The NH/SC Paradox

[Tom Rinaldo]

Heading into the 2008 NH primary off of her third place finish in Iowa. it looked like Hillary Clinton was in serious trouble, that Barack Obama was on a roll and nothing would stop him. Then Hillary Clinton pulled off an upset win in NH and suddenly all bets were off. In 2016 Hillary Clinton entered the presidential race as all but the presumptive Democratic nominee. Bernie Sanders did surprisingly well in Iowa but still, all Clinton had to do to cement her path to the nomination was to roughly hold her own in NH, where a narrow Sanders win could be dismissed as home field advantage. Bernie Sanders blew Clinton out in NH that year and suddenly all bets were off.

This year Bernie Sanders entered the NH primary with the chance to build potentially unstoppable momentum. Another impressive win there and he would, for the moment at least, be running well ahead of the pack. Bernie pulled off a win in NH true, but it was a narrow one. Instead of distancing himself from the filed in NH he finds himself facing two new challengers who depart from that race with strong signs of fresh momentum themselves.

But now, as in cycles past, the presidential race turns sharply away from nearly all white fields of battle. In both 2008 and 2016, after inconclusive skirmishes in Nevada, the South Carolina primary recast the presidential races, restoring strength first to Barack Obama in 2008, and four years later to Hillary Clinton, propelling each on to their respective Democratic Party nominations. There would me more than a small measure of irony in the outcome if it was People of Color, first in Nevada, but more crucially in South Carolina, that gave Bernie Sanders fresh momentum, and restored a growing sense of inevitability to his quest to head the Democratic Party ticket.

That once seemingly unlikely scenario is suddenly now plausible. As much as Bernie Sanders may have seen his chances of ultimate victory blunted by the rise of Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar in New Hampshire, they have equally been boosted by the near total collapse of both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren in that state. In the case of a fading Warren, it allows Sanders to firmly establish himself now as the progressive choice for the presidency. In the case of a fading Biden, it potentially opens wide a door for Sanders to the African American vote. Couple Biden's collapse with the release of tapes revealing Bloomberg's let's say prior "insensitivity" to the racial implications of Stop and Frisk, and Sanders could become the leading vote getter among African American voters in SC.

A recent Quinnipiac pre NH primary poll showed Sanders ranking in the top tier for African Americans voters considering Democratic presidential candidates, scoring 19% support, clustered within ten points of both Biden and Bloomberg. Trailing far behind Elizabeth Warren had twice the support inside that crucial voting bloc as did Pete Buttigieg. Warren had 8% backing. Buttiege had 4% backing, and Klobuchar failed to gain even 1% support from Blacks. Biden no longer has the aura of a winner. Bloomberg won't even be on the SC ballot. Could it be that African American support inside SC could put Sanders in the drivers seat heading into Super Tuesday?

[TexasTowelie]

1. Q. Could it be that African American support inside SC could put Sanders in the drivers seat heading

into Super Tuesday?

A. No.

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. So are you expecting SC African Americans to stick with Biden?

If so, why? If not, what happens to their votes?

[TexasTowelie]

3. Yes.

Why? 1) Because Bernie hasn't campaigned in South Carolina or any other southern state in several months except for when he attended the debates in Atlanta and Houston. 2) Because Bernie has not addressed the concerns of those voters.

[bluewater]

4. Time will tell

And soon.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. Fair enough

Although your second point is arguably subjective, especially with those Black voters who helped him reach double digit support, more so than anyone other than Biden and maybe Bloomberg.

Biden did far worse than the worst expectations for him. I'm sorry, but fourth place in Iowa followed by 5th place in NH is pretty terrible for someone with 100% voter familiarity running on the argument that he is the only one who can win in November.

[BeyondGeography]

5. A lot of them are already going to Bloomberg

Bernie has an obvious electability problem in the minds of most Democrats. Trump has warped everything in favor of the seemingly safe bet. As a Warren supporter, I can relate. How else to explain the strength of Buttigieg? A smart guy, but, really? Bernie is a lot of things but "safe" isn't one of them. The first two contests have shown there's a huge anyone-but-lefty vote out there, try 3/4 of the friggin party, Tom. Team Sanders can be excused for not appreciating the depth of their predicament. Who would have predicted even a week ago that Pete and Amy would nearly double Bernie's vote total in NH? Black voters even in "normal" times have traditionally avoided insurgent candidates. With Biden down, a huge chunk will go to Bloomberg, problematic policing tactics and all. It's already happening.

[Skya Rhen]

7. A lot of "them"? Bloomberg is not on the SC ballot so Biden will win SC and have the momentum needed

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. If Biden eeks out a victory in South Carolona it won't help him much

What helped Hillary in 2016 was that she won resounding victories in the South and piled up delegates doing so. I see next to zero chance now of Biden winning convincingly in SC. If he wins with a small plurality it will keep him in the race but won't inspire a lot of confidence that he could be our strongest candidate. It could however further splinter the "moderate" vote going into Super Tuesday.

[womanofthehills]

13. but the GOP is telling Republicans to vote for Bernie in SC (open primaries)

so this has to be factored in.. Biden is only polling 5 points ahead of Sanders in SC - with the Republican vote Sanders will probably win.

[Celerity]

8. Steyer too, he is up a lot in some polls, and is making inroads with the A-A vote nt

[PatSeg]

9. Recently Jason Johnson

said on MSNBC that the first priority of African American voters is to defeat Trump. Too often pundits try to paint an unrealistic picture of what AA people want in a president. Like us, they want to get rid of Trump and by a much bigger percentage than among white voters.

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. I agree that Bloomberg , even off the ballot, is Sander's main rival for those voters now

But it is about to get a whole lot more personal for Bloomberg who has been campaigning from 30,000 feet above the fray. He has been subject to virtually zero scrutiny about anything other than the impact of his 200 Million dollar ad campaign up until yesterday. I do not foresee Pete or Amy gaining a whole lot of traction among Black voters in SC over the next 10 days, and Sanders is looking a lot more electable than Biden nowadays.

I hear what you are saying about "safe" votes and insurgencies, I really do. But perceptions of "safe" can change with shifting momentum. If Biden had gotten even 13% of the vote in NH he might still be seen as viable. 8% is a bitter pill though. Will Black voters embrace Bloomberg now as their preferred candidate? That is an open question.

[squirecam]

11. It's what many have been saying all along

Sanders has a ceiling. In order for him to win, he needs everyone to stay in. Once he is 1v1, he is going to lose to the moderate.

Trump won because the base of the repubs wanted a douche who made fun of others. And his 1v1 opponent was Cruz, who wasn’t as entertaining to the base.

New Hampshire showed that undecided broke late for Pete and Amy. Former Biden voters broke late for Pete and Amy. Even some Warren voters broke for them rather then Sanders.

If Bernie starts getting the lions share of AA vote, he will be the nominee. But I don’t see that as likely. And Biden isn’t dead yet. He can save himself in South Carolina.

The NV debate is going to be interesting.

[Laelth]

14. I have nothing to add to this interesting discussion.

I merely wished to remark that the OP is beautifully written.



-Laelth

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. Thank You.

It was kind of you to share that.