place. Waiting on Nevada and South Carolina, he might get to first place by Super Tuesday.

[still_one]

4. The question is can Sanders move beyond his core support. So far the only candidates that have

demonstrated that from what I can see are Amy and Pete

Nevada and S.C. are going be key for all the candidates, and whoever does well in S.C. I believe will do well on Super Tuesday

[Happyhippychick]

5. You can't sustain political enthusiasm for 5 years

He's been campaigning since 2015. It's a long time for his supporters to stay enthused.

[brooklynite]

6. Rock concerts help...

[Happyhippychick]

8. But not enough! If you're lucky, you get that moment in time. It's not possible to pause it

and come back. Doesn't work. Isn't working.

What was the concert by the way? I heard about it.

[still_one]

14. Losing more than 50% support is more than not keeping people enthused. His message isn't

resonating the way it did

[PatSeg]

23. And it is unlikely

he is expanding his support. People have had a chance to get a better look at Bernie and his brand is not attracting new voters. He seems to be recycling some, but not all, of his 2016 voters. Meanwhile, his original supporters' enthusiasm has in some cases morphed into zealous extremism.

[denem]

7. Half the Berners went up in smoke.

Sanders - 152,193 votes in '16 and 73,470* in 2020
*97% counted.

[DaDeacon]

12. There were 2 candidates in 2016. total number of votes cast are outpacing 2016.

[denem]

13. More than half Sanders '16 voters went elsewhere

or stayed at home. Those are the facts.

The Sanders campaign was better organized, better funded, had much better data and flopped.

[DaDeacon]

15. Yet he still got more votes that the other Candidates...

that's how we win right....?!?!

[denem]

18. Can't argue with that.

Winners are grinners

[Celerity]

19. but less delegates, for now

[LanternWaste]

29. The wins are delegate counts. Try again.

[still_one]

16. and most of those other votes are not going toward his solutions on the issues, but toward other

candidates with different solutions on the issues

Granted it is still very early in the process, and Super Tuesday will present a more realistic picture, especially since more diverse states have been incorporated into Super Tuesday so we shall see what happens

[Bonobo]

17. An old Jewish man with a heavy Brooklyn accident and a recent heart attack wins the first two races?

Dude, THAT is already a revolutionary thing.

He did to Biden what Biden promised he would do to Trump a thousand times.

He beat him like a drum.

[ahoysrcsm]

28. First two... if only Sanders supporters were not so delusional.

Iowa Caucus; Pete Buttigieg 14 delegates, Bernie Sanders 12 delegates.
New Hampshire Primary; Bernie Sanders 9 delegates, Pete Buttigieg 9 delegates.

Based on delegates alone, the only thing that matters, Sanders lost Iowa by 2 and tied a Mayor in NH.

Oh well, Nevada Caucus is just around the corner, and South Carolina after that.

[dalton99a]

21. Eh, the Revolution has been televised for years

[at140]

27. If Warren drops out, who will get her voters?

I would think Bernie gets lions share of Warren voters.