538's forecast this morning drops Sanders' chances to 37%, "No one" up to 34%

[highplainsdem]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[bluewater]

1. Biden's chances are at 17%. Ouch.

Buttigieg at 5%, Bloomberg at 4%, Warren at 3%.

Huh. Sanders's 37% looks pretty good in comparison, right?



I wish my candidate was at 37% chance of winning the nomination. Seriously.

[jimfields33]

3. Absolutely it does especially since the next person is 20 percent lower then him.

[TwilightZone]

2. Bernie's average is nearly 500 under what's needed for a majority.

Yet, he's still at 37%. Interesting. Momentum must be a large factor (or assumption) in the calculations.

[Baclava]

4. Stupid projections are garbage, they are worthless, 97% chance 49ers win with 7 minutes to gol

Dream big

[LaurenOlimina]

5. Five Thirty Eight says Bided has a 1-in-6 chance. Sanders gets a 2-in-5 chance.

Sanders gets a 2-in-5 chance...

Pete is 1-in-20
Everybody else is worse.

Those numbers will move though.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. The winner will have fewer liabilities than the others, experience, and a heartfelt message

By those criteria, admittedly my own brew, Biden, Bloomberg, Klobuchar are in the hunt. But Biden has to step on the gas the way Obama always did. Surely he learned something from the President.

[still_one]

7. Way too early for any momentum assessment, and I don't think Pete and Amy's standing has

had time to be factored in

Also, what happens in S.C. will determine the viability of Biden, and if Biden does well in S.C. I would expect him to do well on Super Tuesday

Things can change very quickly

[bluewater]

9. Sorry, but Momentum has already Impacted the Polling. Biden has plummeted.

Last edited Wed Feb 12, 2020, 10:49 AM - Edit history (1)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

No getting around that.

For better or worse, Iowa and New Hampshire have had enormous impact on the polling.

Biden has dropped dramatically.

[Iliyah]

8. VP Biden still in it. . . .

I'm surprised about Mayor Pete tho, hopefully he will move up a tad.

I am a Pat Mahomes fan as well as a 49ers fan. Knew if the 49ers kept the ground game and advanced (because the Chief's defense wasn't that strong) they had a better chance of winning. The 49ers defense is one of the best in the league and if they could kept Pat Mahomes from passing, they would win.

Almost happened. But in the last 7 minutes, things changed in favor of the Chiefs. Actually the Chiefs turned thing around from previous games also.

At this point in time regarding the Democratic primary, things can change when you least expect it.

[still_one]

10. Of course he is, but S.C. is a make or break for him